9 PM Daily Current Affairs Brief – June 16th, 2023
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Mains Oriented Articles
GS PAPER - 2
Is the ranking system of colleges flawed?
Contents
Source: The post is based on an article “Is the ranking system of colleges flawed?” published in The Hindu on 16th June 2023.
Syllabus: GS 2 – Issues Related to Education
Relevance: concerns with NIRF rankings
News: The 2023 National Institute of Ranking Framework (NIRF) rankings have recently been announced.
About the NIRF rankings
A significant portion of the ranking is focused on the research and professional practices component of the evaluation since they place a high value on bibliometric measurements.
What are bibliometrics?
Bibliometrics refers to the measurable aspects of research, such as the number of papers published, the number of times they are cited, and the impact factors of journals.
The bibliometrics has been used as a measuring tool for assessing research due to its efficiency and convenience compared to qualitative assessments performed by subject experts, which are more resource-intensive and require time.
However, science policy experts have cautioned authorities against relying too much on bibliometrics as a complete assessment.
What is the issue with overly relying on bibliometrics?
Bibliometric indicators don’t fully capture the complexities of scientific performance, and there is a need for a more comprehensive evaluation methodology.
Further, the NIRF rankings have faced criticism regarding the effectiveness and fairness of its approach to ranking universities.
The NIRF relies on commercial databases like ‘Scopus’ and ‘Web of Science’ to obtain bibliometric data, but these databases are not immune to inaccuracies or misuse.
Moreover, the NIRF’s publication-metrics indicator only considers research articles, neglecting other valuable intellectual contributions such as books, book chapters, monographs, and non-traditional outputs.
As a result, the NIRF indirectly encourages researchers to prioritize work that is more likely to be published in journals, particularly international journals.
These hampers work that focuses on national and local issues, as international journals prefer work on topics of global significance.
Must Read: Why Delhi and Tamil Nadu colleges lead the way
Is the NIRF transparent?
University rankings, including NIRF, Times Higher Education World University Rankings, and QS World University Rankings, have generated controversy due to their flaws.
The NIRF is partly transparent as it publicly shares its methodology, but it doesn’t provide a detailed view.
The framework for assessment and scoring is based on bibliometric data. However, there are issues with how they define and evaluate research quantity and quality.
What can be the way ahead?
Due to the flaws present in the NIRF ranking, the emphasis on its rankings can foster unhealthy competition among universities and prioritizing metrics over the actual goal of measuring excellence in education and research.
How India’s G20 presidency can address global hunger
Source- The post is based on the article “How India’s G20 presidency can address global hunger” published in “The Indian Express” on 16th June 2023.
Syllabus: GS2- Issues related to poverty and hunger
Relevance- hunger related challenges at global level and India role in ending it
News– The G-20 ministerial meeting on agriculture will take place in Hyderabad.
What are the challenges faced by the international community on the hunger front?
For the first time in decades, there is a rising number of hungry people. This is despite the fact that the world produces enough food to feed 10 billion people.
Today, more than 800 million people sleep hungry. Many of them are small-scale farmers who produce one-third of the world’s food.
Hunger is rural. Three-fourths of the world’s poorest and food insecure live in rural areas. Rural economies, specifically agriculture, have suffered from chronic under-investment.
Low- and middle-income countries are increasingly indebted. Global inflation and local currency depreciation is creating issues in financing their development and climate action.
Donor support for agriculture has stagnated at 4-6% of total official development assistance (ODA) for at least two decades. After peaking at US$10.8 billion in 2020, it fell 10% to US$9.9 billion in 2021.
Estimates suggest that there is a need for US$300-400 billion annually until 2030 to transform food systems. So investment needs to grow at least 30 times.
Why is investment in rural agriculture a win-win situation for both governments and companies?
For governments, boosting local production, local food chains and local markets means global food security, jobs and less conflict. It will also mean lower GHG emissions.
For the private sector, investing in small-scale farmers is beneficial. Production costs are low, returns on capital are high. Farmer organisations and cooperatives have shown they can achieve economies of scale.
