‘2017 may be among top 3 hottest years’ 

‘2017 may be among top 3 hottest years’ 

Context

The year 2017 will likely be among the three warmest years on global record, according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).

U.N. agency warns of long-term trend

• The first 11 months of 2017 were the third warmest on record, behind 2016 and 2015, with much-warmer-than-average conditions engulfing much of the world’s land and ocean surfaces, researchers said.
• Arctic and Antarctic sea ice coverage remain at near record lows.
• 2017 may also be the warmest year without an El Nino — a climate phenomenon that causes global temperatures to shoot up.

ECMWF

Data from NASA and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows that the past meteorological year (December 2016 to November 2017) is the second warmest on record.

Socio-economic impact

Along with rising temperatures, we are seeing more extreme weather with huge socio-economic impacts

Combining Datasets

WMO will combine datasets from U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), and the Met Office Hadley Centre and Climatic Research Unit in the U.K. for a consolidated temperature ranking for 2017.

Varying rankings

According to NOAA, the month of November was the fifth warmest on record, whilst NASA and ECMWF Copernicus Climate Change Service both said it was the third warmest.

But warmer than average

During November 2017, warmer-than-average temperatures dominated across much of the world’s land and ocean surfaces, with the most notable temperature departures from average across the Northern Hemisphere

2 degrees variation

Parts of the western contiguous U.S., northern Canada, northern and western Alaska, western Asia and far eastern Russia had temperature departures from average that were 2.0 degrees Celsius or greater, according to NOAA.

Rapid Change in temperatures: Algorithm disqualifies itself

• As an indication of swift regional climate change in and near the Arctic, the average temperature observed at the weather station has now changed so rapidly that it triggered an algorithm designed to detect artificial changes in a station’s instrumentation or environment and disqualified itself from the NCEI Alaskan temperature analysis
• The omission was noticed by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), which realised that data from Reykjavik, Alaska had been missing for all of 2017 and the last few months of 2016.