I see a lot of people here making abstract reasoning of economy and Keynesian Multipliers and UPSC as the God of Constitutional Bodies and what not. Your reasoning is well accepted. Now let me also let you in from a different perspective: I work as a Under-Secretary to a certain North Indian State Government.
As on date, the governments only and only care about preventing corona spread. Everything else, every government business is on hold. We don't want to take chances of any sort with this disease. Hence the great degree of restrictions everywhere.
Economy is very important. One person above said we will generate something in the ball park of 10 crore or something by UPSC Preliminary. May be. But what is 10 crore in the scheme of things? An average block has a Rural Development Budget that exceeds that amount significantly. How many blocks are there in India? So 10 crore is not an amount that even registers in the scheme of things.
The only basis of exam postponement decision is whether students can appear on 31st and whether there were disruptions in run up to exams. As I write this there are people who can't take leaves because emergency duty. There are people whose notes are in different cities. There are people who have to worry about their meals. Not everyone can afford a 2000 rupee a month Broadband connection while living in ORN paying rent equal to1/3rd of my monthly salary! These are real problems of real people. Someone has to consider them! But assume that UPSC is a heartless organization run by people who dont care or know these things. (I say assume because the people in UPSC are some of the best officers India has seen)
The real reasons so to say will be these:
By May end, the Country will just be emerging from the infection spread. A large event such as Preliminary will be very hazardous at that point. Statistically, we will be at the similar level as at the start of the infection. We dont want to kickstart a second wave as say Hongkong/ Sinagapore did. The point is why would I do risk infections to 4/5 lakh persons who will give the exam? Sure the exam timetable will get topsy turvy. But this is an un-usual year. So adaptations have to be made accordingly by everyone including government including UPSC.
Remember also that while the govt response has been great it is not very precise. in the area of my my current jurisdiction, despite no cases since the start, just 3 days ago we got 8 cases out of thin air! How? No one know. No travel history or contact with previously positive persons. So we need to allow sufficient buffer before we become assured that this corona has died out!
If it were left to me to take a decision on this exam, I would like to postpone the exam indefinitely until I assess things somewhere around 31srth May give or take 3 days (it will be 28 days since 3rd May). Then, if all is okay, hold the exam around 21st (+/- one week) June at the earliest, if the cases are not yet rising.
PS 1: I am writing this to also so that those of you who are in service currently and have been unable to take leave to kindly appeal to the UPSC and DopT via Email to consider the present situation.
PS 2: Please do not get complacent and say that a government official is saying this so postpone will definitely happen. No, that decision will be taken by UPSC on 3rd MAy 2020. So until then keep studying and UPSC will take the final call.
Now that UPSC is taking a view on Prelims on 20th May, here is what I think.
The opinion is entirely mine. It has no linkage with official decision making.
On 17th of May, if the situation is better, which means the plateau phase has begun in the curve, the government will surely think of more relaxations.
For UPSC, the priority is in this order: Final result of 2019 process>Prelims 2020. CSE is the Ace in the pack of cards that UPSC held exams are. Accordingly, it gets highest priority. So, if everything is up and running, around 3- 4 weeks time will likely be given for the Prelims. Which means at the earliest, get ready for exams around 21st or 28th June. The reason why UPSC has perhaps not given a date in August or any other month is that it wants to be open to the possibility of holding it before that. I also feel that UPSC might request the Political executive to refrain from making any commitments regarding further delays.
In the earliest possible scenario, UPSC must give 3-4 weeks for all stakeholders to get their act together. That is why I am saying 21st or 28th June at the earliest.
How late can it happen?
That depends on GoI lockdown pattern as the UPSC has shown that it will like to follow GoI schedules and not opt for its own assessment of the Covid Situation.
Until 20th May, I would suggest, continue with Prelims prep. After that, do as per UPSC schedule.
PS: THIS IS MY PERSONAL OPINION AND DOESN'T REFLECT THE OFFICIAL STANCE OF ANY GOVERNMENT OR UPSC. USE OWN DISCRETION IN DECODING THE CURRENT SITUATION.
@Punjabi_Snow_Leopard how much are u scoring btw? those around you?
After checking and rechecking my final tally is 104.5 .... A friend is getting 112, other is getting 107, one is getting 101 one is getting 97. What about you
