Here's my 2 cents:
Until and unless the covid graph has reached its peak (or plateau top) and considerable decline has not been noted, there is gonna be no exam. We, in mad race for an examination/job (howsoever important it may seem right now) have forgotten a basic fact that it's a mere exam and there's a whole big world outside which doesn't care about it. The same world has real vulnerable people whose lives matter. Timely Lockdown and its positive effects (lesser mortality) have lulled us all into a false sense of security.
You have given X years to this exam? Is this your last attempt? You had taken a leave from job and have to return back there? You are almost on last leg financially and will now have to return your hometown? You had given your interview and expecting a double digit rank still being forced to study? I get your problem. It's tough being in your position. Mentally, physically, psychologically. But.
But, with all due respect, your problems are nothing in front of lives getting lost forever. It's an unprecedented situation, occuring after 100 odd years. Let's accept we are mere mortals living at mercy of the nature. Our lives simply don't matter much. Ok, way too philosophical.
So, when's exam gonna happen?
Noone knows exactly. That's the answer. Noone likes it, I know. Most of you can't accept it. Most of us are pretty weak to not accept uncertainty in life. Despite the fact that uncertainty is only thing certain in larger scheme of things in our life.
Still, intelligent guess?
For that just look at graph of Covid cases around the world. And the fact that we are now gonna open the economy (which will accelerate the cases further). Look at US. They are still not far down the peak. 2 months have passed since deaths began there. By any logic, it will take minimum of 2 more months (saying only at this point) to register zero deaths. Yes, I am not talking about cases but deaths (3% of registered cases).
Apply the same about India. We are nowhere near the peak yet (cuz no decline noted yet). Summers didn't help much, neither did Indian immunity or genes or anything. People get infected here and die. Bit lesser than the West, but still people are dying. UPSC can't take a chance until deaths have gone to zero. UPSC can't take exam if there is even one district in so called red zone (where students can't move safely in public transports). More so, many students are stuck at places without study materials for whom UPSC has promised minimum 1 month of time. Looking at all factors, I DON'T SEE EXAMINATION HAPPENING BEFORE SEPTEMBER. (Saying this without considering the effects of lockdown easing, effects of which will come after a week or two).
PS: There is also possibility of no exam happening this year at all if new factors come into play. They might be: 1. 2nd wave of infection after monsoons, 2.Higher mortality rates after lockdown easing, 3.Any other untoward factor coming up from nowhere complicating the game further. Nature doesn't care about schedules or graphs or curves. Nature just acts.
Also. The shops selling test series and stuffs have their own interests. And it's justifiable in economic sense. A fear of exam date (good even if it continues shifting every other month) keeps the business churning. Fear sells.
Should you give up preparation, then? Of course not. But do it knowing all truth. Don't do it being an ignorant fool or an unrealistic ostrich. Foolishness doesn't suit UPSC aspirants. Astuteness and accepting reality does. Be cool and calm with heads right on the shoulders.
Here's my 2 cents:
Until and unless the covid graph has reached its peak (or plateau top) and considerable decline has not been noted, there is gonna be no exam. We, in mad race for an examination/job (howsoever important it may seem right now) have forgotten a basic fact that it's a mere exam and there's a whole big world outside which doesn't care about it. The same world has real vulnerable people whose lives matter. Timely Lockdown and its positive effects (lesser mortality) have lulled us all into a false sense of security.
You have given X years to this exam? Is this your last attempt? You had taken a leave from job and have to return back there? You are almost on last leg financially and will now have to return your hometown? You had given your interview and expecting a double digit rank still being forced to study? I get your problem. It's tough being in your position. Mentally, physically, psychologically. But.
But, with all due respect, your problems are nothing in front of lives getting lost forever. It's an unprecedented situation, occuring after 100 odd years. Let's accept we are mere mortals living at mercy of the nature. Our lives simply don't matter much. Ok, way too philosophical.
So, when's exam gonna happen?
Noone knows exactly. That's the answer. Noone likes it, I know. Most of you can't accept it. Most of us are pretty weak to not accept uncertainty in life. Despite the fact that uncertainty is only thing certain in larger scheme of things in our life.
Still, intelligent guess?
