Route 1 Aug 2021 removes the government India backed → Pakistan gains the depth it sought → Narayanan “patron saint” → India returns by treating the new rulers as a fact to be used

Route 2 India’s Afghan stake outlived the Republic → delivery record survives the regime change → engagement resumes on interest, not approval

move 1: deal with the regime itself → mend ties realistically → counter “strategic depth” through security cooperation → JeM / LeT under a regime that looks the other way → distance costlier than contact → move 2: fall back on the delivery advantage → Sanjeev Kumar / Peking 2018 study → more than UN and NATO gave → $2 bn in energy and highways → China limited to relief and vaccines → move 3: hold the line on recognition → contacts with the ousted Republic’s leaders → Russia engaged without unsettling the West → seat inside the settlement

Sareen: engage, isolate, oppose together, engagement alone is not policy → Katju: still no permanent presence in Kabul → what has been regained is access, not standing

Route 1 Chaudhuri: facts used, not changed; recognition kept back as discretion → India is back in, on access not presence

Route 2 the return rests on delivery record and calculation → firm only when presence in Kabul follows