{"id":1589,"date":"2026-08-09T19:12:10","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T13:42:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/psir-pyq\/given-the-recent-developments-in-the-region-do-you-think-that-upsc-psir-2019-4803\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T21:25:39","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T15:55:39","slug":"given-the-recent-developments-in-the-region-do-you-think-that-upsc-psir-2019-4803","status":"publish","type":"psir_pyq","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/psir-pyq\/given-the-recent-developments-in-the-region-do-you-think-that-upsc-psir-2019-4803\/","title":{"rendered":"Given the recent developments in the region, do you think that there is a need to change India\u2019s \u2018No First Use (NFU) nuclear policy?"},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pq-flow\">\n<div class=\"pq-flow-h\">Flow snapshot <em>\u2014 how the answer moves<\/em><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p1\"><span>Intro routes<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 1<\/i> locate NFU (1998 <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> 2003 doctrine, CBW caveat) <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> credible minimum deterrence <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> is it now a liability?<\/p>\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 2<\/i> region shifted (Pak tactical, China rise) <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> pressures real <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> stake the spine: capability, not first-use posture<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p2\"><span>Body flow<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p>case for revision: China ~500 warheads erode Himalayan buffer + Pak sub-conventional \/ Nasr <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Karnad<\/b> \u201cunenforceable,\u201d peacetime-only <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Chari<\/b> frees Pak\u2019s tactical use <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Clary<\/b> &amp; <b class=\"pq-sc\">Narang<\/b> counterforce logic + exceptions to NFU <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> capabilities present (missiles, surveillance, BMD) but disarming strike \u201cexceptionally difficult\u201d <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> intent outpaces capability<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p3\"><span>Counter-view<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p>retention holds: <b class=\"pq-sc\">Sethi<\/b> \u201cliberating\u201d (no first-use infra, no hair-trigger) <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Subrahmanyam<\/b> perception of survivable retaliation, not pre-emption <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Basrur<\/b> deployment differs little beyond declaratory policy<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p4\"><span>Conclusion routes<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 1<\/i> Sindoor 2025 = punish terror without nuclear signalling <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> read as gradual recalibration + doctrinal ambiguity, not reversal<\/p>\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 2<\/i> NFU suits conventionally dominant power, no existential threat <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> retain + strengthen triad \/ early warning \/ second-strike credibility<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"template":"","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"pyq_year":[37],"pyq_marks":[35],"pyq_topic":[87],"pyq_paper":[69],"class_list":["post-1589","psir_pyq","type-psir_pyq","status-publish","hentry","pyq_year-37","pyq_marks-15-marks","pyq_topic-india-and-the-nuclear-question","pyq_paper-paper-2"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1589","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/psir_pyq"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1589\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5001,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1589\/revisions\/5001"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1589"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"pyq_year","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_year?post=1589"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_marks","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_marks?post=1589"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_topic?post=1589"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_paper","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_paper?post=1589"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}