[Results] Prelims 2020 Over - Gearing for 2021
Because of the corona virus issue? If it does not happen then worst affected will be people whose interview is stuck, around 600-700 such people I think are yet to appear for their interview.
@neyawn sir and others, what is your take?
This is the official Thread for discussion of Prelims Postponement, Please do not create new threads for the same.
There are two possibilities due to which the prelims exam can happen this year or early Jan (or else it will be a washout),
1. The efficacy of Favipiravir: It will be clear in the next month or two. If this actually brings down viral load in 4 days for 80-90% of people with mild/moderate infections, then things will open up very soon.
2. I personally think that the testing numbers are nowhere close to the reality, I feel that crores (around 20-30% of our population) have already been infected and because majority of the cases are asymptomatic, they may have gone unnoticed. At this rate, we may see the peak in Sept-Oct because 50-60% of population would have been infected (if everything is opened, like now) and because of herd immunity, we may see a fall in numbers, result of which things can slowly crawl back to normalcy by Jan 2021. [I feel that Mumbai is experiencing peak right now and numbers may begin to fall by next month]
If the above two hypothesis turn out to be false, then we would be heading towards a lot of uncertainty in the foreseeable future.
GaryVee,
So yesterday, we had a new single day high again (36K nearly)
Now let's try and see if we can work our way backwards from October 4th and predict the future course of events :
October 4th is the D day
by September 15th they need to start dispatching question papers to various centers and get on with their administrative work.
by September 15th they need to start mailing our admit cards too.
so between August 30th and 7th September, they must sit down and finalize their decision to hold the exams after all.
And by the looks of it, by August 30th we are looking at 50-60 K cases (a modest guess) or even 70-80K (worst case scenario) cases per day if the situation keeps deteriorating.
or even if a miracle were to happen today itself and the graph starts to flatten and then go down, even that would require a good 2-3 months till cases become negligible.
so where does that leave them and their decision ? Are they seriously willing to risk safety of Lakhs of aspirants , not to mention the family members of these aspirants and the endless chain of contacts that can emanate from these family members ?
More importantly, where does that leave us and our constant struggle to keep ourselves motivated ? we went all guns blazing from Feb to April (despite having to travel to our hometowns and not having our books and resources) ; then mellowed down when we got clarity in May ; joined essays and mains programs to possibly make up for our errors in syllabus completion. And its already July 15th and we are supposed to start with Prelims again. But for all we know, exam might get postponed again.
Speculate all you can fellow aspirants.
Bas himmat mat haarna.
By the looks of it, our battle is pretty much on course to get extended further and we will need every shred of willpower to keep pushing and stay consistent.since you have elaborated on most of it so let me add a pinch in it:-
India is currently banking on a vaccine of corona. testing has started on 7th of july at 12 centers across India including AIIMS patna & Delhi.
Everything depends upon the success of this vaccine. GOI, ICMR is very close, I must say and plan is to launch it on 15th of AUG by NAMO. It has to survive on all parameters till Aug, 14. Till then and if not. Nobody has a power to conduct paper pencil test in India and till what time??? Till any other vaccine/medicine i.e. =1/0.
Prefer not to give any closing line because we are 135crore.Vaccine on Aug 15th is a gimmick to say the least. Human trials take a lot of time and it's availability in 2021 also has slim chances. It takes 3 to 4 months to manufacture just millions of doses. India is a country with a billion and so, let's not have false hopes on these matters.
Problem no 1: we don't trust our govt. how are you sure about "gimmick"? I have seen the official circular then mentioned it here.
Problem no 2: mfg estimate. Boss India is a world leader in the vaccine. If this trail becomes successful 3/4 months are more than enough for us to manufacture and deliver it to the whole world.
Time delivery: Yes it takes at least 6/8 months for tests. very true. But there is some story. they are using some existing research that was going on for long at the National Institute of Virology. since I am not aware of this so won't claim it.
but, I trust my govt and its units so very much hopeful.