These investments can build long-term resilience and reduce the impact of climate change and other shocks.
Every US$1 spent on resilience saves up to US$10 in emergency aid in the future. Investing in agriculture is at least 2-3 times more effective in reducing poverty than investment in other sectors.
Why does India’s G-20 presidency assume critical importance in tackling the challenges related to hunger?
India’s G-20 presidency assumes critical importance in mobilising resources. It can ensure that every person has access to affordable, safe, sufficient and nutritious food.
It can be done by increasing digitisation, making insurance attractive for farmers and insurers, providing access to easy and discounted loans, securing land rights and strengthening farmers’ organisations.
India is a crucial partner in the mission to end rural poverty and hunger. Leveraging the panchayat system, India has successfully built robust community institutions. They have strengthened people’s ability to manage their own development.
These experiences are an inspiration for countries attempting to become food secure. India has shown thoughtful leadership in advancing South-South and triangular cooperation. This has only deepened with its increasing economic weight.
The Indian presidency has committed to depoliticise the global supply of food, fertilisers and medical products, so that geopolitical tensions do not lead to humanitarian crises.
Jumpstarting the next phase of U.S.-India defence ties
Source- The post is based on the article “Jumpstarting the next phase of U.S.-India defence ties” published in “The Hindu” on 16th June 2023.
Syllabus: GS2- Bilateral groupings and agreements
Relevance– Issues related to India and US bilateral relationship
News- United States Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin travelled to India from June 4-5 to reinforce the major defence partnership and advance cooperation in critical domains.
What are key takeaways from the visit?
There was an agreement on a road map for defence industrial cooperation. It was announced as part of the U.S.-India initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) agreement announced in May 2022.
The road map envisages boosting defence manufacturing in India through greater technological cooperation. it potentially repositions the U.S. in the broader context of the U.S.-India strategic relationship.
A road map to promote collaboration in the defence industry was unveiled. The road map aims to expedite crucial co-development and co-production initiatives.
There was the launch of a new initiative, Indus-X. This builds on the U.S.-India bilateral Space Situational Awareness arrangement signed in 2022, which promises to enhance information-sharing and cooperation in the space sector.
New areas in defence space exchanges have been identified based on the cooperation between the U.S. Space Command and India’s Defence Space Agency.
Why is the defence partnership between India and the US important in the context of Indo-pacific?
During the 2+2 Ministerial Dialogue in April 2022, the U.S. Defence Secretary referred to the U.S.-India defence partnership as the cornerstone of their engagement in the Indo-Pacific.
The combined threat assessments by India and the U.S. in the region point to China as a common and most conspicuous challenge.
China’s Military Power Report 2022 brought out by the U.S. states that the People’s Liberation Army Navy is the world’s largest navy by number of ships. The subsurface presence of China is likely to increase in the Indian and Pacific Oceans.
Why is industrial cooperation in the defence sector important for bilateral relationships?
A strong rationale for broader industrial cooperation between Indian and U.S. companies in the defence sector is the existing scale of American investments in India. The U.S. government is exhorting its companies to support India’s defence modernisation.
In the long run, this could lead to growth of an ecosystem of joint ventures between companies. The U.S. can gain a larger share in the Indian defence manufacturing. Co-development and co-production by both will be achieved.
American companies led by Boeing, Lockheed Martin, BAE Systems, Honeywell Aerospace, Raytheon, are partnering with Indian companies in the defence sector.
These are likely to be supplemented by linking defence start-ups from both countries through an ‘innovation bridge’ that was announced in the iCET agreement.
Hotspot Minsk – Russia’s likely delivery of tactical nukes to Belarus will set a dangerous, destabilising global precedent
Contents
Source: The post is based on the article “Hotspot Minsk – Russia’s likely delivery of tactical nukes to Belarus will set a dangerous, destabilising global precedent” published in The Times of India on 16th June 2023
Syllabus: GS 2 – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.
Relevance: About Russia – Belarus nuclear deal.
