{"id":39901,"date":"2019-01-05T17:26:20","date_gmt":"2019-01-05T11:56:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=39901"},"modified":"2019-01-05T17:26:20","modified_gmt":"2019-01-05T11:56:20","slug":"india-afghanistan-relations-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/india-afghanistan-relations-2\/","title":{"rendered":"India Afghanistan Relations:"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Context:<\/strong> US recently announced withdrawal of 7000 US troops from Afghanistan, a decision which would reduce its presence in Afghanistan by half and would force India to rethink its Afghan Policy.<\/p>\n<p><strong>US\u2019 South Asia\/ Afghan Policy 2017: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>US announced deployment of additional 4000 troops in Afghanistan to train Afghan soldiers to avoid the collapse of Kabul government by creating a vacuum for terrorists.<\/li>\n<li>US warned Pakistan for its support to terror havens which lead to instability in Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<li>US refused to engage with Taliban without involving Afghan government in the process.<\/li>\n<li>US recognized India\u2019s contributions to stability in Afghanistan and expected India to play a more proactive role in Afghan development.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Recent developments vis-\u00e0-vis Afghanistan around the world: <\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>US wants to reduce its military presence in foreign states i.e. in Afghanistan and Syria.<\/li>\n<li>US wants the regional players like India, China and Pakistan to play more active role in Afghanistan by sending their troops to Afghanistan, as it considers these players to be direct beneficiaries of Afghanistan stability.<\/li>\n<li>US, in a changed attitude, has initiated direct talks with Taliban representatives,by appointing special envoy Zalmay Khalilzad in September 2018 to lead talks with the Taliban, without taking Afghan government in the loop.<\/li>\n<li>In contrast with its criticism of Pakistan, US recently praised Pakistan for its stabilizing efforts in the region.<\/li>\n<li>Russia held a meeting \u2018Moscow Format\u2019 to discuss Afghan question in which India was represented unofficially by former diplomats, which marks a drastic shift from rejection to unofficial talks with Taliban.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<div class=\"bluebox\"><b>Moscow Format:<\/b><br \/>\n\u2022 It was a meeting of world leaders, held in Moscow, Russia, in November 2018, to discuss future of Afghan polity, Taliban\u2019s role in it and Taliban\u2019s acceptability among world leaders.<br \/>\n\u2022 \u2018Moscow format\u2019 was organised by Russia. Earlier the meeting was called off due to non-participation of Afghan government, this time meeting was open also to non-government representatives.<br \/>\n\u2022 Deliberations took place on a number of issues surrounding Taliban and its role in Afghanistan.<br \/>\n\u2022 The Afghan government did not send any officials, but four members of the Kabul-based High Peace Council (HPC) attended the event.<br \/>\n\u2022 India was represented in \u2018Moscow Format\u2019 by former diplomats non-officially. The choice of delegates allowed India and Afghanistan distance and deniability about Taliban.<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Impact of US troops withdrawal on India:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Security situation<\/strong>: Weaker American presence in Afghanistan would embolden local militant groups such as the\u00a0Taliban,whose influence could subsequently spread to neighboring\u00a0Pakistan\u00a0and\u00a0Kashmir.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Regional connectivity and related economic concerns<\/strong>: India\u2019s investments of billions in Afghanistan (India is Afghanistan\u2019s largest contributor of development assistance in the region) and plans to connect with Central Asia would be jeopardized if Taliban, being supported by Pakistan, gains ground.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Regional instability:<\/strong> Sudden American withdrawal might create a civil war like situation as various regional stakeholders (China, Russia and Pakistan)will try to reshape the battlefield in accordance with their own strategic priorities, which will hamper India\u2019s long gestated efforts at building Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Isolation of India<\/strong>: India\u2019s displeasure with Taliban is explicit and India was supported by US on this, but post US announcement of withdrawal most of the other stakeholders,like Russia and US, have simply ignored and isolated India\u2019s views and have engaged with Taliban and its sponsors in Pakistan in finding a solution.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>Impact of US withdrawal on the world:<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Spurt in terrorism around the globe: <\/strong>Taliban may join forces with Pakistani militants to create safe havens for terrorists targeting India, the United States and others using the fertile ground as used earlier by Al Qaeda.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Increasing salience of Pakistan in Afghan affairs:<\/strong> In variance with 2017 US policy, which attenuated Pakistan\u2019s role in Afghanistan, US withdrawal has again brought Pakistan at the centre-stage in Afghan politics by raising its geo-strategic importance for other contestants.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Space for external influence: <\/strong>The removal of the U.S. presence from most theatres of action has created space for regional players: leaving Syria to Iran and its allies; Yemen to Saudi Arabia; Afghanistan to players like Russia, Pakistan and Iran; and Pakistan to China.<\/li>\n<li><strong>China\u2019s advance in South Asia:<\/strong>Instability in Afghanistan would give an opportunity for China to make inroads in Afghanistan through its deep pockets, similar to its actions in Sri Lanka, Nepal and Pakistan, thus challenging India\u2019s leadership in South Asia.