I feel rare chances of prelims getting postponed. Even if lockdown extends till 25 May i.e 7weeks more (let's say), I feel prelims will be on time as
People associated with prelims conduct can easily work online. Talks about prelims management and conduct, scenarios and probabilities would start next week most probably.
Most don't get paid in private sector without working and also don't get ration through PDS. Many need to earn their life through working and so, life must resume soon after lockdown normally for them atleast and many would be required to support them (~few millions)
Let's accept the fact that this virus will not go out for 12-15 months atleast and people would have equal vulnerability to it till then. Checking everyone and sanitising all of India would be required to completely eliminate it, which can't happen because it is ~impossible. So, in my opinion, we would be supposed to be alert while doing routine work but yes, life would start again very soon.
The lockdown (even if extended) would have done it's thing , so not much point in extending more.
People need 3-4 days to settle down at max.
life would resume for most and, so, yes most probably prelims would be on time. My idea is to tell that don't relax and be prepared but at the same time don't panic. :)
I feel pending interviews would not be taken into account while thinking about this year's prelims. Though, not analogous, but some FCI exam and UPSC prelims were on same day last year.
why are people not considering the logistical problems?
*the paper needs to be set.
*paper needs to be printed.
*printed paper needs to reach all centres.
*centres which are government school need to be ready(some schools are being used as quarantine centres).
*people need to travel to centre citiesOther UPSC exam notifications and processes are postponed. Admit card usually comes by end of April. I guess we will know it then.
If a govt. can counter a disease with this force and mechanism, trust me, what you're questioning might not take much from them. Govt. imposed restrictions in a snap, it can remove them in a flash.
I feel everything else can be done while following certain norms to prevent the infection but when it comes to people travelling to centre cities there might be a very slight problem. But, I think it can be overcome by giving students enough time to move by making admit cards out a little earlier. Personal opinion, schools cannot be centres of quarantines till 31st May. schools don't have quarantine like facilities, so using them for capacity upgrade is not much viable. Other options, dharamshala, community halls, banquets etc. are better.
But, a little larger question they face would be , do we need to conduct the exam on 31stMay2020?
Economists would suggest, Yes. Politicians might suggest, No.
And, I see economists winning here, because such exams lead to expenditure and demand creation in the economy, remember how fiscal expenditure can help in recession and slowdown (Keynesian thought). These exams would be important to all lower economic classes which are bearing the burden of this lockdown.
Let's say, a candidate would spend atleast 10₹ to exam centre and 50₹ there , exam happens in two shifts. Taking last year figure, 8lakh people appeared for prelims, 60*8lakhs ~4.8 crore. And you know my nos. are not realistic, so yes, a significant amount would be spent by candidates all across India.
Politicians would say no , due to popular pressure due to sensitivity, social distancing dilemma. But, social distancing can be maintained at individual exam centres by allocating more no. of centres and health norms. All candidates wouldn't be taking exam at one centre, so it looks feasible, if you look from micro level.
Disjointed thought, many central ministries have opened today amid lockdown extension speculation, in that light, all future bureaucrats must be ready for the CSE atleast.
I don't get this "that's how UPSC works, that's how UPSC has been" shit!
Never in our lives we came across such a deadly pandemic.. there are many things which happened for the first time in the history of independent India just because of this corona virus! UPSC is just another institution!! It's not about postponing an exam it's about our lives, our parent's lives!
Why are we in this lockdown if it's not contagious?? Why can't we go even for stroll out of our houses! Some of us are living in extreme isolation.. many of us must have gone through mental breakdown at some point of time during this period! This is a very unusual situation we are dealing with!
How on this planet we can assume that this disease will disappear completely in may or june or july for that matters! How can we say that UPSC is a Godlike institution and it can do whatever it feels even in these circumstances!
Will we really be willing to take the risk of going out in different cities even for the sake of traveling after 3r of may?
It is an unprecedented time, and it does require unprecedented measures! Lockdown is just one of them!!
In my humble opinion, No exam should be conducted till the recovery of atleast 90-95% of the patients or zero cases for consecutive 15-21 days, whichever is earlier!