News: Belarus will be taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear warheads soon. This represents a serious blow to the nuclear non-proliferation regime.
About Russia – Belarus nuclear deal
It was announced in March against the backdrop of the Ukraine war. Belarus has served as a launchpad for Russian troops. Hence, both nations signed a deal to transfer the nukes.
Both nations said that the move is in response to growing Western “threats” and might lead to the deployment of US nuclear weapons across Nato bases in Europe since the 1950s.
About US nuclear warheads in Europe
The US nuclear warheads in countries such as Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, Italy and Turkey are kept in vaults with the US keeping the Permissive Action Link codes to arm them. Now, these deployments are considered a legacy of the Cold War and represent no change in the security posture of the host nations.
What are the challenges in Russia – Belarus deal for the globe?
a) Though Russia said it will retain control of the deployed nukes, there is no guarantee, b) Belarus is an autocratic state. So, the state wouldn’t hesitate to use the nukes in case of aggression against it, c) The transfer is taking place when Russia and Belarus are active participants in an ongoing war. This has the potential to create catastrophic consequences for the world. For instance, the US including Taiwan under its nuclear umbrella or stationing nukes in Taiwan could dramatically change security equations in East Asia.
What should be done?
The world should preserve the post-Cold War nuclear arms control architecture. India and China, which already disapproved the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, should ask Russia to stop the transfer of nukes.
Culture shift: UNESCO must act on nations exiting, re-entering on frivolous grounds
Contents
Source: The post is based on the article “Culture shift: UNESCO must act on nations exiting, re-entering on frivolous grounds” published in The Hindu on 16th June 2023
Syllabus: GS 2 – Important International institutions, agencies and fora- their structure, mandate.
Relevance: About the US rejoining UNESCO.
News: The United States has recently said that it will rejoin the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO). The US rejoining might bring in atleast $600 million in outstanding dues to UNESCO.
Note: The Reagan administration withdrew from UNESCO in 1984 citing various reasons including the “advancing Soviet interests”.
About US withdrawal and reason for rejoining UNESCO
The Obama administration in the US ceased funding UNESCO in 2011. Later in 2017, the US withdrew from the organisation. This is due to “an anti-Israel bias” and it alleged UNESCO has some favourable towards Palestine.
The reason for the U.S’.s return is China. According to the US, the U.S.’s absence had helped China gain “more influence” in setting the rules around artificial intelligence and the ensuing technological shifts. Thereby China has gained significant developments in AI.
Why US is worried about Chinese advancement in AI?
Product patents and their enforcement have helped countries such as the U.S. to maintain their edge. But with AI, China made significant developments due to advantages like a much larger population and a more powerful surveillance state. This is visible from China’s increasing product patents and research publications.
About the US’s ‘America First’ policy decision on International forums
During the pandemic, in 2020, the U.S. withdrew from funding the World Health Organization. This is because of WHO’s ‘inadequate’ response time to the gravity of the pandemic originating in China. Later following political change, the US rejoined WHO.
Similarly, the US withdrew from the Paris Agreement and later rejoined after political change.
What should be done?
It is high time that countries such as India should point out a) to make stricter provisions for countries exiting and entering on frivolous grounds, and b) to frame policies and research that accommodate the political tussles in a hyper-connected world.
India – China border dispute: Three years after Galwan clash– Explained, pointwise
Contents
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Introduction
Three years after the infamous Galwan clash, the India-China border dispute still remains a significant geopolitical issue. The deadly encounter in the Galwan Valley marked a turning point in Sino-Indian relations, leading to heightened tensions and military buildup along the Line of Actual Control (LAC). While some progress has been made through rounds of diplomatic and military talks, many friction points persist. This ongoing dispute continues to strain the bilateral ties, making its resolution critical for regional peace and stability.