P.S: no arguments please and pardon.
Immunity, especially herd immunity, is not a very safe bet. In case of virus infection, the immunity is not long lasting. Already some reports are saying that antibodies decrease considerably after 3 months and in some cases they're absent/undetectable.
Secondly bulk of our population is in rural areas where health system is at its weakest.depending on Favipiravir is a long shot if you just account for the numbers.Right now Bihar and Uttar Pradesh are where Delhi and Maharashtra were in May, it's disheartening to imagine what's going to happen in the coming months.
Thirdly, administration is adamant on going through with its work. It has realised that delaying exams when people are voluntarily risking themselves is not a pragmatic solution in any case. Prelims may be delayed but I don't think it's going to be a washout in any case. The option of centre change has also minimised the travel required (although I know it's not a huge relief as the number of centres haven't been increased). If UGC can literally threaten to take action if exams are not conducted by September end,I'm sure UPSC and other like examinations will also not be delayed any further. I guess they'll offer an extra attempt to those who are unable to appear for prelims on 4th October.
GaryVee,PizzzaSo yesterday, we had a new single day high again (36K nearly)
Now let's try and see if we can work our way backwards from October 4th and predict the future course of events :
October 4th is the D day
by September 15th they need to start dispatching question papers to various centers and get on with their administrative work.
by September 15th they need to start mailing our admit cards too.
so between August 30th and 7th September, they must sit down and finalize their decision to hold the exams after all.
And by the looks of it, by August 30th we are looking at 50-60 K cases (a modest guess) or even 70-80K (worst case scenario) cases per day if the situation keeps deteriorating.
or even if a miracle were to happen today itself and the graph starts to flatten and then go down, even that would require a good 2-3 months till cases become negligible.
so where does that leave them and their decision ? Are they seriously willing to risk safety of Lakhs of aspirants , not to mention the family members of these aspirants and the endless chain of contacts that can emanate from these family members ?
More importantly, where does that leave us and our constant struggle to keep ourselves motivated ? we went all guns blazing from Feb to April (despite having to travel to our hometowns and not having our books and resources) ; then mellowed down when we got clarity in May ; joined essays and mains programs to possibly make up for our errors in syllabus completion. And its already July 15th and we are supposed to start with Prelims again. But for all we know, exam might get postponed again.
Speculate all you can fellow aspirants.
Bas himmat mat haarna.
By the looks of it, our battle is pretty much on course to get extended further and we will need every shred of willpower to keep pushing and stay consistent.since you have elaborated on most of it so let me add a pinch in it:-
India is currently banking on a vaccine of corona. testing has started on 7th of july at 12 centers across India including AIIMS patna & Delhi.
Everything depends upon the success of this vaccine. GOI, ICMR is very close, I must say and plan is to launch it on 15th of AUG by NAMO. It has to survive on all parameters till Aug, 14. Till then and if not. Nobody has a power to conduct paper pencil test in India and till what time??? Till any other vaccine/medicine i.e. =1/0.
Prefer not to give any closing line because we are 135crore.Vaccine on Aug 15th is a gimmick to say the least. Human trials take a lot of time and it's availability in 2021 also has slim chances. It takes 3 to 4 months to manufacture just millions of doses. India is a country with a billion and so, let's not have false hopes on these matters.
Problem no 1: we don't trust our govt. how are you sure about "gimmick"? I have seen the official circular then mentioned it here.
Problem no 2: mfg estimate. Boss India is a world leader in the vaccine. If this trail becomes successful 3/4 months are more than enough for us to manufacture and deliver it to the whole world.
Time delivery: Yes it takes at least 6/8 months for tests. very true. But there is some story. they are using some existing research that was going on for long at the National Institute of Virology. since I am not aware of this so won't claim it.
but, I trust my govt and its units so very much hopeful.
P.S: no arguments please and pardon.