UPSC CSE recruits people who can optimize in all kind of social situations as they are equipped with necessary knowledge of almost all aspects affecting a common man's life. Though, they aren't specialised in any one field but knowing basics of everything really puts them in a better position than anyone who is specialised in a limited field. I don't mean that the UPSC CSE recruits are doing better than what Doctors, Scientists etc. are doing in their field, rather, I want to point out that Doctors, Scientists etc. have a limited field.
On today's date, UPSC recruited people are RBI governor, National Security Advisor, Minister of MEA etc. Though that's not what UPSC recruited them for and definitely they are not specialised for that and the reason for their recruitment can be political too but since they are equipped with basics strongly, they are running the organization well if not taking their organization to glory. Also, the recruited ones (DM, JS, DCP etc.) are doing their mandated task efficiently and innovatively. If any academician criticizes their organization then most of the times it's not their individual capability he/she is doubting rather the organization's capability which is guided by political motives of a political head.
Since, UPSC CSE is conducted by UPSC, I just want to say, don't take UPSC as an organisation for granted. It is different and unique and important too, not because many people aspire to get recruited through it and enjoy priviliges (SSC CGL exam is taken by more people, there are people who have left 2 crore annual package to join it (prem prakash)) but because the ones who get recruited by it are highly relevant for society in all runs. Personal feeling, society respects what is important to them and human race collectively automatically (naturally) and not by a way of choice.
If there was no UPSC, such a thing would have been done by thought of society (individual, community) and it would have been respected equally. UPSC is just an institutionalised version of that thought.
I respect Teachers, Doctors, Scientists etc. for their contribution to humanity and it definitely is larger. :)
Signed the petition. The guys have cleverly added a small promotion at the end of it!
Is there any example where a public body in India paid heed to change.org, formally or informally? I couldn't find any concrete case online.
Different note, sending a well drafted retirement message to chairman might work better, emotionally atleast. He retires on 7/August/20.
@hound I don't think so. But then we now have PM Modi. He is a little tech-savvy and cares for public perception and social media . So you never know.
Ok. Yes, perhaps.
why are people not considering the logistical problems?
*the paper needs to be set.
*paper needs to be printed.
*printed paper needs to reach all centres.
*centres which are government school need to be ready(some schools are being used as quarantine centres).
*people need to travel to centre citiesOther UPSC exam notifications and processes are postponed. Admit card usually comes by end of April. I guess we will know it then.
If a govt. can counter a disease with this force and mechanism, trust me, what you're questioning might not take much from them. Govt. imposed restrictions in a snap, it can remove them in a flash.
I feel everything else can be done while following certain norms to prevent the infection but when it comes to people travelling to centre cities there might be a very slight problem. But, I think it can be overcome by giving students enough time to move by making admit cards out a little earlier. Personal opinion, schools cannot be centres of quarantines till 31st May. schools don't have quarantine like facilities, so using them for capacity upgrade is not much viable. Other options, dharamshala, community halls, banquets etc. are better.
But, a little larger question they face would be , do we need to conduct the exam on 31stMay2020?
Economists would suggest, Yes. Politicians might suggest, No.
And, I see economists winning here, because such exams lead to expenditure and demand creation in the economy, remember how fiscal expenditure can help in recession and slowdown (Keynesian thought). These exams would be important to all lower economic classes which are bearing the burden of this lockdown.
Let's say, a candidate would spend atleast 10₹ to exam centre and 50₹ there , exam happens in two shifts. Taking last year figure, 8lakh people appeared for prelims, 60*8lakhs ~4.8 crore. And you know my nos. are not realistic, so yes, a significant amount would be spent by candidates all across India.
Politicians would say no , due to popular pressure due to sensitivity, social distancing dilemma. But, social distancing can be maintained at individual exam centres by allocating more no. of centres and health norms. All candidates wouldn't be taking exam at one centre, so it looks feasible, if you look from micro level.
Disjointed thought, many central ministries have opened today amid lockdown extension speculation, in that light, all future bureaucrats must be ready for the CSE atleast.
Politicians and Economists suggestions taken. Economists (~economics) leading. It would be interesting to see what are "vehicles of this financial assistance" in sixth para. that Chairman Finance Commission is also asking, would be.