About the Galwan Clash
The Galwan Valley clash, occurring on the night of June 14-15, 2020, marked a pivotal moment in India-China relations. For the first time in 45 years, soldiers from the Indian Army and China’s People’s Liberation Army engaged in a fatal altercation at the Line of Actual Control (LAC), resulting in significant casualties on both sides. The conflict, sparked by China’s attempts to alter the LAC status quo, ignited deep tensions and mutual distrust.
Three years later, despite diplomatic, political, and military discussions, these issues remain unresolved. Both nations continue to enhance their military presence and infrastructure along the LAC, amidst fluctuating perspectives on the situation’s gravity. The disengagement in key areas remains incomplete, and India insists on returning to the April 2020 status quo. This complex dispute requires continual vigilance, ideally leading to a peaceful, mutually beneficial resolution.
Read more: Playing Chinese Checker: PLA’s big aim at LAC is to get India to accept China’s hegemony. We must see this & prepare |
What is the status of the present conflict between India and China?
Ongoing standoff and military preparedness: The conflict between India and China following the Galwan Valley clash in 2020 remains unresolved, with both sides maintaining a significant military presence along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC). India has significantly enhanced its military infrastructure, surveillance capabilities, and combat readiness, closing the “infrastructure differential” with China.
Diplomatic and military talks: 18 rounds of high-level military talks have been conducted so far, focusing on disengagement and restoring peace along the LAC in eastern Ladakh. Some success has been achieved, with disengagement in several areas following extensive diplomatic and military discussions.
Media row: The ongoing dispute between India and China concerning journalists, tensions have escalated as China has reportedly ordered the last Indian journalist remaining in the country to leave. The representative from the Press Trust of India (PTI) has been instructed to leave China, effectively erasing any Indian media presence from the country.
Difference of opinion in LAC: There is a significant difference in how the two sides perceive and project the situation at the LAC. While China portrays the situation as gradually shifting to a normalized management phase, India views the border situation as “very fragile” and “quite dangerous.” Furthermore, India demands the restoration of the status quo of April 2020 at Ladakh, which China has consistently refused.
Future relations: India maintains that the normalization of bilateral ties with China is contingent upon peace in the border areas. China, on the other hand, seeks to put the border issue aside to focus on building a broader relationship. This fundamental disagreement continues to hamper the resolution of the conflict.
Must read: Disengagement agreement at Pangong Tso Lake – Explained |
What is the status of boundary talks between India and China?
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High-level military talks: These talks aim to encourage disengagement in the friction points and to restore peace along the LAC. Though some progress has been made through these discussions, a mutually acceptable solution to all the remaining points of contention is yet to be agreed upon.
Achievements of the talks: As a result of the ongoing diplomatic, political, and military conversations, troops have successfully disengaged from multiple areas including Galwan Valley, the north and south banks of Pangong Tso, and the Gogra Post-Hot Springs area. This indicates that despite the friction, both sides are willing to engage in dialogue to resolve conflicts.
Key issues remain unresolved: China has been resistant to discussing the strategic Depsang Plains and Demchok areas, stating that these are “legacy issues” that predate the April 2020 clashes and hence do not come under the purview of the current talks. This resistance has created a deadlock in the negotiations, further complicating the already strained relationship between the two nations.
Diverging perspectives and expectations: There is a clear divergence in how both countries view the progress and the outcome of these talks. China seeks to normalize the situation, urging India to separate the border issue from the broader bilateral relationship. India, on the other hand, insists that peace and tranquillity in the border regions are a prerequisite for any normalization of bilateral relations. This fundamental difference in perspective continues to pose challenges to the success of the talks.
Read more: India China rebooting ties Post – Doklam |
What are the challenges in resolving the India – China border dispute?
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Historical Disagreements and ‘Legacy Issues’: The India-China border dispute has a long and complex history that dates back to the 1962 border war. The presence of ‘legacy issues’, such as the disputes over Depsang Plains and Demchok, which China refuses to discuss under current talks, adds an additional layer of complexity.
Unilateral actions: China’s attempts to unilaterally alter the status quo along the LAC, including military incursions into Indian territory, have significantly escalated tensions and complicated resolution efforts.
