The world’s population is over 7 billion. We , the people of India are a staggering 1.2 billion. Humanity has continued to exist because people have done produced another generation to replace itself. Scientists have figured out how many people ought to be born to keep population stable. This brings the concept of total fertility rate et alia. The 2013 data for the Sample Registration Survey (SRS), conducted by the Registrar General of India had the country’s official source of birth and death data. It has been released.
Total Fertility Rate is average number of children expected to be born per woman during her entire span of reproductive period. Assuming there are no migration flows and that mortality rates remain unchanged, a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman generates broad stability of the population. Associated with total fertility rate is the concept of replacement rate. The replacement rate is the number of children each woman needs to have to maintain current population levels.
Let me explain it in simpler words. Hypothetically , when you will be 90, the world will reach a milestone. Humanity will produce only enough children to replace itself. This is the replacement level of fertility. Two parents are replaced by their two children. Father , mother and their two kids – Happy family.
You must be wondering where did the 2.1 come from?Shouldn’t replacement rate fertility be 2.0? According to the CIA World Factbook, there are 107 boys born for every 100 girls. Therefore, 100 women need to bear 207 children, on average, in order to produce the 100 girls needed to replace them. Dividing 207 children by 100 women equals 2.07 children per woman, which by convention rounds up to 2.1.
So what is the situation in India?
- TFR for India is at 2.3. It has reduced. India is now just 0.2 points away from reaching replacement levels i.e. 2.1.
- West Bengal has India’s lowest TFR – 1.6.
- It is expected that India will achieve its demographic transition and reach replacement levels as early as 2020 or 2022.
What happens when we achieve this replacement level?
It will lead to economic benefits through a “demographic dividend.” During and after a decline in fertility, a country simultaneously has fewer children to care for and a greater share of its population in the most economically productive age bracket. Less people running after resources, reduced pressure on land and better standards of living will be ensured. Fewer dependents in the form of children will lead to more savings which will boost investment. Chinese household savings (obviously influenced by many things, not just demography) reached almost 25% of GDP in 2008, helping to finance investment of an unprecedented 40% of GDP. This in turn accounted for practically all the increase in Chinese GDP then.
Now, developed and developing countries have different rates. United states has a TFR of 2.01. Japan has a TFR of 1.40. A fertility rate below 2.1 eventually brings about a smaller population, but when people have been breeding at a much higher rate, it takes a long time just to achieve stability. But see the case of Japan, it is on the verge of a demographic collapse. When a population decreases in size, the number of potential mothers also decreases. And , people will die after all, even though medical advances have extended lifespans.
Why is the replacement rate higher in developing nations? Many developing nations have very high rates of infant and child mortality. High infant and child mortality rates are the result of high fertility rates. Fertility doesn’t need to be higher to offset those losses, it needs to be lower to avoid those losses. Better access to health care for example will lower infant mortality. In India,
- IMR has fallen to 40 deaths per 1,000 live births.
- 49 deaths of children under the age of 5 for every 1,000 live births.
- Kerala has the best IMR at 12 deaths per 1,000 live births.
- A worrying trend is that , unnaturally higher mortality rates are there, both for infant girls and for girls under the age of five than for boys.
- IMR has fallen faster in rural areas than in urban areas.
- India at these rates is unlikely to meet its Millenium Development Goals for 2015. MDG target is IMR 27 by 2015.
To an extent, total fertility rates are closely tied to growth rates for countries and can be an excellent indicator of future population growth or decline for a country.
Neo Malthusians think the world has too many people. But countries are worried how take advantage by having just the right number of people for economic growth? Will the world have enough people to support an ageing society? At a time when Malthusian are worried because of environmental pressures, falling fertility may provide them reassurance about global population trends.
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