Route 1 twins still run on 1944 arithmetic → US 16.5% + 85% veto / G7 ~43% → BRICS ~11% against half the world’s people, a fifth of output → Strange: “structural bias” → stake the line: challenge runs on two tracks, inside and outside

Route 2 power has moved, votes have not → the grievance is representation, not membership → rising powers neither exit nor accept → press for voice inside while building alternatives outside → same two-track spine

Track 1 (inside): votes must follow economic weight → 2010 quota package (~6% shift; India 2.3 → 2.6, China 3.8 → 6) → contest the European-MD / American-President convention → BRICS bargain as a bloc → India’s 2023 G20 presidency presses reform → Track 2 (outside): AIIB / NDB / BRICS CRA → finance and liquidity without conditionality (Stiglitz: conditionality deepened the 1997 Asian crisis) → Woods: a different development paradigm — infrastructure, industrialisation, poverty reduction over neoliberal prescription → exit works back as leverage inside → Kahler: “responsible stakeholders” or parallel institutions

veto survives → leadership convention holds → quota shifts too small to move the balance → Weiss: incremental reform cannot answer an obsolete architecture → new banks may fragment rather than replace

Route 1 gains real but partial → monopoly over development finance broken, control of the twins intact → drift from Kindleberger’s hegemonic stability towards Keohane–Nye complex interdependence

Route 2 close on Kahler’s fork → the West’s choice is to accommodate the rising powers inside or watch the parallel architecture grow outside → reform is the price of keeping the twins central