Strategic concerns and nationalistic sentiments: The strategic importance of the disputed territory, coupled with nationalistic sentiments on both sides, makes it more difficult for either government to compromise or concede territory.
Military build-up and infrastructure development: Both sides have been strengthening their military presence and infrastructure along the LAC, signalling preparedness for potential conflict and reducing the space for a peaceful resolution.
Lack of trust and mutual suspicion: The deadly clashes of 2020 have deeply impacted the level of trust between the two nations, leading to heightened suspicion and uncertainty. This lack of trust creates a volatile environment that is not conducive to long-term conflict resolution.
Imbalance in buffer zones: The establishment of buffer zones during the disengagement process has resulted in India losing more territory than China. This imbalance creates further tension and makes conflict resolution more difficult.
Media and diplomatic relations: Relations outside the border conflict, like the tit-for-tat war over journalists, further strain the relationship between the two nations, making it harder to find common ground and cooperate in resolving the border dispute.
Read more: Lessons and Challenges for India after a Year of Galwan Clash |
What should be done?
Continued dialogue and negotiations: Both nations must continue high-level talks, keeping dialogue channels open to facilitate negotiation and mutual understanding. Military, political, and diplomatic conversations should be maintained to reduce tension along the LAC.
Establish trust: Building trust is crucial in resolving any conflict. To this end, both countries should actively avoid actions that could exacerbate the situation, such as unilateral attempts to alter the status quo, and work towards fostering an environment of mutual respect and understanding.
Resolve legacy issues: The legacy issues, including unresolved border claims, should be addressed in the negotiations, without discarding them as matters predating the current conflict. This would ensure a comprehensive solution to the border dispute.
Balanced disengagement: Future disengagements should aim for a balance, ensuring neither side disproportionately loses territory in the creation of buffer zones. This will help to maintain the equilibrium and contribute to a long-term peaceful resolution.
Improvement of broader relations: While addressing the border dispute is essential, it would be beneficial to also focus on improving the broader bilateral relations. For instance, both countries could work towards resolving issues such as the ongoing media dispute.
Third-party mediation: If bilateral talks do not result in a breakthrough, considering a neutral third-party mediator could be an option. However, both countries must agree to this, and it should not be perceived as an infringement on their sovereignty.
Sources: Indian Express (Article 1 and Article 2), Swarajyamag, Financial Express, Economic Times (Article 1, Article 2 and Article 3), Tribune, Live Mint, WION and The Diplomat
Syllabus: GS 2: International Relations: India and its neighbourhood- relations.
GS PAPER - 3
India’s slow but sure de-industrialisation is worrying
Source: The post is based on the article “India’s slow but sure de-industrialisation is worrying” published in Live Mint on 16th June 2023.
Syllabus: GS 3 – Indian Economy – Growth & Development
Relevance: concerns with manufacturing sector
News: The national accounts data released last month showed India’s provisional GDP growth rate at 7.2% in 2022-23. This was higher than the government’s estimates and also that of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
However, the data also suggests that the structural reasons that contributed to the Indian economy’s slowdown before the pandemic are still present and may have worsened.
What structural reasons are still present in the Indian economy?
The continued weakness of private consumption and investment suggests that the economy is suffering from weak demand.
The GDP estimates show that the manufacturing sector, which is the largest sector of the economy in terms of GDP share and the third largest in terms of employment, grew only at 1.3%. This is its second lowest growth in the last 25 years.
Moreover, manufacturing sector growth was 7.8% annually between 2003-04 and 2013-14, which increased to 9.1% between 2013-14 and 2017-18, but then declined to almost a third at 3.4% in the last five years.
Similarly, the share of manufacturing in the GDP has also declined.
What does the weakening manufacturing sector imply?
A weakening manufacturing sector raises concerns for the overall economy, especially for employment as this sector serves as a big source of jobs.
According to the employment and unemployment survey of the National Statistical Office (NSO), manufacturing accounted for 12.6% of all workers in 2011-12. This declined to 10.9% in 2020-21.