For that just look at graph of Covid cases around the world. And the fact that we are now gonna open the economy (which will accelerate the cases further). Look at US. They are still not far down the peak. 2 months have passed since deaths began there. By any logic, it will take minimum of 2 more months (saying only at this point) to register zero deaths. Yes, I am not talking about cases but deaths (3% of registered cases).
Apply the same about India. We are nowhere near the peak yet (cuz no decline noted yet). Summers didn't help much, neither did Indian immunity or genes or anything. People get infected here and die. Bit lesser than the West, but still people are dying. UPSC can't take a chance until deaths have gone to zero. UPSC can't take exam if there is even one district in so called red zone (where students can't move safely in public transports). More so, many students are stuck at places without study materials for whom UPSC has promised minimum 1 month of time. Looking at all factors, I DON'T SEE EXAMINATION HAPPENING BEFORE SEPTEMBER. (Saying this without considering the effects of lockdown easing, effects of which will come after a week or two).
PS: There is also possibility of no exam happening this year at all if new factors come into play. They might be: 1. 2nd wave of infection after monsoons, 2.Higher mortality rates after lockdown easing, 3.Any other untoward factor coming up from nowhere complicating the game further. Nature doesn't care about schedules or graphs or curves. Nature just acts.
Also. The shops selling test series and stuffs have their own interests. And it's justifiable in economic sense. A fear of exam date (good even if it continues shifting every other month) keeps the business churning. Fear sells.
Should you give up preparation, then? Of course not. But do it knowing all truth. Don't do it being an ignorant fool or an unrealistic ostrich. Foolishness doesn't suit UPSC aspirants. Astuteness and accepting reality does. Be cool and calm with heads right on the shoulders.
So, my analysis was dot correct. It's not happening before September!
It looks UPSC has followed 2nd path (easier yet illogical and untruthful) keeping the sensibilities of the sissy type lesser mortals in mind- of giving a distant probable date instead of saying "Frankly we can't say anything ryt now."
Let's see if it happens by then or not.
By 4th October, for the exam to happen:
१. Daily death toll should be near zero.
२. There has to be no containment zone anywhere in India.
३. Herd immunity to levels of more than sixty percent should be reached.
४. Or a vaccine should have been developed.
Otherwise, they will have to shift the date once again to some further date.
Here's a fact: Corona reached US in early Feb, after four months today, their daily death toll is still १०००+. And statistically, it will need more than two months AT MINIMUM to reach about zero daily toll. That's a period of six months very conservatively disregarding any other negative factor. And India is four times USA in population. And we have slowed down the spread meaning it will take yet longer to reach peaks/plateau top and then taper off.
Logically bole to Meri baat maano, chill karo is saal. No exam is possible this year, especially in favourite months of flu.If not that itna to hai October mein bhi hone ke chances bahut kam hain.
PS: Two minutes silence for those KUTAs (Keen & unimaginative type aspirants) who were illogically spreading the news (and fear) that exam will be taken on time (३१ May) earlier and then July/August. Hari Om🙏
Strange times we living in, strange dilemmas we facing up.
Better to be objective and rational rather than blind and emotional.
Noone loves uncertainty. That's why some people choose blind 'No', others blind 'Yes'.
Leave corona numbers and infection chances, moral and health hazard stuff away for a while, let's put a Question:
Those commenting that exam is certain, please enlighten how an aspirant staying in a remote village having to reach his Prelims Centre (in a big city some 100s km away) whose bus/train option is almost nil, staying and fooding and last mile connectivity option at the City so uncertain can be sure she can reach the center on time and write her exam???
Edit- Here's the exact source from where the oldies at UPSC might have framed this Question:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.nipfp.org.in/media/pdf/books/BK_33/Chapters/1.%2520Import%2520Substitution%2520Strategy%2520Of%2520Economic%2520Development.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjchf6165DrAhXMR30KHd2zAGcQFjAAegQIOxAB&usg=AOvVaw2eP8OGxy4NOWXsjXggParx
ps: You will excel at administration. Don't waste time here. Quote me directly when you wish to.
Personally, for him, his two choices are equally bad. He has no future in politics. IF (a big if) he reenters IAS, he would have lost support and respect of kashmiris, his colleagues, juniors and seniors- a sort of pariah.
Feel bad for him.
He was one of the biggest reasons to draw me towards Civil services preparation a decade back.
