{"id":56647,"date":"2020-03-05T19:00:00","date_gmt":"2020-03-05T13:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogadmin.forumias.com\/?p=56647"},"modified":"2020-03-05T16:23:27","modified_gmt":"2020-03-05T10:53:27","slug":"7-pm-the-sum-and-substance-of-the-afghan-deal-5th-march-2020","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/7-pm-the-sum-and-substance-of-the-afghan-deal-5th-march-2020\/","title":{"rendered":"7 PM | The sum and substance of the Afghan deal| 5th March 2020"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>Context:\n<\/strong>USA-Taliban\nPact (Doha Agreement).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>More\nin news:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>In a\nbid to end 18 years of conflict in Afghanistan, the Taliban and the United\nStates signed a peace agreement on 29th February.<\/li><li>India\nattended the signing&nbsp;ceremony in Doha, and was represented by Ambassador\nto Qatar P Kumaran.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>USA-Taliban\nPact:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The\nPact titled, \u201cAgreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic\nEmirate of Afghanistan which is not recognised by the United States as a state\nand is known as the Taliban and the United States of America\u201d.<\/li><li>The\npact was signed between Zalmay Khalilzad, US Special Representative for\nAfghanistan Reconciliation, and Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, political head of\nthe Taliban.<\/li><li>The\ndeal was signed in the Qatar\u2019s capital Doha on February 29, 2020, which is the\nTaliban\u2019s political headquarters and has hosted talks over the past year and a\nhalf.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Timeline\nof the major events:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>USA\nwent into Afghanistan in October 2001, a few weeks after the 9\/11 terror attacks,\nwith the goals of defeating terrorists (particularly Al-Qaeda) and rebuilding\nand stabilising the country.&nbsp;<\/li><li>December\n2001: Karzai is sworn in as chairman of a 29-member governing council\nestablished under the Bonn Agreement.<\/li><li>2004\nand 2009: General elections are held and Karzai is elected president for two\nconsecutive terms, the limit under the Afghan constitution.<\/li><li>April 2014:\n&nbsp;Deeply flawed election results in the\ntwo front-runners, Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, both claiming victory.\nU.S. Secretary of State John Kerry negotiates a power-sharing deal for a\nso-called Unity Government, with Ghani serving as president and Abdullah as\nchief executive.<\/li><li>December\n2014: American and NATO troops formally end their combat mission, transitioning\nto a support and training role though President&nbsp;Barack Obama&nbsp;had\nauthorized U.S. forces to carry out operations against Taliban and al-Qaida\ntargets.<\/li><li>2015-2018:\nThe Taliban surge further, staging near-daily attacks targeting Afghan and U.S.\nforces; scores of civilians die in the crossfire. An Islamic State group\naffiliate emerges in the east; the Taliban seize control of nearly half the\ncountry.<\/li><li>September\n2018: Seeking to fulfill his election promise to bring U.S. troops home,\nPresident Donald Trump appoints veteran Afghan-American diplomat Zalmay\nKhalilzad as negotiator with the Taliban.<\/li><li>September\n2019: Presidential elections are held but official results are not known for\nmonths.<\/li><li>November\n2019: Trump visits U.S. troops in Afghanistan on Thanksgiving, says the Taliban\nwant to make a deal and signals the Qatar negotiations are back on.<\/li><li>February\n15, 2020: Washington says a temporary \u201creduction in violence\u201d has been agreed\nupon with the Taliban as first step toward a final peace deal.<\/li><li>February\n18, 2020: Afghanistan\u2019s election commission declares Ghani the official winner\nof September elections; his rival Abdullah refuses to recognize the results and\ninstead declares himself the winner.<\/li><li>February\n29, 2020: The U.S. and the Taliban sign a deal in Doha, Qatar, laying out the\nwithdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan; the deal also envisions\nintra-Afghan talks on a future political road map.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key\nElements of the Deal:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>Troops withdrawl: <\/strong>U.S.\ntroops to be reduced from the current 14,000 to 8,600 by June 15 (in 135 days);\nand withdrawal of all remaining U.S. and foreign forces by April 29, 2021 (in\n14 months).<\/li><li><strong>Taliban Commitment:<\/strong>&nbsp;Taliban\nwill not allow any of its members, other individuals or groups, including\nal-Qaeda, to use the soil of Afghanistan to threaten the security of the United\nStates and&nbsp;its allies (does not include India).<\/li><li><strong>Sanctions removal:&nbsp;<\/strong>Removal\nof the Taliban from UN Security Council sanctions list by May 29 and US\nsanctions by August 27. The sanctions will be out before much progress is expected\nin the intra-Afghan dialogue to begin on March 10.<\/li><li>The\nfacilitation of an<strong>&nbsp;intra-Afghan\ndialogue. <\/strong>The participants of intra-Afghan negotiations will discuss the\ndate and modalities of a permanent and comprehensive ceasefire, including\nagreement over the future political roadmap of Afghanistan.<\/li><li><strong>Prisoner Release:&nbsp;<\/strong>Up to\n5,000 imprisoned Taliban and up to 1,000 prisoners from \u201cthe other side\u201d held\nby Taliban \u201cwill be released\u201d by March 10, which is when intra-Afghan\nnegotiations are supposed to start, in Oslo.