I ,personally, wouldn't be surprised if all India exams (UPSC, NEET, JEE Mains etc.) are part of it as these can have better penetration into the economy and can hit right chords.
My reason
Urban areas don't have schemes like MNREGA, others. Also, these schemes are spatially specific in rural areas too. Since, India's MSME sector is ~111 million (~11crore) , it would be really tough for anyone to absorb them into such schemes too. So, the vehicle of financial assistance has to be really comprehensive and more penetrating. That's why I said, such exams are a definite policy instrument.
Adding on, urban poor people would be hurt more as rurals are self reliant to varying degrees.
Our BPL line is ~1400-1500₹ monthly (for urban, correct me if wrong) from C Rangrajan committee estimates. If 3 exams are conducted and if one guy earns 500₹ (which I think is practically feasible), his monthly income to sustain is provided (atleast according to govt., which according to me is fine provided they get PDS supplies).
Markets have been opened. Let's see, if demand gets created or not. I personally think, it can't be created by itself, though I hope that's not the case. News of social frustration this week among them would be a proxy indicator.
Adding on, creating new vehicles of assistance would come at a cost, which govt. might not want to incur (Budget constraints, time investment, not many long term uses etc.). One example where it got created : UP giving 1000₹ + Raashan to migrants when they come back home ,but, such opportunities are rare, you can't make them come and go again and again.
Anyway, Delhi Metro plan is ready too.
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/after-delhi-metro-opens-you-may-be-denied-ride-without-mask-aarogya-setu-pass/amp-11587649373682.html
Rephrasing original question to, what are chances of prelims being on time? There are and it would be strategic than a popular choice. UPSC can increase one attempt for everyone for compensation of this year (though that would not be perfect but these aren't normal times). If not, it wouldn't be too late. Saying it again, views are personal but I'm open to arguments and questions which are 'n' in numbers. I'm open to questions like "this is a public health emergence, you dumbo are thinking about economy" but please ask.
Lastly, I just want to point out, if this is worse than Great Depression (like many pointing out), I feel, the measures have to be really strict and strategic. And before any of that, we, the citizens, need to internalize it for our own benefit and society as a whole. If not taken, the situation can really hurt us. Let's not file 'n' emotional petitions with same demands, only one can do. The govt. knows the situation already. Please, let panic dissipate and reality sink in. These are tough times. Let's prepare. Peace.
why are people not considering the logistical problems?
*the paper needs to be set.
*paper needs to be printed.
*printed paper needs to reach all centres.
*centres which are government school need to be ready(some schools are being used as quarantine centres).
*people need to travel to centre citiesOther UPSC exam notifications and processes are postponed. Admit card usually comes by end of April. I guess we will know it then.
If a govt. can counter a disease with this force and mechanism, trust me, what you're questioning might not take much from them. Govt. imposed restrictions in a snap, it can remove them in a flash.
I feel everything else can be done while following certain norms to prevent the infection but when it comes to people travelling to centre cities there might be a very slight problem. But, I think it can be overcome by giving students enough time to move by making admit cards out a little earlier. Personal opinion, schools cannot be centres of quarantines till 31st May. schools don't have quarantine like facilities, so using them for capacity upgrade is not much viable. Other options, dharamshala, community halls, banquets etc. are better.
But, a little larger question they face would be , do we need to conduct the exam on 31stMay2020?
Economists would suggest, Yes. Politicians might suggest, No.
And, I see economists winning here, because such exams lead to expenditure and demand creation in the economy, remember how fiscal expenditure can help in recession and slowdown (Keynesian thought). These exams would be important to all lower economic classes which are bearing the burden of this lockdown.
Let's say, a candidate would spend atleast 10₹ to exam centre and 50₹ there , exam happens in two shifts. Taking last year figure, 8lakh people appeared for prelims, 60*8lakhs ~4.8 crore. And you know my nos. are not realistic, so yes, a significant amount would be spent by candidates all across India.
Politicians would say no , due to popular pressure due to sensitivity, social distancing dilemma. But, social distancing can be maintained at individual exam centres by allocating more no. of centres and health norms. All candidates wouldn't be taking exam at one centre, so it looks feasible, if you look from micro level.
