{"id":1496,"date":"2026-08-09T19:12:01","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T13:42:01","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/psir-pyq\/the-recent-move-of-usa-to-withdraw-from-the-paris-upsc-psir-2017-3703\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T21:25:00","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T15:55:00","slug":"the-recent-move-of-usa-to-withdraw-from-the-paris-upsc-psir-2017-3703","status":"publish","type":"psir_pyq","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/psir-pyq\/the-recent-move-of-usa-to-withdraw-from-the-paris-upsc-psir-2017-3703\/","title":{"rendered":"The recent move of USA to withdraw from the Paris"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pq-flow\">\n<div class=\"pq-flow-h\">Flow snapshot <em>\u2014 how the answer moves<\/em><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p1\"><span>Intro routes<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 1<\/i> Paris (2015) = rare voluntary consensus, bottom-up NDCs, &lt;2\u00b0C <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> US exit a real setback (rests on collective commitment, not enforcement)<\/p>\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 2<\/i> US withdrawal (Trump 2017 <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> finalised 2020) = retreat from multilateralism <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> tests whether a consensus regime survives one major emitter leaving<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p2\"><span>Body flow<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p><b class=\"pq-sc\">Falkner<\/b>: exit weakens the collective commitment the accord depends on <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Ban Ki-moon<\/b>: US as 2nd-largest polluter burdens the carbon budget + makes finance harder <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> domino effect: developing states may relax pledges (decarbonisation cost + energy security) <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> onus shifts to EU \/ China \/ India (none experienced in a multilateral regime) + unclear Katowice Rulebook <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> dilution risk <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b>IPCC<\/b>: 1.5\u00b0C budget gone by 2030 even if Paris followed <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> bottom-up design absorbs the exit, US rejoins under Biden <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Stern<\/b>: link climate action to development for equity<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p3\"><span>Counter-view<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p>one emitter\u2019s exit can unravel a voluntary consensus (contagion, diluted finance) <b>vs<\/b> a bottom-up architecture is resilient \u2014 survives exits and re-entries, held together by remaining emitters, finance and equity<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p4\"><span>Conclusion routes<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 1<\/i> prospects turn on sustained finance + CBDR + leadership of the remaining emitters, not any single state<\/p>\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 2<\/i> setback real but not permanent <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> future secured by integrating climate with equitable development, not the presence of the US<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"template":"","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"pyq_year":[45],"pyq_marks":[31],"pyq_topic":[80],"pyq_paper":[69],"class_list":["post-1496","psir_pyq","type-psir_pyq","status-publish","hentry","pyq_year-45","pyq_marks-20-marks","pyq_topic-contemporary-global-concerns","pyq_paper-paper-2"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1496","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/psir_pyq"}],"version-history":[{"count":5,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1496\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4908,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1496\/revisions\/4908"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1496"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"pyq_year","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_year?post=1496"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_marks","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_marks?post=1496"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_topic?post=1496"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_paper","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_paper?post=1496"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}