{"id":96849,"date":"2021-03-20T19:55:31","date_gmt":"2021-03-20T14:25:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.forumias.com\/?p=96849"},"modified":"2021-03-20T22:49:30","modified_gmt":"2021-03-20T17:19:30","slug":"effectiveness-of-inflation-targeting-in-india-explained-pointwise","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/effectiveness-of-inflation-targeting-in-india-explained-pointwise\/","title":{"rendered":"Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting in India &#8211; Explained, Pointwise"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><b>Introduction:<\/b><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">RBI adopted the Inflation Targeting on the recommendations of the Urjit Patel committee in 2016. Almost 5 years have passed since its adoption. The RBI has also announced a formal review of its inflation targeting method. Hence, there is a requirement for an elaborate review to examine the performance of this method. In this article, we will analyze the performance of Inflation Targeting in India so far.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<h5><b>What is Inflation Targeting (IT)?<\/b><\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/relevance-of-inflation-targeting-in-india\/\">Inflation Targeting<\/a> is a method that focuses on adjusting monetary policy to achieve a specified annual rate of inflation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Types of inflation targeting<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">:<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Strict inflation targeting(SIT)<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; Under this, the central bank only focuses on keeping inflation, close to a given inflation target.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Flexible inflation targeting(FIT) <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8211; Under this, apart from inflation, the central bank is also concerned about other variables like the stability of interest rates, exchange rates, output and employment ratios.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<div class=\"content-box-green\">\n<h5><b>Basic Terminologies<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/economy-news\/monetary-policy-news\/\"><b>Monetary Policy<\/b><\/a><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; It is the macroeconomic policy laid down by the central bank that focuses on the management of money supply and interest rates.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Inflation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; It refers to a sustained\/continuous rise in the general price level of goods and services in an economy over a period of time.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Headline inflation <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">&#8211; It is a measure of total inflation in an economy. In India, Consumer Price Index Combined (CPI -C) represents Headline Inflation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Core inflation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; It is the inflation level after subtracting the food and fuel inflation from the Headline Inflation.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Repo Rate<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; It is the rate at which RBI provides short-term loans to banks against the collateral of government and other approved securities under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF).<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Shut Period<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> &#8211; It is the period for which the securities cannot be traded<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n<h5><b>Background of Inflation Targeting<\/b><\/h5>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Finance Act, 2016 amended the Reserve Bank of India Act, 1934 (RBI Act) . The amendment facilitated a statutory and institutionalized framework for a <a href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/effectiveness-of-monetary-policy-in-india-nov-11th-2020\/\"><strong>Monetary Policy Committee(MPC)<\/strong><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">MPC was entrusted with the task of fixing the benchmark policy interest rate (repo rate) to<\/span><b> contain inflation <\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">within the specified target level i.e. inflation targeting.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A flexible inflation target (FIT) of 4% was decided with a deviation of +or-\u00a0 2%. Further, <\/span><b>headline consumer price inflation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> was chosen as the<\/span><b> key indicator.<\/b><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">This agreement between the center and the RBI on inflation targeting is set to end on 31st March 2021.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h5><b>Need of inflation targeting<\/b><\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Inflation targeting advocates the <\/span><b>objective of price stability<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in actual monetary policy arrangement.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Adopting price stability creates a<\/span><b> stable non-inflationary environment for resource allocation <\/b>in the economy<span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Since the RBI <strong>sets a certain inflation rate as a goal<\/strong>. The central bank made people believe that prices will continue to rise. This has few advantages like,\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul style=\"list-style-type: circle;\">\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The inflation targeting <\/span><b>benefits the economy<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> by making people buy things in the present (before they cost more).<\/span><\/li>\n<li>It <strong>boosts investment<\/strong>. As investors invest now because they are confident that the investment will give them a higher return when they sell later.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">A credible central bank and stable inflation lower the country&#8217;s risk premium and cost of borrowing in an open economy.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">It also made the<\/span><b> RBI more accountable<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> to the government. As the RBI needs to give a proper explanation in case it breaches the inflation targeting tolerance range (2-6%).<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5><b>Performance of Inflation Targeting so far<\/b><\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In these 5 years periods (2016-2021) after inflation targeting was introduced, RBI managed to keep inflation in control.\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>The inflation rate has remained within the prescribed band<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> of 2% to 6%. According to the RBI, Inflation was above 9% before the introduction of Inflation Targeting in India.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Also, the RBI has been successful in anchoring inflationary expectations. As the <\/span><b>estimated response coefficient<\/b> <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">to RBI is higher for India than it is for other countries.<br \/>\n<\/span><b>The estimated response coefficient<\/b> is the relationship between the Bank response and the unexpected rise in Inflation.