{"id":69461,"date":"2020-11-12T15:47:09","date_gmt":"2020-11-12T10:17:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=69461"},"modified":"2021-05-17T12:35:36","modified_gmt":"2021-05-17T07:05:36","slug":"credibility-of-exit-opinion-polls","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/credibility-of-exit-opinion-polls\/","title":{"rendered":"Credibility of exit\/opinion polls"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong>Context:\u00a0<\/strong>Prediction of Election outcome through Exit polls and opinion polls have not been accurate.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Some examples where election prediction has miserably failed?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>The example of the Venezuelan recall referendum of 2004<\/strong>: The exit poll that predicted Hugo Ch\u00e1vez to be recalled however, Hugo Ch\u00e1vez won in the Venezuela Referendum<\/li>\n<li><strong>In recent Bihar elections<\/strong>: The exit polls, mostly predicted a Rashtriya Janata Dal victory with huge margin however the NDA proved exit polls are wrong.<\/li>\n<li><strong>US presidential elections 2016<\/strong>: Hillary Clinton consistently led Trump in national polls in 2016 however Trump won the election.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p><strong>What are the reasons for such failures?<\/strong><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>Principles of statistics ignored<\/strong>: Pollsters do not follow the statistical principles properly in designing, sampling, and analyzing their data.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Lacks holistic coverage<\/strong>: They do not cover remote corners of the country and cover sensitive booths for their surveys.<\/li>\n<li><strong>No scope for Margin of error:<\/strong>\u00a0The standard requirements of 3 percentage points as margin of error is not adhered.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Selection bias<\/strong>: The samples selected by them does not maintain the proportions across gender, age, income, religion, caste, and other important factors.<\/li>\n<li><strong>Issues in method of sampling<\/strong>: Non responses are not properly tackled and the aspect of \u2018random\u2019 sampling is not given adequate importance.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<blockquote class=\"wp-embedded-content\" data-secret=\"NMWAc3i6lV\"><p><a href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/evaluation-of-budget-2021\/\">Evaluation of Budget 2021<\/a><\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-embedded-content\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts\" security=\"restricted\" style=\"position: absolute; clip: rect(1px, 1px, 1px, 1px);\" title=\"&#8220;Evaluation of Budget 2021&#8221; &#8212; Free UPSC IAS Preparation For Aspirants\" src=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/evaluation-of-budget-2021\/embed\/#?secret=JHItJlTT4S#?secret=NMWAc3i6lV\" data-secret=\"NMWAc3i6lV\" width=\"600\" height=\"338\" frameborder=\"0\" marginwidth=\"0\" marginheight=\"0\" scrolling=\"no\"><\/iframe><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Context:\u00a0Prediction of Election outcome through Exit polls and opinion polls have not been accurate. Some examples where election prediction has miserably failed? The example of the Venezuelan recall referendum of 2004: The exit poll that predicted Hugo Ch\u00e1vez to be recalled however, Hugo Ch\u00e1vez won in the Venezuela Referendum In recent Bihar elections: The exit&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/credibility-of-exit-opinion-polls\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Credibility of exit\/opinion polls<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230,1351,1310,9],"tags":[1331],"class_list":["post-69461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","category-daily-news","category-daily-news-updates","category-public","tag-po_7","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1701375088},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69461","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=69461"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/69461\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=69461"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=69461"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=69461"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}