The declining share of manufacturing in overall economic output as well as employment is a worrying sign for the economy’s long-term growth prospects.
This decline signifies a gradual de-industrialization of the economy, which will not only impact output growth but also employment and income growth.
Despite various policies like the ‘Make in India’, PLI schemes, and corporate tax benefits, the slowdown has continued. This suggests a policy bias in favor of large corporations rather than strengthening small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
This also indicates the problem of declining demand in the Indian economy. Despite policy efforts and state incentives, the manufacturing sector has suffered due to a reduction in its consumer base.
What can be the way ahead?
Due to the declining trend in the manufacturing sector, workers have shifted from manufacturing to agriculture.
Although agriculture has played a significant role in the economic recovery from the pandemic, it is unlikely to continue its contribution due to increasing input prices and the threat of El Niño.
Therefore, a revival of India’s manufacturing sector is necessary. Hence, the key to boost the manufacturing sector lies in boosting overall demand in the economy, especially discretionary spending.
Pathways to a Viksit Bharat
Source- The post is based on the article “Pathways to a Viksit Bharat” published in the “Business Standard” on 16th June 2023.
Syllabus: GS3- Development
Relevance- Issues related in making India an advanced economy
News– The Government of India in 2022 set itself the goal of a “Viksit Bharat”.
What is the meaning of an advanced economy?
The size of the economy is important for many reasons. But, it does not alone qualify a country for advanced status.
For instance, China is the world’s second largest economy. But, it is not considered advanced. Its average citizen is four times poorer than the average Britisher and six times poorer than the average American.
Similarly, India is now the world’s fifth largest economy, having overtaken the UK. But, the average Indian is 20 times poorer than the average Britisher.
In 2022, the International Monetary Fund categorised 41 countries as advanced economies. But, its definition is not clear or consistent over time.
The World Bank uses a cut-off of gross national income per capita of $13,205 in 2022 prices. It classifies around 80 countries in the “high-income” category.
The United Nations Development Programme adds a human dimension through HDI index to GNI per capita. It classifies 66 countries into the “very high human development” category. It is a rough definition of an advanced economy.
What is the level of growth in GNI and HDI needed for India to become an advanced economy?
The World Bank and the UNDP have clear criteria to define an advanced economy. It will take 25 years at a growth rate of 7% per annum in GNI per capita to reach today’s developed country’s GNI per capita of $13,205.
This means GNI must grow at around 8% per annum for the next 25 years, factoring in population growth.
India’s HDI score in 2021 was 0.633. To reach the cut-off of very high human development at 0.8 will require HDI annual growth of around 0.9% per annum.
India’s growth in HDI was around 1.25% per annum between 1990 and 2021. India’s HDI grew at only 0.88 per cent per annum from 2010-21. So, to reach the very HDI category will require to keep this rate for the next 25 years.
India must use its demographic dividend much better than it has done so far. Rising inequality has also hurt its score.
The UNDP calculates that India’s HDI score declines by 24% due to inequality. Halving inequality would increase India’s HDI score above 0.7 and classify India into the high HDI category.
What is the way forward for India to achieve the goal of a “Viksit Bharat”?
To become an advanced economy, India not only needs a more “Samruddha Bharat” but also needs to make a more “Sajit Bharat” (inclusive).
Many upper middle-income countries such as Argentina and Brazil are stuck in the so-called middle-income trap. They did not build the institutional strength required to make a successful attempt to become a developed economy.
India must first strive to reach the upper middle-income status that requires a GNI per capita of $4,255 in 2022 prices. If India grows at 7% in GNI per capita, it will reach the upper income status by around 2032.
Likewise, the UNDP has a “High” human development category. India with an HDI score of 0.633 can reach that category by about 2032 as well.
To reach this intermediate stage, there is a need for stronger institutions, infrastructure, and human capital.
If India reaches this stage, it could fall into the middle-income trap. Once there with stronger human capital and institutions, India can plan for “Viksit Bharat” @ 100.
