Table of Contents
Today’s brief reads three articles. R Swaminathan in the Deccan Herald argues that the Strait of Hormuz, and not the bombing, will decide the war with Iran. Mahesh Sachdev in The Hindu reads the new Saudi, Turkiye and Pakistan defence pact as one more Saudi search for cover. S Y Quraishi in the Indian Express asks the Election Commission to earn the trust of the side that loses.
Six months of bombing have not moved Iran off the Strait of Hormuz.
R Swaminathan writes that the war with Iran is in its sixth month and the United States has run out of moves. Heavy bombing no longer buys military gains. A ground invasion to force a surrender is not on the table. The one thing Washington wants is an open Strait of Hormuz. That is the one thing Iran holds. So the road back to peace now runs through a bargain over the strait.
The facts that matter
- The conflict began on 28 February. Since then President Donald Trump has halted planned military strikes against Iran on six separate occasions.
- The latest pause came after a telephone call from Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and joint pressure from other Gulf states. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi had warned them that Iran would answer a strike by attacking their energy and desalination infrastructure.
- The Houthis in Yemen declared a maritime embargo against Saudi shipping and Red Sea ports. They then struck Saudi oil tankers and energy sites along the Red Sea.
- That embargo has undermined the Saudi plan to send oil past the Strait of Hormuz through the East-West Pipeline. Saudi tankers are now routed around Africa to reach buyers in Asia.
- Iraqi militias backed by Iran attacked crude stabilisation units in the Eastern Province of Saudi Arabia over two days. Saudi Arabia then joined the United States in air strikes on militia command centres in Iraq.
- Iran has announced a tentative agreement with Oman on a bilateral transit corridor. It says maritime security cannot be assured while the United States naval blockade of Iranian ports stands.
- Article 43 of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea lets states share the cost of keeping an international strait safe and clean by voluntary agreement. The author offers it to Washington as a legal way out.
Why it matters for PSIR
Here is a weaker state using geography against a stronger one. Iran cannot match American military power. It can still close the water through which the Gulf sells its oil. Carry the case into answers on national interest, security and power, and on what military force cannot buy.
The energy link is direct. The second article in this brief gives the figure: India is the world’s third largest importer of crude oil. A strait that shuts is an Indian problem and not only a Gulf one. That is the ground for the GS-2 question on energy security in Indian foreign policy.
“Resolving the Hormuz deadlock offers the only plausible path for Washington and Tehran to resume negotiations on nuclear and other issues.”
R Swaminathan
The Makkah pact is the third security deal Saudi Arabia has bought in one year.
Mahesh Sachdev reads the Makkah Joint Defence Agreement as a Saudi answer to a bad year. He does not read it as the birth of a Muslim NATO. Riyadh trusts neither American protection nor Iranian restraint. So it has signed three security deals in twelve months. The rest of the article sets out what divides the three partners, and the narrow conditions in which such a pact can work at all.
The facts that matter
- The Makkah Joint Defence Agreement, or MJDA, was signed on 7 August 2026 by the top leaders of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan. Its text has not been made public.
- The joint statement says that any armed attack against any one of the three states shall be regarded as an attack against them all. That wording echoes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization.
- It is the third such step in a year. Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement with Pakistan last year, and joined a 14 country Multinational Maritime Defence Alliance in the last week of July.
- The three bring different things. Saudi Arabia has a defence budget of 83 billion dollars. Turkiye has a military industry that exports 10 billion dollars a year. Pakistan has armed forces of 660,000.
- Pakistan has a 900 kilometre border with Iran and a large Shia minority. In the same week as the pact it began formal talks with Iran on a Free Trade Agreement, in spite of United States sanctions and of its own two defence pacts.
- India is the world’s third largest importer of crude oil, and is expected to drive global demand for the next 15 years. India has been the third largest market of the Kingdom and its second largest trading partner.
Why it matters for PSIR
This is a clean case for the standard question on when an alliance holds. Sachdev says the pact works only in a long war of small attacks. In a full war Turkiye and Pakistan would be slow to fight Iran, which is their neighbour. If peace returns, the pact loses its purpose. A promise bought out of anxiety behaves in this way.