<\/li><li><strong>Ceasefire: <\/strong>The agreement\nstates ceasefire will be simply \u201can item on the agenda\u201d when intra-Afghan talks\nstart, and indicates actual ceasefire will come with the \u201ccompletion\u201d of an\nAfghan political agreement.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Challenges\nAhead:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>The\nAfghan government has been completely sidelined during the talks between the US\nand Taliban.&nbsp;By giving in to this demand of Taliban, the U.S. has\npractically called into question the legitimacy of the government it backs.<\/li><li>US-Taliban\nagreement and the joint declaration differ, and it is not clear whether the\nAshraf Ghani-led government is on board with this \u201cpretty big up-front\nconcession to Taliban\u201d.<\/li><li>The\nidea of a ceasefire, which is normally the starting point for any peace\nprocess, has been made an outcome of the intra-Afghan dialogue, together with a\npolitical road map for the future, but without any time frame.&nbsp;<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>India\u2019s\nStand:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li>India\nand the Taliban have had a bitter past- IC-814 hijack in 1999.<\/li><li>India\nnever gave diplomatic and official recognition to the Taliban when it was in\npower during 1996-2001<\/li><li>India\nhas been backing the Ghani-led government and was among very few countries to\ncongratulate Ghani on his 2019 contested victory.<\/li><li>Indian\nforeign policy establishment has shied away from engaging with the Taliban directly,\nas it is viewed as a proxy of Pakistan. India has supported for enduring and\ninclusive peace and reconciliation which is \u201cAfghan-led, Afghan-owned and\nAfghan-controlled\u201d.<\/li><li>India\nhas consistently supported for an \u201cindependent, sovereign, democratic,\npluralistic and inclusive\u201d Afghanistan in which interests of all sections of\nsociety are preserved.&nbsp;<\/li><li>The\ndeal has reiterated India\u2019s commitment to Afghanistan\u2019s pursuit\nof&nbsp;\u201csustainable peace and reconciliation\u201d. Thus, India has&nbsp;accepted&nbsp;the\nDoha Agreement(2020).<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Implications\nof the deal on India:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>War against Terrorism: <\/strong>The\ndeal legitimises Taliban and its actions. This weakens India\u2019s fight against\nall sorts of terrorism and violence adopted by such extremist groups.<\/li><li><strong>Security Concerns: <\/strong>The\ndeal also promises to take Taliban leaders off the&nbsp;UN Security\nCouncil\u2019s&nbsp;sanctions list, which could considerably bring down the number\nof terrorists harboured by Pakistan. This might&nbsp;benefit Pakistan during\nthe June 2020&nbsp;FATF&nbsp;Plenary.<\/li><li><strong>Sidelining of Intra-Afghan Dialogue: <\/strong>The\nU.S. has committed to clear five bases and withdrawal of troops and it intends\nto submit to the Taliban-led government. Thus, priority to future Taliban led\ngovernment may&nbsp;sideline the \u201cIntra-Afghan\u201d dialogue and India\u2019s support\nfor the election process for leadership in Afghanistan. However, India has a\nmajor stake in the continuation of the current&nbsp;Afghanistan\ngovernment&nbsp;in power, which it considers a&nbsp;strategic asset vis-\u00e0-vis\nPakistan.<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Conclusion:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The pact seems to\nbe most likely proved similar to the Paris Peace Accords over Vietnam signed in\n1973. That agreement just facilitated US withdrawal but did not stop the Viet\nCong and North Vietnam from marching into Saigon two years later. As Mr. Trump\nmaintains that it is \u201ctime that the war on terror is fought by someone else\u201d,\nso it will not be the U.S.. The U.S. has described itself as a \u201cfacilitator\u201d, a\nresponsibility that it will be glad to share with others. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><br>\n<strong>Source: <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/lead\/the-sum-and-substance-of-the-afghan-deal\/article30984781.ece\">https:\/\/www.thehindu.com\/opinion\/lead\/the-sum-and-substance-of-the-afghan-deal\/article30984781.ece<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Context: USA-Taliban Pact (Doha Agreement). More in news: In a bid to end 18 years of conflict in Afghanistan, the Taliban and the United States signed a peace agreement on 29th February. India attended the signing&nbsp;ceremony in Doha, and was represented by Ambassador to Qatar P Kumaran. USA-Taliban Pact: The Pact titled, \u201cAgreement for Bringing&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/7-pm-the-sum-and-substance-of-the-afghan-deal-5th-march-2020\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">7 PM | The sum and substance of the Afghan deal| 5th March 2020<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":49370,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[130,9],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-56647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-7-pm","category-public","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/07\/7-PM.png?fit=1000%2C500&ssl=1","views":{"total":223,"cached_at":""},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=56647"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/56647\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/49370"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=56647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=56647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=56647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}