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, sometimes the band was breached as well. In June 2020, the upper threshold of 6% was breached due to COVID-19 lockdown.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5><b>Issues in inflation targeting<\/b><\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Assumption of correct output level:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The model of Inflation targeting is based on the assumption that inflation means overheating the economy (i.e. output or production is greater than natural level output\/production.)<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">However, it is impossible to observe the level of output in an economy. Hence, setting policy rates based on the assumption that the economy is overheated, is unscientific.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Limited power of RBI:<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> The belief that RBI can successfully control inflation using Inflation targeting is not completely true. During the lockdown<strong>, food inflation peaked even when the inflationary targeting mechanism was in force.<\/strong> It was mainly <strong>due to supply chain disruption<\/strong> during the lockdown.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Adverse impact on other sectors<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: The cases of IL&amp;FS, PMC Bank, PNB and YES Bank suggest that<\/span><b> poor management and maladministration<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> in the financial sector can escape RBI scrutiny as they tend to focus more on inflation targeting.<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">RBI has <strong>kept the interest rates high<\/strong> to manage inflation. This has<\/span><b> discouraged private investment<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> thereby reducing employment and export potential.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>High real repo rates<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> for almost three years 2017-2019 are the primary cause of <\/span><b>the GDP growth decline in India.<\/b> The GDP declined <span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">from 8 percent (pre-IT) to 5 percent (post IT) due to high real repo rates.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Global Nature of inflation<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">: Inflation is global in nature as the price level of a good is determined by millions of producers across the world. Research by economic experts has also pointed out the international influence on the inflation level. Further, they mention points like,\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">No one producer or one country can influence the price of any item or the general price level.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For instance, The average inflation rate among EM (emerging markets) targeters during 2000-04 were 4 percent, and it was 3.8 percent among the non-targeters.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5><b>Suggestions to improve the inflation targeting<\/b><\/h5>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in its Currency and Finance (RCF) report has called for <\/span><b>aligning the shut period<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> with global practices. The RBI predicts that this will provide better monetary policy transmission.\u00a0<\/span>\n<ol>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><strong>Shut down period<\/strong> is the period, in which MPC members maintain complete silence, i.e. no media coverage. It is observed before a few days of a policy decision, till few days after the decision. It ensures no sudden volatility in the market and effective market transmission.<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">At present the shut period is seven-day after the release of the monetary policy committee (MPC) resolution. The RBI wants to reduce this to 3 days after the resolution.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">In order to enhance<\/span><b> accountability and credibility<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">, the transcripts of the MPC meetings may be recorded. Further, the transcripts may be <\/span><b>released in the public domain with a lag of 5-7 years<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The government has to change the Inflation targeting<\/span><b> from headline to core inflation.<\/b> This will provide advantages like,\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">More than 50% basket of headline inflation comprises commodities that the RBI policy rate cannot affect. Especially fuel inflation.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Food inflation is now in single digits than earlier double digits.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Improvement of Regular measurement of CPI. This includes<\/span><b> a frequent update of the basket and its weights<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> along with changing times.<\/span><\/li>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><b>Expansion in the ambit of MPC<\/b><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\"> is also needed.\u00a0<\/span>\n<ul>\n<li style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">For instance, the inclusion of liquidity issues (liquidity adjustment facility, changes in reverse repo, and OMOs) in the discussion may result in greater transparency and effective procedures.<\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<h5><b>Conclusion<\/b><\/h5>\n<p><span style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The RBI\u2019s Currency and Finance report has indicated the central bank\u2019s preference to maintain flexible Inflation Targeting in the range of 2-6% for the next five years. This will build confidence in the broader economy that is still prone to both supply shocks and sudden demand shrinkage. Nonetheless, some reforms are desired in the Inflation targeting procedure to achieve optimum outcomes.<\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Introduction: RBI adopted the Inflation Targeting on the recommendations of the Urjit Patel committee in 2016. Almost 5 years have passed since its adoption. The RBI has also announced a formal review of its inflation targeting method. Hence, there is a requirement for an elaborate review to examine the performance of this method. In this&hellip; <a class=\"more-link\" href=\"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/effectiveness-of-inflation-targeting-in-india-explained-pointwise\/\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Effectiveness of Inflation Targeting in India &#8211; Explained, Pointwise<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":61,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[130,9],"tags":[1278],"class_list":["post-96849","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-7-pm","category-public","tag-eco_4","entry"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","views":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96849","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/61"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=96849"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/96849\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=96849"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=96849"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=96849"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}