For India the advice is measured. Watch the Pakistani attempt to line the partners up against India. Do not treat the pact as a new bloc. Saudi trade with India is too large for the Kingdom to pay for a war on the Pakistani side. That is the line for answers on India and West Asia, and on collective security.
“Riyadh finds ties with India uncluttered by extraneous considerations. India is a geo-strategically safe bet for the turbulent Gulf.”
Mahesh Sachdev
An Election Commission trusted only by the winner has already failed.
S Y Quraishi is a former Chief Election Commissioner. He sets out one rule for the office. The ruling party needs regulation. The Opposition needs reassurance. The Commission must supply both. His claim is that the duty is not an equal one, because the two sides are not equal in power. The party in office already commands the administrative machinery. The Opposition has only its voice.
The facts that matter
- The framers placed the Election Commission beyond the reach of the executive. It was made an independent constitutional authority, charged with protecting the integrity of the electoral process.
- A serving civil servant who is appointed Election Commissioner gives up his service and takes a constitutional office. Quraishi resigned from the Indian Administrative Service a year before he was due to retire.
- In T. N. Seshan v. Union of India, and later in Anoop Baranwal v. Union of India, the Supreme Court held that an independent Election Commission is indispensable to free and fair elections, which form part of the basic structure of the Constitution.
- One of the most important chapters of the Model Code of Conduct is written for the Party in Power. It restrains ministers from using official machinery for campaigning, bars the misuse of public resources, and stops policy announcements that may sway voters.
- During the 2024 general election, Opposition parties said their complaints about breaches of the Model Code were not heard promptly or openly. Election Commissioner Ashok Lavasa protested, and the author writes that he was hounded out.
- More recently 23 Opposition parties wrote to the Chief Justice of India about the handling of the Special Intensive Revision of electoral rolls. The Trinamool Congress alleged discourtesy in its dealings with the Commission, which the Commission denied.
- The example Quraishi gives is from the Bihar Assembly election of 2010. On the eve of counting, Lalu Prasad Yadav asked that only bank employees supervise counting in his constituency, and the request was granted. He telephoned again after losing, inclined to question the voting machines, and took the advice not to.
Why it matters for PSIR
The distinction to carry into an answer is the one Quraishi draws. Independence on paper is not independence in conduct. A Commission may hold every legal safeguard and still appear close to the government of the day. What he asks for is distance from the executive, a quick hearing for whoever asks, and small accommodations that cost the Commission little.
The second point is the sharper one. Treating both sides alike is not neutrality when one side already commands the state machinery. That is why the Model Code carries a chapter for the party in power. Use the argument in answers on the Election Commission and on the basic structure. It also fits the 2025 Paper I question on how the Chief Election Commissioner is appointed.
“In my experience, most defeated candidates can accept defeat. What they find difficult to accept is the feeling that nobody listened to them before they lost.”
S Y Quraishi
Where this sits in your syllabus
Open the note and read the full topic.
The questions this feeds
Questions from earlier years that today’s reading speaks to. Where the answer is written, the red link opens it. The full set is in the PYQ Vault.
- GS-2 · 2025 · 15m"Energy security constitutes the dominant kingpin of India's foreign policy, and is linked with India's overarching influence in Middle Eastern countries." How would you integrate energy security with India's foreign policy trajectories in the coming years?
- PSIR Paper II · 2023 · 15mWhat are the challenges and limitations in India-Iran relations?Answer
- PSIR Paper II · 2024 · 15mDo you agree with the view that the USA uses NATO as a traditional tool of strategy to perpetuate its hegemony in the world?Answer
- PSIR Paper II · 2025 · 10mWould you agree with the contention that India's inclination to lean on a 'more aggressive hyper-realist posture' has gained a new momentum in the aftermath of the Pahalgam terrorist strike?Answer
- PSIR Paper I · 2025 · 15mThere is a debate on the procedure for appointment of the Chief Election Commissioner and Election Commissioners to the Election Commission of India. Analyse its various aspects.
- GS-2 · 2025 · 10mDiscuss the 'corrupt practices' for the purpose of the Representation of the People Act, 1951.