URL: https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/explained-icmr-claims-it-wants-to-launch-covaxin-by-august-15-heres-what-you-need-to-know-6488296/
URL: https://www.deccanherald.com/business/business-news/indias-serum-institute-to-make-millions-of-potential-coronavirus-vaccine-doses-831248.html
Goodluck!
PS: I can both trust my govt and call a gimmick as gimmick at the same time.
I rest my case.
So yesterday, we had a new single day high again (36K nearly)
Now let's try and see if we can work our way backwards from October 4th and predict the future course of events :
October 4th is the D day
by September 15th they need to start dispatching question papers to various centers and get on with their administrative work.
by September 15th they need to start mailing our admit cards too.
so between August 30th and 7th September, they must sit down and finalize their decision to hold the exams after all.
And by the looks of it, by August 30th we are looking at 50-60 K cases (a modest guess) or even 70-80K (worst case scenario) cases per day if the situation keeps deteriorating.
or even if a miracle were to happen today itself and the graph starts to flatten and then go down, even that would require a good 2-3 months till cases become negligible.
so where does that leave them and their decision ? Are they seriously willing to risk safety of Lakhs of aspirants , not to mention the family members of these aspirants and the endless chain of contacts that can emanate from these family members ?
More importantly, where does that leave us and our constant struggle to keep ourselves motivated ? we went all guns blazing from Feb to April (despite having to travel to our hometowns and not having our books and resources) ; then mellowed down when we got clarity in May ; joined essays and mains programs to possibly make up for our errors in syllabus completion. And its already July 15th and we are supposed to start with Prelims again. But for all we know, exam might get postponed again.
Speculate all you can fellow aspirants.
Bas himmat mat haarna.
By the looks of it, our battle is pretty much on course to get extended further and we will need every shred of willpower to keep pushing and stay consistent.since you have elaborated on most of it so let me add a pinch in it:-
India is currently banking on a vaccine of corona. testing has started on 7th of july at 12 centers across India including AIIMS patna & Delhi.
Everything depends upon the success of this vaccine. GOI, ICMR is very close, I must say and plan is to launch it on 15th of AUG by NAMO. It has to survive on all parameters till Aug, 14. Till then and if not. Nobody has a power to conduct paper pencil test in India and till what time??? Till any other vaccine/medicine i.e. =1/0.
Prefer not to give any closing line because we are 135crore.Vaccine on Aug 15th is a gimmick to say the least. Human trials take a lot of time and it's availability in 2021 also has slim chances. It takes 3 to 4 months to manufacture just millions of doses. India is a country with a billion and so, let's not have false hopes on these matters.
Problem no 1: we don't trust our govt. how are you sure about "gimmick"? I have seen the official circular then mentioned it here.
Problem no 2: mfg estimate. Boss India is a world leader in the vaccine. If this trail becomes successful 3/4 months are more than enough for us to manufacture and deliver it to the whole world.
Time delivery: Yes it takes at least 6/8 months for tests. very true. But there is some story. they are using some existing research that was going on for long at the National Institute of Virology. since I am not aware of this so won't claim it.
but, I trust my govt and its units so very much hopeful.
P.S: no arguments please and pardon.
Govt told parliamentary pannel that no vaccine before 2021 . Vaccine development takes years if not decades . Though this is emergency time having some doubt is not bad.. people genetics differ.. in some people not properly tested vaccine can evoke cytokine storm . So before we inject these vaccines to babies we have to be sure .
https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/kerala/2020/jul/16/amid-spurt-in-covid-19-cases-over-one-lakh-students-in-kerala-appear-for-keam-entrance-exam-2170517.html
The exam will be on time. Several exams, such as the one above, shall have been conducted by then. Please focus on studies instead of speculating here. If it is indeed postponed, which seems unlikely now, we can adjust preparation accordingly.
MaeveWiley,Chaotic_homo
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newindianexpress.com/cities/thiruvananthapuram/2020/jul/17/social-distancing-goes-for-a-toss-at-entrance-exam-centres-in-trivandrum-2170791.amp.
