{"id":1590,"date":"2026-08-09T19:12:11","date_gmt":"2026-08-09T13:42:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/psir-pyq\/discuss-the-efficacy-of-indias-no-first-use-policy-nuclear-upsc-psir-2020-4804\/"},"modified":"2026-08-12T21:25:40","modified_gmt":"2026-08-12T15:55:40","slug":"discuss-the-efficacy-of-indias-no-first-use-policy-nuclear-upsc-psir-2020-4804","status":"publish","type":"psir_pyq","link":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/psir-pyq\/discuss-the-efficacy-of-indias-no-first-use-policy-nuclear-upsc-psir-2020-4804\/","title":{"rendered":"Discuss the efficacy of India\u2019s \u2018no first use\u2019 policy (nuclear weapons) in the context of the evolving strategic challenges from its neighbours."},"content":{"rendered":"<div class=\"pq-flow\">\n<div class=\"pq-flow-h\">Flow snapshot <em>\u2014 how the answer moves<\/em><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p1\"><span>Intro routes<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 1<\/i> NFU\u2019s efficacy \u2260 the pledge itself <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> rests on a survivable, assured second strike <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> 1998 <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> 1999 draft <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> 2003 doctrine (CBW caveat)<\/p>\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 2<\/i> retaliation-only pledge (shared with China) <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> real question = does it still deter evolving neighbour threats?<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p2\"><span>Body flow<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p>case for NFU (<b class=\"pq-sc\">Sethi<\/b>: no costly first-use infra \/ hair-trigger <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> de-mated posture; <b class=\"pq-sc\">Koithara<\/b>: eases command-and-control) <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> escalation burden shifted to the adversary <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> evolving threats test it <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> Pakistan TNW\/Nasr + sub-conventional blunt the conventional edge <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Karnad<\/b>: massive retaliation vs a small tactical strike not credible <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> China\u2019s fast growth (~600 warheads\/SIPRI; Pentagon &gt;1,000 by 2030) <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> eroded Himalayan buffer <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> <b class=\"pq-sc\">Narang<\/b>: neither credible toward China nor minimal toward Pakistan <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> India\u2019s reply = capability, not reversal (triad, Agni-V MIRV 2024, Operation Sindoor calibrated strikes; ORF urges flexibility)<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p3\"><span>Counter-view<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p>expansionist strain: NFU forces India to absorb the first strike, \u201cmassive\u201d threat empty against tactical use, counterforce temptation <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> vs moderate case: economy, de-mated stability, no decapitation capability, first use invites an arms race<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-fb\">\n<div class=\"pq-pill p4\"><span>Conclusion routes<\/span><\/div>\n<div class=\"pq-ft\">\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 1<\/i> NFU still efficacious for a dominant power facing no existential threat <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> task = survivability + clearer signalling, not abandonment<\/p>\n<p class=\"pq-r\"><i class=\"pq-rt\">Route 2<\/i> discarding NFU changes little in deployment but costs the responsible-power image <span class=\"pq-ar\">\u2192<\/span> strengthen triad \/ early warning \/ second strike, retain the pledge<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"template":"","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"footnotes":""},"pyq_year":[41],"pyq_marks":[35],"pyq_topic":[87],"pyq_paper":[69],"class_list":["post-1590","psir_pyq","type-psir_pyq","status-publish","hentry","pyq_year-41","pyq_marks-15-marks","pyq_topic-india-and-the-nuclear-question","pyq_paper-paper-2"],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1590","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/psir_pyq"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1590\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":5002,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/psir_pyq\/1590\/revisions\/5002"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1590"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"pyq_year","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_year?post=1590"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_marks","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_marks?post=1590"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_topic","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_topic?post=1590"},{"taxonomy":"pyq_paper","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/forumias.com\/psir\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pyq_paper?post=1590"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}