PYQ Vault · Paper 2 · Changing International Political Order

Discuss the various constraints on American hegemony today. Which of these are likely to become more prominent in the future?

How the answer moves

The flow snapshot — the routes in, the body, the counter-view and the routes out.

Flow snapshot — how the answer moves
Intro routes

Route 1 hegemony ≠ military dominance alone realist material base + Gramscian consent through ideas/institutions both foundations under strain spine: foundational constraints, not flashpoints, will grow

Route 2 start from the record: Iraq, Afghanistan 2021, Ukraine force no longer enforces outcomes so the real constraints sit in the material base and in consent same spine

Body flow

material constraint: China (technology, markets, value chains, since 2008) + Russia (Eastern Europe, Middle East) limits of force (Iraq / Afghanistan / Ukraine) economic constraint: Gilpin’s fragility (dollar, MNCs, nuclear weapons) deficit spending + instability de-dollarisation (China, Russia, India, Iran, Saudi Arabia) institutional constraint: AIIB, NDB vs Bretton Woods China’s weight in the UN system ideational constraint: liberal order’s appeal weakened Rapp-Hooper’s “alliance deficit”

Counter-view

not collapse Ilhan: American pullback creates a “false perception” of multipolarity neither Russia nor China is yet a peer competitor

Conclusion routes

Route 1 what grows is what touches the foundations: technology and supply chains, de-dollarisation, institutional competition Taiwan and the Indian Ocean test the hegemon; a peer competitor can replace it

Route 2 constraints limit, they do not dismantle adaptation, not collapse, settles the outcome (Zakaria)

Model answer

Handwritten, in the form it would be written in the examination hall.

Handwritten model answer — UPSC PSIR 2023, Changing International Political Order