Should have read and shared this as well!!
If such thing can happen in Kerala, imagine what would happen if such thing is replicated at pan India level.
There were SPECIAL arrangements for students with symptoms!! Can you imagine what it means.
Clearly, there would be serious repercussions from this episode.
Ankit_sahu,https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newindianexpress.com/cities/thiruvananthapuram/2020/jul/17/social-distancing-goes-for-a-toss-at-entrance-exam-centres-in-trivandrum-2170791.amp.
Should have read and shared this as well!!
If such thing can happen in Kerala, imagine what would happen if such thing is replicated at pan India level.
There were SPECIAL arrangements for students with symptoms!! Can you imagine what it means.
Clearly, there would be serious repercussions from this episode.
Looks like govt does nt care.. There might be a consensus on preparing nation for herd immunity . Students and unemployed/ aspirational youth ll lead the march .
@rafael Kerala has relatively better health infra how can 1 xpect the same all over India esp eastern 1??Its no wher even in talks compared 2 Tamil Nadu,Maharashtra ,Gujarat,Karnataka Or Delhi.Though i desperately wnt xam 2 b held in oct i can give written assurance 70% chances it cant b!!
And don't forget the BIMARU states plus the central Indian state
@rafael Kerala has relatively better health infra how can 1 xpect the same all over India esp eastern 1??Its no wher even in case talks compared 2 Tamil Nadu,Maharashtra ,Gujarat,Karnataka Or Delhi.States r going 4 lockdown while its conducting xams see Bihar or parts of even Karnataka.Though i desperately wnt xam 2 b held in oct i can give written assurance 70% chances it cant b!!
As per article exam was held in delhi ncr and mumbai as well ...
@pizzzaViral load for 80-90% people have never been the problem. The problem is those 10-20% who require hospitalization and may have serious consequences. Favipravir doesn't work in them.
I humbly disagree. It has been one of the major problems. You never know who among the 100% goes into that severe 10% (People without co-morbidity and young citizens are also dying), therefore reducing viral load for everyone is the need of the hour so that the lesser people reach severe stage. The logic behind Favipiravir is "early intervention for all" and therefore reduce overall numbers.
The battle is not so much physiological, but psychological and a medicine/vaccine will help us to come back to normalcy with confidence, without that even an asymptomatic covid patient is freaking out like he would die. The game is all mental.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.newindianexpress.com/cities/thiruvananthapuram/2020/jul/17/social-distancing-goes-for-a-toss-at-entrance-exam-centres-in-trivandrum-2170791.amp.
Should have read and shared this as well!!
If such thing can happen in Kerala, imagine what would happen if such thing is replicated at pan India level.
There were SPECIAL arrangements for students with symptoms!! Can you imagine what it means.
Clearly, there would be serious repercussions from this episode.
Looks like govt does nt care.. There might be a consensus on preparing nation for herd immunity . Students and unemployed/ aspirational youth ll lead the march .
I second you. That is exactly what it looks like, at least right now. Herd immunity and expecting things to miraculously go away.
Pursuit of herd immunity brought alot of damage to UK. However if the government has considered such a move it would have a disastrous unimaginable outcome.Also many if them are talking about peak to reach by September. That imo is not only early but also illogical as prediction.Total testing with reference to population is still low compared to USA.moreover I am even certain that there is proper goof up in recovery rates as well.We have reached such a level that even prediction of peak is questionable.Ps: I was myself covid positive, but was sent home after 14 day quarantine without even testing. They just checked my body temperature for 5 consecutive days and made it mandatory to assess through aarogya setu. Thus I can say with certainty, recovery rate in India is questionable!
Bhai kitni testing karenge?? disease has reached the villages of UP & Bihar. These figures are just a random number.
No-one can imagine whats the reality. Various state govts are not increasing testing then also numbers are increasing. imagine a delhi like testing will result in ??
i fear to imagine.
GaryVee,Pizzza
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