Reflections on Artificial Intelligence, as friend or foe
Contents
Source- The post is based on the article “Reflections on Artificial Intelligence, as friend or foe” published in “The Hindu” on 16th June 2023.
Syllabus: GS3- Awareness in the fields of IT, Computers, Robotics.
Relevance- Issues related to AI
News- Artificial Intelligence (AI) has been dominating the headlines. The Association for Computing Machinery released a statement in October 2022 on ‘Principles for Responsible Algorithmic Systems’, a broader class of systems that include AI systems.
What are the areas of use for AI?
AI systems are capable of exhibiting superhuman performance on specific tasks. This is evident in the field of chess, biochemistry for protein folding.
The performance and utility of AI systems improve as the task is narrowed. It makes them valuable assistants to humans.
Speech recognition, translation, and even identifying common objects such as photographs, are just a few tasks performed by AI systems today. It even exceeds human performance in some instances.
A big moment for AI was the release of ChatGPT. ChatGPT is a generative AI tool that uses a Large Language Model to generate text. Writing could now be outsourced to it.
What are limitations of AI?
Their performance degrades on more “general” or ill-defined tasks. They are weak in integrating inferences across situations based on the common sense humans have.
What are some facts about Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
It refers to intelligence that is not limited or narrow. Take the example of human common sense. It is absent in AI systems.
There are no credible efforts towards building AGI yet. Many experts believe AGI will never be achieved by a machine. Others believe it could be in the far future.
True AGI will be a big deal. AGI may lead to AI “machines” bettering humans in many intellectual or mental tasks.
Scenarios of super-intelligent machines enslaving humans have been imagined. AGI systems could be a superior species created by humans outside of evolution.
However, the hype and panic about LLMs or AI leading directly to human extinction are baseless.
Some experts predict that AGI may be evolved from GPT-4. AGI could emerge from a bigger LLM in the near future.
Other experts refute this. Current LLMs and their successors are not even close to AGI.
What are the possible types of dangers arising from AI?
Superhuman AI: The danger of a super intelligent AI converting humans to slaves. This is a highly unlikely scenario.
Malicious humans with powerful AI: AI tools are relatively easy to build. Even narrow AI tools can cause serious harm when matched with malicious intent.
LLMs can generate fake news. Public opinion can be manipulated to affect democratic elections. AI tools work globally. Individual malice can instantly impact the globe.
Governments may approve or support such actions against “enemies”. There is no effective defence against malicious human behaviour.
There are concerns about AI-powered “smart” weapons in the military. Unfortunately, calls for a ban are not effective in such situations.
Highly capable and inscrutable AI: AI systems will continue to improve and will be employed to assist humans. They may end up harming some sections more than others unintentionally.
These systems are created using Machine Learning from data and can perpetuate the shortcomings of the data. They may introduce asymmetric behaviours that go against certain groups.
Camera-based face recognition systems have been shown to be more accurate on fair-skinned men than on dark-skinned women.
Privacy is a critical concern. Every person can be tracked always, violating the fundamental right to privacy.
Another worry is about who develops these technologies and how. Commercial entities with huge computational, data, and human resources are the centres of action.
There is no effective public oversight. Everything that affects humans significantly needs public oversight or regulation. There is little understanding about effective regulation without stifling creativity.
Between jobs & slavery: Addressing informal employment is the key
Contents
Source: The post is based on the article “Between jobs & slavery: Addressing informal employment is the key” published in the Business Standard on 16th June 2023
Syllabus: GS 3 – Employment.
Relevance: About the issues with Global Slavery Index.
News: Recently Global Slavery Index 2023 has been released. The report highlights that the G20 nations alone account for more than half the people living in modern slavery. However, India does not figure in the top 10 nations in terms of the incidence of slavery per 1,000 people.
Note: The last edition of the Global Slavery Index was published five years before in 2018.
What are the key findings of the Global Slavery Index 2023?
Read here: Global Slavery Index 2023: G20 nations fuelling modern slavery |
What are the concerns with Global Slavery Index?
