{"id":49751,"date":"2019-07-13T19:00:14","date_gmt":"2019-07-13T13:30:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogadmin.forumias.com\/?p=49751"},"modified":"2019-07-13T16:19:42","modified_gmt":"2019-07-13T10:49:42","slug":"7-pm-game-of-chicken-that-can-end-in-disaster-on-u-s-iran-crisis-13th-july-2019","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/7-pm-game-of-chicken-that-can-end-in-disaster-on-u-s-iran-crisis-13th-july-2019\/","title":{"rendered":"7 PM | Game of chicken that can end in disaster- On U.S -Iran crisis | 13th July, 2019"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/drive.google.com\/open?id=1R-6ZH81e-GakesJSTocKxvec-58PDihW\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\" aria-label=\"Read\u00a0In-depth analysis of all the Editorials here (opens in a new tab)\">Read\u00a0In-depth analysis of all the Editorials here<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Context: <\/strong>U.S\nand Iran crisis and its impact on India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>US &#8211; Iran\nProblem:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>1979: <\/strong>The US and Iran are at\nloggerheads since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which witnessed the overthrow of\nthe Shah, an American ally in the Middle East, and brought Iran under a\nclerical regime antagonistic to the US and its involvement in regional\npolitics.<\/li><li><strong>1984<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong> Iran- Iraq War prompted Iran to\nrestart nuclear programme.<\/li><li><strong>1980s and 1990s: <\/strong>US\nsanctions in the 1980s and 1990s were intended to check Iran\u2019s regional\nactivities and compel it to cease support for terrorism. <\/li><li><strong>2002-2015<\/strong><strong>:<\/strong> UN and USA and EU put Economic\nsanctions on Iran<\/li><li><strong>July 14, 2015:<\/strong><strong>&nbsp;<\/strong>Iran Nuclear Deal.<\/li><li><strong>May 8, 2018:<\/strong> US withdrew\nfrom Iran Nuclear Deal.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>What was Iran\nNuclear Deal?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>Formally known as the&nbsp;<strong>Joint\nComprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA),<\/strong>&nbsp;the nuclear deal was\nannounced in&nbsp;2015.<\/li><li>The deal was signed\nbetween Iran and the P5+1 group (US, UK, France, Russia, China and Germany)<\/li><li>It restricts Iran&#8217;s nuclear programme,\nin return for lifting most of the economic sanctions of against it.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key Provisions\nof Deal:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Limits on uranium enrichment: <\/strong>Iran&#8217;s uranium stockpile was reduced by 98% to 300kg (660lbs), a figure that must not be exceeded until 2031. It must also keep the stockpile&#8217;s level of enrichment at 3.67%.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Low-enriched uranium, which has a 3%-4% concentration of\nU-235, can be used to produce fuel for nuclear power plants.\n&#8220;Weapons-grade&#8221; uranium is 90% enriched.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Limits on number of nuclear centrifuges:<\/strong> By January 2016, Iran had drastically reduced the number of centrifuges installed at Natanz and Fordo, and shipped tonnes of low-enriched uranium to Russia. In addition, research and development must take place only at Natanz and be limited until 2024. Centrifuge is a device used to enrich uranium.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"238\" height=\"255\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogadmin.forumias.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/change.jpg?resize=238%2C255&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-49753\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Restrictions on plutonium enrichment:<\/strong> Stopping Iran from operating at Arak nuclear site which was used to make plutonium.<\/li><li>Iran also agreed to implement the Additional Protocol to their <strong>IAEA Safeguards Agreement<\/strong>, which allows inspectors to access any site anywhere in the country they deem suspicious. <\/li><li>The deal increased the <strong>breakout time<\/strong> to 1 year. <em>Breakout time<\/em>\u00a0is the time it would take Iran to produce enough bomb-grade material for a single nuclear weapon.<\/li><li><strong>Lifting of sanctions: <\/strong>Under the deal, Iran gained access to more than $100bn in assets frozen overseas, and was able to resume selling oil on international markets and using the global financial system for trade.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Why US withdrew\nfrom the deal?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Broadly, there are three\ncontentious issues:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>The Iranian nuclear issue: <\/strong>While Iran has\nalways maintained that its nuclear programme is for civilian and peaceful\npurposes, the US and its allies in the region (Israel and Saudi Arabia) refuse\nto believe that Iran\u2019s programme is only meant for producing electricity or for\nmedical purposes.