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>India-Afghanistan engagement:<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>India is committed to <strong>\u201cAfghan-led, Afghan-owned and Afghan controlled\u201d <\/strong>peace process. India\u2019s engagement with Afghanistan is multi-dimensional.<\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-39903\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/over.jpg?resize=437%2C352&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"437\" height=\"352\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/over.jpg?w=437&amp;ssl=1 437w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/over.jpg?resize=150%2C121&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/over.jpg?resize=300%2C242&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 437px) 100vw, 437px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-39904\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/new-delhi.jpg?resize=453%2C387&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" width=\"453\" height=\"387\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/new-delhi.jpg?w=453&amp;ssl=1 453w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/new-delhi.jpg?resize=150%2C128&amp;ssl=1 150w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/new-delhi.jpg?resize=300%2C256&amp;ssl=1 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 453px) 100vw, 453px\" \/><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"bluebox\"><strong>India\u2019s engagement with Afghanistan vis-\u00e0-vis Taliban has been non-linear:<\/strong><br \/>\n\u2022 Taliban emerged in 1994 in Afghanistan and India refused to recognise the Taliban regime of 1996-2001 in Afghanistan as it was being propped by Pakistan\u2019s army and the ISI.<br \/>\n\u2022 After 9\/11 attacks US crackdown led to the fall of Taliban regime in 2001. When Taliban re-emerged in 2006-07 to challenge US forces, India maintained its distance with it.<br \/>\n\u2022 Post US withdrawal in 2009, Afghan government reached out to Taliban with a peace and reconciliation process.<br \/>\n\u2022 India\u2019s unofficial participation in \u2018Moscow Format\u2019 recently marks a drastic shift from rejection to unofficial talks as this is the first time India shared a room with Taliban.<br \/>\n<b><\/b><\/div>\n<div class=\"bluebox\"><b>Reasons behind India\u2019s changed stance vis-a-vis Afghan Taliban:<\/b><br \/>\n\u2022 US earlier maintained that it would continue its presence in Afghanistan and also gave push to India\u2019s role in Afghanistan. These factors ensured reduced Pakistan\u2019s influence in Afghanistan and also ensured that India\u2019s gains in Afghanistan would not be jeopardized. .<br \/>\n\u2022 India participated because of its desire not to be left out from Afghan deliberations because of Afghanistan\u2019s geostrategic importance for India.<br \/>\n\u2022 By participating in the peace process, India wanted to ensure that Pakistan does not manipulate the terms of reconciliation between the Afghan Taliban and Kabul against India\u2019s favor.<br \/>\nTaliban is gaining stronghold in Afghanistan and increased acceptability among Afghan government and other countries like Russia, China and now US. If it forms a legitimate government in Afghanistan in future, India\u2019s isolation would increase Pakistan\u2019s influence in the region, which requires India to revisit its stand on Taliban.<strong>\u00a0<\/strong><\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Way forward for India<\/strong>:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>S.\u2019s eventual pullout as Afghanistan\u2019s peacekeeper is inevitable, and it would be more prudent for India to prepare for it than to deny it will happen.<\/li>\n<li>By abandoning SAARC in favour of BIMSTEC and BBIN to isolate Pakistan India faced the collateral damage of distancing Afghanistan too in the process. Hence India needs to step-up bilateral engagements with Afghanistan.<\/li>\n<li>The Afghan government has been equally surprised by America\u2019s announcement and has recently shown its detestation for Pakistan by appointing two ministers known for their hardline position on the Taliban and Pakistan, which brings opportunity for India to have closer engagement with Afghan government.<\/li>\n<li>As part of the \u201cIndia-China plus\u201d initiative, New Delhi and Beijing have identified Afghanistan for implementing joint development projects. Similar initiatives should be explored with other like-minded countries like Russia for Afghan growth and development.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Context: US recently announced withdrawal of 7000 US troops from Afghanistan, a decision which would reduce its presence in Afghanistan by half and would force India to rethink its Afghan Policy. US\u2019 South Asia\/ Afghan Policy 2017: US announced deployment of additional 4000 troops in Afghanistan to train Afghan soldiers to avoid the collapse of&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/india-afghanistan-relations-2\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">India Afghanistan Relations:<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":39902,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-39901","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-featured-editorials","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/01\/5b9f96bb8171cc40c45a5e30_India.jpg?fit=1000%2C500&ssl=1","views":{"total":307,"cached_at":""},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39901","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=39901"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/39901\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/39902"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=39901"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=39901"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=39901"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}