Methodology applied: It is derived from a broad estimate partially based on a “risk score.” The score deploys the same factors to determine whether a nation falls under the “developing” header or not. This automatically leaves the developed nations, mostly in Europe, with relatively delicate scores.
Real slavery is underestimated: Burgeoning African and West Asian refugee crisis and slowing economies suggest that modern slavery may be more prevalent than the surveys suggest.
Issues with sample size: In the past, India had complained that the sample size of the surveys was skewed and the survey’s assumptions ignored the country’s unique socio-economic factors.
The issue with the definition: Global Slavery Index follows no internationally accepted norm and is constantly recalibrated. For instance, the index includes child labour, sexual exploitation, human trafficking, and forced labour from forced marriage within the definition of modern slavery.
About India’s measurement of modern slavery
In India, the proximate term for slavery is bonded labour, which was outlawed in 1976. But the term bonded labour is narrowly defined. The Supreme Court expanded the definition to include workers paid below the prevailing market and legal minimum wages. However, there is no definitive data on modern slavery in India.
For instance, according to the Ministry of Labour and Employment, 93% of the country’s workforce falls in the unorganised sector. In that area, the benefits and oversight mechanisms against exploitation are non-existent.
What should be done?
The government introduced the e-Shram portal for unorganised sector workers to register and receive pensions, insurance, and death benefits. About half the workforce has registered on the portal. Now the real test will lie in how easily retired informal workers can access these benefits.
Rules of recovery: Settlement framework provides another option
Source: The post is based on the article “Culture shift: UNESCO must act on nations exiting, re-entering on frivolous grounds” published in the Business Standard on 16th June 2023
Syllabus: GS 3 – Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment.
Relevance: About the Framework for Compromise Settlements and Technical Write-offs.
News: Recently, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced the “Framework for Compromise Settlements and Technical Write-offs”.
Banks now have the option of recovering loans through the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code. The compromise settlement framework may be useful in settling relatively small loans. The framework gives a bit of flexibility. But some bank unions have termed it a detrimental step that can compromise the integrity of the banking system.
What are the key aspects of RBI’s Framework for Compromise Settlements and Technical Write-offs?
According to the framework, regulated entities are expected to put in place board-approved policies for making compromise settlements with debtors as well as for technical write-offs.
Compromise settlement would mean a negotiated arrangement with the borrower to settle the claims of the lender in full, which may lead to a sacrifice of some amount due from the borrower. For the borrowers benefiting from the compromise settlement, there would be a cooling period as determined by the boards of the lenders before fresh lending can be made to such entities.
The technical write-offs would mean non-performing outstanding loans at the borrower’s account level and those have been written off by the lender for accounting purposes.
Respective boards are expected to give specific guidance. They are also expected to put in place an accountability framework for the staff dealing with such cases. An official who was involved in sanctioning the loan as an individual or as a member of a committee will not be part of this process.
Settlement for wilful defaulters will require board approval in all cases.
What are the bank’s concerns with RBI’s Framework for Compromise Settlements and Technical Write-offs?
Seeks clarification: Banks seek clarification on lending to accounts that are classified as wilful defaulters or fraud.
Options of restructuring: Banks make a large number of lending decisions on an ongoing basis and some may go wrong even in the best of circumstances. In the case of businesses, things could be negative because of a variety of factors, including unexpected changes in the macroeconomic environment, affecting the repaying capacity of borrowers. Banks often restructure the terms of loans in such cases.
What should be done?
Focus on lending standards: Lending standards are critical for preserving banking-sector stability. So, the banks must constantly monitor loan accounts and report the true picture to all stakeholders.
Avoid ever-greening of loans: The RBI has found innovative ways used by banks to conceal stress. Banks are also said to be using new methods of ever-greening. Such practices tend to undermine the integrity and stability of the banking system and should be avoided.
The banks should proceed with wilful defaulters or fraud with care and transparency. Lenders must use all avenues made available to them for recovering as much as possible from non-performing accounts.
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