<strong><\/strong><\/li><li>The US has raised serious concerns on <strong>Iran\u2019s missile programme.<\/strong> Iran has a robust military establishment\nthat has developed medium- and long- range ballistic missile capabilities. Even\nafter signing the JCPOA, Iran continued to develop and test ballistic missiles.<strong><\/strong><\/li><li>Iran\u2019s <strong>regional\nmilitary expansionism<\/strong> and support for non-state actors including Hezbollah,\nHamas, Ansar Allah, Iraq\u2019s Popular Mobilization Unit (PMU) and Shia militias in\nSyria. The US and its regional allies see this as threatening their national\nsecurity and regional interests.&nbsp;<strong><\/strong><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Unilateral\nUS Sanctions on Iran:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>After withdrawing from the\nJCPOA, the Trump administration reimposed economic sanctions on Iran including\non its export of crude oil which came into full effect on November 05, 2018.\nHowever, a waiver was offered to eight countries on importing Iranian oil for\n180 days, which came to an end on May 02, 2019.<\/li><li><strong>April\n22: <\/strong>President\nDonald Trump decided to not \u2018reissue Significant Reductions Exceptions (SREs)\u2019\non Iranian oil exports to eight countries, namely China, India, Japan, South\nKorea, Turkey, Greece, Italy and Taiwan, when they expire on May 02 in order to\nreduce Iranian oil exports to zero and \u201cdeny the regime its principal source of\nrevenue.\u201d<\/li><li>In order to apply \u201cmaximum pressure\u201d on Iran,\nand curb its nuclear, missile and regional military activities, and compel it\nto seek renewed negotiations with the Trump administration, US further tighten the noose on\nIran\u2019s sources of revenue. Trump signed an executive order on May 08 to \u201cimpose\nsanctions with respect to Iran\u2019s iron, steel, aluminum, and copper sectors,\u201d\nconsidered to be its \u201clargest non-petroleum-related sources of export revenue\u201d.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Recent Tensions\n(2019):<\/strong>\n<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>May\n08:<\/strong>\nThe first anniversary of the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of\nAction (JCPOA) &#8211; Iranian President Hassan Rouhani announced that the Supreme\nNational Security Council (SNSC) (headed by him only), has decided to suspend\nsome of its commitments under the JCPOA toward \u201csafeguarding the Iranian\nnation\u2019s security and interests.\u201d<\/li><li><strong>May\n10:<\/strong>\nThe US Department of Defense announced that it has \u201capproved the movement of\nthe USS Arlington (LPD-24) and a Patriot battery\u201d to Central Command (CENTCOM)\nfor deployment in the Persian Gulf.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>June 20:<\/strong>\u00a0Iranian forces shoot down a US military drone over the Strait of Hormuz. The US says it was over international waters, Iran says it is over their territory.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image\"><img data-recalc-dims=\"1\" loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"236\" height=\"204\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blogadmin.forumias.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/sss.jpg?resize=236%2C204&#038;ssl=1\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-49754\"\/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>July 1:<\/strong>\u00a0Iran announces that it breached the 300 kilogram limit on uranium gas enriched to 3.67 percent (202 kilograms of uranium by weight). The IAEA confirms that Iran has exceeded the limit.\u00a0<\/li><li><strong>July 7:<\/strong>\u00a0Iran\u00a0announced that it would begin enriching uranium above a concentration of 3.67% permitted under the nuclear deal.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>India-Iran\nRelations:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>India has strong bilateral relations\nwith Iran. In addition to cultural and historical links, the two countries look\nat each other as important<strong> regional\nactors<\/strong> who have contributed positively to stability in their respective\nregions.&nbsp;New Delhi and Tehran have maintained robust political engagements\nsince the 1990s.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>At the moment, the core of the relationship lies in strong <strong>bilateral trade<\/strong>, crude oil imports from Iran and cooperation in the development and operationalisation of the Chabahar Port. Iran is one of India\u2019s major trading partners and accounts for nearly two per cent of its foreign trade.