Context
The past is no longer a guide to the future. In the coming years, Indian foreign policy will need less red lines and greater agility and pragmatism as the country seeks to find its place in this Age of Uncertainty
Article tries to predict the trajectory of American policy as Donald Trump assumes Presidential office.
Implications to India
Author states that for the last quarter century, relations with the U.S. have followed a predictable trajectory, determined by three key factors
- The end of the Cold War and the disintegration of the former USSR
- Opening up of the Indian economy, a process that has continued uninterrupted despite changes of government though the pace of change has varied. This trajectory will continue in the same direction for India sees itself as a beneficiary of globalization
- Coming of age of the Indian diaspora in the U.S. Gradually, the first generation of Indian professionals who migrated in the 1960s and 1970s has moved towards forming political groupings and has made its presence felt in local and national politics. The second generation is also entering the policy-making arena by joining government and running for public office. With every election, the number of Indians in the administration and in the Congress continues to rise.
Natural Allies
These three factors encouraged Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee to describe India and the U.S. as “natural allies” when India was still subjected to U.S. sanctions after the nuclear tests of 1998.
Nuclear and defence sectors
Author points out that during the last decade, the major transformation has been in the nuclear and the defence sectors
- The sales of U.S. defence platforms to India during the past decade have exceeded $15 billion covering howitzers, helicopters, transport aircraft and maritime surveillance planes
Age of uncertainty
Areas of uncertainty
- Tightening of Visa norms: A retreat from globalization translates into U.S. protectionism and tightening of the H1B visa regime
Closer ties with Russia: Trump’s stated policy of forging closer ties with Russia would have implications for U.S. policy on Afghanistan, which is bound to raise concerns in Delhi, given Russia’s (and Iran’s) newfound acceptance of the Taliban
