{"id":71066,"date":"2020-09-06T10:57:23","date_gmt":"2020-09-06T05:27:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=71066"},"modified":"2020-11-27T11:00:40","modified_gmt":"2020-11-27T05:30:40","slug":"covid-19-and-indias-road-to-economic-revival","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/covid-19-and-indias-road-to-economic-revival\/","title":{"rendered":"COVID \u2013 19 and India\u2019s road to economic revival"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><strong><b>Source \u2013\u00a0<\/b><\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/indianexpress.com\/article\/opinion\/columns\/indian-first-quarter-gdp-growth-decline-coronavirus-impact-madan-sabnavis-6582138\/\"><strong><u><b>The Indian Express<\/b><\/u><\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n<blockquote><p><strong><b>Syllabus \u2013 GS 3 \u2013\u00a0<\/b><\/strong>Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong><b>Context \u2013<\/b><\/strong>\u00a0\u2018Unlocking\u2019 and \u2018Revival package from the government\u2019 are the two basic factors that will determine the course of India\u2019s economy for the rest of the year.<\/p>\n<p><strong><b>Impact of COVID-19 on GDP<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><b>GDP contraction<\/b><\/strong>\u2013 India\u2019s economy shrank nearly 25 percent in last quarter, the most drastic fall in decades. The following sectors reflects how deep the problem is-<\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Public administration<\/b><\/strong>\u2013 Higher government spending was in the form of transfer payments rather than spending on goods and services, which resulted in a negative growth number.<\/li>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Manufacturing and Services<\/b><\/strong>\u2013 The sector has been in the negative zone across the board due to the national lockdown since end of March.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong><b>Factors that influence the growth prospects for the coming quarters<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><strong><b>\u00a01<\/b><\/strong><strong><sup><b>st<\/b><\/sup><\/strong><strong><b>\u00a0Factor \u2013 Unlocking economy activity-<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Unlocking frictions<\/b><\/strong>in nine core sectors and the MSME segment, which make up 75 per cent of the pre-pandemic GDP, can significantly uplift the economy.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong><b>The following sectors are-<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-65088\" src=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.forumias.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Picture1-2.png?resize=578%2C354&amp;ssl=1\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 578px) 85vw, 578px\" srcset=\"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.forumias.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Picture1-2.png?w=578&amp;ssl=1 578w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.forumias.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Picture1-2.png?resize=300%2C184&amp;ssl=1 300w, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/blog.forumias.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/09\/Picture1-2.png?resize=150%2C92&amp;ssl=1 150w\" alt=\"\" width=\"578\" height=\"354\" data-recalc-dims=\"1\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong><b>Challenges<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Industries in which it is harder<\/b><\/strong>\u2014<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<ul>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Travel or Entertainment<\/b><\/strong>\u2014 It will still be in a gradual normalization process, and probably won\u2019t rebound completely until a vaccine is available.<\/li>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Real estate<\/b><\/strong>\u2013 The present stress on home loans can hinder a revival in the residential real estate.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<ol start=\"2\">\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Unchanged scenarios<\/b><\/strong>\u2013 Based on the first quarter performance, 25 per cent of the economy, which would be in the services category, would probably still be struggling in the fourth quarter.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong><b>2<\/b><\/strong><strong><sup><b>nd<\/b><\/sup><\/strong><strong><b>\u00a0Factor \u2013 Revival package from the government<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<ol>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Additional capital expenditure-\u00a0<\/b><\/strong>By increasing capital expenditure [capex], the government can begin a virtuous cycle of creating assets as well as providing employment. This will create a dual impact on the economy.<\/li>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Transfer of Cash benefits<\/b><\/strong>\u2013 Money in the hands of people can provide an immediate sense of security and confidence, which is the cornerstone to restoring economic normalcy. This will raise the consumption and demand of the economy and can bring back the virtuous cycle in play.<\/li>\n<li><b><\/b><strong><b>Banking system-<\/b><\/strong>COVID-19 assistance measures undertaken by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the government such as interest rate reductions, credit guarantee and liquidity enhancement schemes are welcome steps.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<p><strong><b>Way forward<\/b><\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Government can certainly make a difference by altering its stance on fiscal policy, going in for some pump-priming. It is important to address and resolve ground level issues sector-wise and industry-wise in order to formulate the new policies.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Source \u2013\u00a0The Indian Express Syllabus \u2013 GS 3 \u2013\u00a0Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment. Context \u2013\u00a0\u2018Unlocking\u2019 and \u2018Revival package from the government\u2019 are the two basic factors that will determine the course of India\u2019s economy for the rest of the year. Impact of COVID-19 on GDP GDP&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/covid-19-and-indias-road-to-economic-revival\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">COVID \u2013 19 and India\u2019s road to economic revival<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10311,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1230],"tags":[1284],"class_list":["post-71066","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-9-pm-daily-articles","tag-eco_2","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":{"total":0,"cached_at":"","cached_date":1704843519},"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71066","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/10311"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=71066"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/71066\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=71066"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=71066"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=71066"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}