Disjointed thought, many central ministries have opened today amid lockdown extension speculation, in that light, all future bureaucrats must be ready for the CSE atleast.
Politicians and Economists suggestions taken. Economists (~economics) leading. It would be interesting to see what are "vehicles of this financial assistance" in sixth para. that Chairman Finance Commission is also asking, would be.
I ,personally, wouldn't be surprised if all India exams (UPSC, NEET, JEE Mains etc.) are part of it as these can have better penetration into the economy and can hit right chords.
My reason
Urban areas don't have schemes like MNREGA, others. Also, these schemes are spatially specific in rural areas too. Since, India's MSME sector is ~111 million (~11crore) , it would be really tough for anyone to absorb them into such schemes too. So, the vehicle of financial assistance has to be really comprehensive and more penetrating. That's why I said, such exams are a definite policy instrument.
Adding on, urban poor people would be hurt more as rurals are self reliant to varying degrees.
Our BPL line is ~1400-1500₹ monthly (for urban, correct me if wrong) from C Rangrajan committee estimates. If 3 exams are conducted and if one guy earns 500₹ (which I think is practically feasible), his monthly income to sustain is provided (atleast according to govt., which according to me is fine provided they get PDS supplies).
Markets have been opened. Let's see, if demand gets created or not. I personally think, it can't be created by itself, though I hope that's not the case. News of social frustration this week among them would be a proxy indicator.
Adding on, creating new vehicles of assistance would come at a cost, which govt. might not want to incur (Budget constraints, time investment, not many long term uses etc.). One example where it got created : UP giving 1000₹ + Raashan to migrants when they come back home ,but, such opportunities are rare, you can't make them come and go again and again.
Anyway, Delhi Metro plan is ready too.
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/after-delhi-metro-opens-you-may-be-denied-ride-without-mask-aarogya-setu-pass/amp-11587649373682.html
Rephrasing original question to, what are chances of prelims being on time? There are and it would be strategic than a popular choice. UPSC can increase one attempt for everyone for compensation of this year (though that would not be perfect but these aren't normal times). If not, it wouldn't be too late. Saying it again, views are personal but I'm open to arguments and questions which are 'n' in numbers. I'm open to questions like "this is a public health emergence, you dumbo are thinking about economy" but please ask.
Lastly, I just want to point out, if this is worse than Great Depression (like many pointing out), I feel, the measures have to be really strict and strategic. And before any of that, we, the citizens, need to internalize it for our own benefit and society as a whole. If not taken, the situation can really hurt us. Let's not file 'n' emotional petitions with same demands, only one can do. The govt. knows the situation already. Please, let panic dissipate and reality sink in. These are tough times. Let's prepare. Peace.
Carrying forward your point of centrality to economics, there’s a concept call “economic threshold”. It is used in agriculture, when the potential damage to crops due to pest is more than than the holistic cost incurred on applying pesticide, that’s when pest management is undertaken.
I think there’ll be a time soon when economic threshold should factor in public policy (and discourse) in India vis a vis Corona management. At some point holistic cost of lockdown will exceed the holistic cost of allowing normalcy, hence sustained lockdown isn’t a prudent choice in the long run. Sustained lockdown will have bearing on growth-employment , which brings about poverty- death/suicide- chronic disease (chronicled during Great Depression and 2008 financial crisis).
Coming to your point of economics of exams, in theory I agree with you. Your point makes sense in terms of exams adding to economy, but I am not sure if that would be the reason for deciding prelims date (just my assumption, no fact based opinion). I feel the decision of exam will be backed by :-
1. Feasibility- logistical aspects
2. Public health concern
I agree to second para. and specifically time horizon thing.
To others: I agree many of my words ain't good (if that's the word). It's a tough situation to be in. I try to back with facts to keep it real and not add to anxiousness of situation. Sincere apologies. Ignore me, if possible. :)
I don't know what brat means and don't want to know.
So, I think the answer would be exactly C (more than wala option) if the question is not asked in some specific context, which I can safely assume in this case, UPSC is not. It is general studies paper.
Anyway, your arguments are welcome. Cross check elements of high powered money (I haven't checked it because being economics graduate I am 99% sure it would be) , and if demand deposits are there, it is safe to say money supply would increase by more than the amount.