<ul><li><strong>Energy<\/strong> is the most important component of bilateral trade and Iran contributes significantly to India\u2019s energy security. Iran has been one of the top three suppliers of crude oil to India for over a decade, except during the period 2011-15 when it was under international sanctions. Moreover, India also buys natural gas from Iran and hence the total value of energy imports from Iran is even higher, accounting for 80-85 per cent of its overall imports from Iran.<\/li><li><strong>Chabahar Port:<\/strong> India deems the port as a gateway for its trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Impact of Sanctions on India:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Oil import: <\/strong>As noted\nearlier, the US has refused to renew the SREs issued for eight countries including\nIndia. This means that Indian companies will either have to stop buying oil\nfrom Iran or resort to a Rupee payment mechanism as was done in the past. However,\nduring the pre-JCPOA sanctions period, the Obama administration had given\nexemptions to India on importing oil from Iran. Whereas now under the Trump\nadministration, the likelihood is bleak for forging any informal arrangement to\nallow continued import of Iranian oil.<\/li><li><strong>Companies doing business in Iran: <\/strong>Other than the oil sector, India is not\ndirectly affected by US sanctions on Iran though Indian companies involved in\nthe Iranian automobile, iron &amp; steel and mining sectors will be affected\ndue to additional US sanctions on these sectors.<\/li><li><strong>The Chabahar Port<\/strong> also does not come under US sanctions\nand hence Indian investments and involvement in it will not be affected.\nHowever, due to sanctions on the iron &amp; steel sector and individuals and\ncompanies, part of India\u2019s plan to develop Chabahar as a gateway to Central\nAsia, could be affected.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Road ahead of India: <\/strong>In the present situation, India has two options:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>To resort to buying Iranian oil through one or more informal arrangements including:<ul><li>Devising a Rupee payment mechanism to overcome the sanctions<\/li><li>Joining hands with the EU, Russia and China through the INSTEX mechanism<\/li><li>Teaming up with a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) initiative to defy US sanctions.<\/li><\/ul><\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>However, if India were to undertake such a move, its\nmultifaceted relations with the US will be hampered.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>To continue negotiating with the US to either secure a formal waiver or to have an informal understanding to buy Iranian oil. <\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In\nthe meanwhile, India can offer to Iran to enhance its investments in the\nChabahar Port development project as well as consider initiating other\ndevelopmental and connectivity projects to strengthen linkages to Afghanistan and\nCentral Asia. This will help India not openly defy the US or subvert its policy\ntowards Iran but also &nbsp;at the same time ensure that its relationship with\nIran is not completely derailed and it is also able to pursue an independent\nforeign policy. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/op-ed\/game-of-chicken-that-can-end-in-disaster\/article28415525.ece\">https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/op-ed\/game-of-chicken-that-can-end-in-disaster\/article28415525.ece<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Read\u00a0In-depth analysis of all the Editorials here Context: U.S and Iran crisis and its impact on India. US &#8211; Iran Problem: 1979: The US and Iran are at loggerheads since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which witnessed the overthrow of the Shah, an American ally in the Middle East, and brought Iran under a clerical regime&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/7-pm-game-of-chicken-that-can-end-in-disaster-on-u-s-iran-crisis-13th-july-2019\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">7 PM | Game of chicken that can end in disaster- On U.S -Iran crisis | 13th July, 2019<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":49370,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[130,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-49751","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-7-pm","category-public","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/7-PM.png?fit=1000%2C500&ssl=1","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704765629},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49751","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=49751"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/49751\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=49751"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=49751"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=49751"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}