Paper I · Comparative Political Analysis and International Politics

NAFTA

Syllabus · Paper II-A · 10 — Regionalisation of World Politics : EU, ASEAN, APEC, AARC, NAFTA.

NAFTA & USMCA

The North American Free Trade Agreement (US, Canada, Mexico) came into force in 1994 — the first time two developed countries negotiated a trade pact with an emerging-market nation; combined GDP over US$20 trillion by 2018. Trade rose from about $290 billion (1993) to over $1.1 trillion (2016); Canada and Mexico became the top two US export destinations.

NAFTA’s limitations

  • Job losses and wage stagnation in US automotive and textiles — Dani Rodrik and Joseph Stiglitz noted relocation to lower-wage Mexico.
  • Weak labour and environmental enforcement — Robert Kuttner: NAFTA incentivised a “race to the bottom.”
  • ISDS let corporations sue governments over public-welfare policy, undermining sovereignty (Joseph Stiglitz). Robert E. Scott, The High Price of Free Trade — higher trade but job losses, deficits and downward wage pressure.

How USMCA (in force 2020) countered NAFTA

Lever Reform
Labour Mexico required to protect unionisation and wage bargaining — Robert E. Scott: mitigates the “race to the bottom.”
Environment Stronger commitments (marine litter, air quality, wildlife) with better enforcement.
ISDS Narrowed and eliminated between the US and Canada — a win for national sovereignty.
Rules of origin 75% North American vehicle content (up from 62.5%) plus a minimum-wage-rate component — steering production to higher-wage US/Canada.
Dairy & digital More US access to Canada’s dairy market (Mary E. Burfisher); new-age data-flow and localisation provisions (Susan Ariel Aaronson, Data is Different). A 16-year sunset clause with six-yearly review.

Assessments — Gary Clyde Hufbauer (NAFTA Revisited): auto rules and wage provisions reshape production. Jeffrey J. Schott and Monica de Bolle: rules-based trust and rare bipartisan support. M. Angeles Villarreal and Ian F. Fergusson: USMCA keeps North America competitive amid China’s rise.

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