PYQ Vault · Paper 2 · Changing International Political Order
Discuss the various constraints on American hegemony today. Which of these are likely to become more prominent in the future?
How the answer moves
The flow snapshot — the routes in, the body, the counter-view and the routes out.
Flow snapshot — how the answer moves
Intro routes
R1 hegemony ~ military dominance alone → realist material base + Gramscian consent through ideas/institutions — both foundations under strain → spine: foundational constraints, not flashpoints, will grow R2 start from the record: Iraq, Afghanistan 2021, Ukraine → force no longer enforces outcomes → so the real constraints sit in the material base and in consent — same spine
Body flow
material constraint: China (technology, markets, value chains, since 2008) + Russia (Eastern Europe, Middle East) — limits of force (Iraq / Afghanistan / Ukraine) — economic constraint: Gilpin's fragility (dollar, MNCs, nuclear weapons) → deficit spending + instability → de- dollarisation (China, Russia, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia) → institutional constraint: AIIB, NDB vs Bretton Woods → China's weight in the UN system → ideational constraint: liberal order's appeal weakened → Rapp-Hooper's “alliance deficit"
Counter-view
not collapse → Ilhan: American pullback creates a "false perception" of multipolarity → neither Russia nor China is yet a peer competitor
Conclusion routes
R1 what grows is what touches the foundations: technology and supply chains, de-dollarisation, institutional competition —> Taiwan and the Indian Ocean test the hegemon; a peer competitor can replace it R2 constraints limit, they do not dismantle → adaptation, not collapse, settles the outcome (Zakaria)
Model answer
Handwritten, in the form it would be written in the examination hall.
