9 PM UPSC Current Affairs Articles 18th January, 2025

Mains Oriented Articles

GS PAPER - 1

Deciphering the Script of the Indus Valley Civilisation

Source: This post on Deciphering the Script of the Indus Valley Civilisation has been created based on article “To fix economy, boost consumption” published in The Hindu on 18th January 2025.

UPSC Syllabus topic: GS Paper 1- Indian History

Context: This article explores the complexities and challenges surrounding the decipherment of the Indus Valley Civilisation (IVC) script.

What is the significance of the recent announcement by Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister?

• Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M.K. Stalin announced a $1-million prize for deciphering the script of the Indus Valley Civilisation (IVC).
• This initiative aims to revive interest in the IVC script and was made as part of the centenary celebrations of its discovery, first published by John Marshall, then chief of the Archaeological Survey of India, in September 1924.

What is the Indus Valley Civilisation?

• The IVC, also called the Harappan Civilisation, flourished during the Bronze Age (3000–1500 BCE) across 1.5 million square kilometers, covering parts of present-day India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan.
• It is known for its urban development, it was as sophisticated as Mesopotamian, Egyptian, and Chinese civilisations.

Why is deciphering the Indus script important?

• While the IVC has yielded numerous seals, tablets, and archaeological artifacts, the decipherment of its script remains unresolved.
• This is essential to understanding the civilisation’s literacy, language, and culture.

What are the main debates surrounding the script?

• Western Scholars’ Theory: About two decades ago, some scholars argued that the IVC was not a literate society, suggesting its symbols do not qualify as a full-fledged script.
• Proto-Dravidian Theory: Another school of thought claims the script could be “proto-Dravidian,” “non-Aryan,” or “pre-Aryan.” This aligns with Tamil Nadu’s interest in promoting research, linking the script to early Tamil roots.

What steps has Tamil Nadu taken to study the script?

The Tamil Nadu government supports research on Indus signs and graffiti, alongside documenting and digitizing Tamil Nadu’s graffiti and Tamil-Brāhmī-inscribed potsherds.

What challenges do researchers face in deciphering the script?

1. Limited Access to Data: The database of Indus seals is not fully available in the public domain.
2. Contextual Understanding: Providing proper context for the artifacts is essential for accurate interpretation.
3. Political Interference: Intellectual pursuits should remain unbiased, and unaffected by political or ideological influences.

How can South Asia contribute to deciphering the Indus script?

• Collaboration among South Asian countries—India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh—could significantly aid in unravelling the script.
• Political differences should not hinder such efforts, as they are critical for global historical understanding.

Why is unbiased research crucial for this initiative?

• The study’s findings may challenge established narratives, which necessitates free and interference-free intellectual exploration.
• Failure to ensure this could lead to missed opportunities in understanding the IVC.

GS PAPER - 2

China’s Population Decline

Source: This post on China’s Population Decline has been created based on article “China’s population declines for third consecutive year, straining economy” published in The Hindu on 18th January 2025.

UPSC Syllabus topic: GS Paper 2- Issues Relating to Development and Management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.

Context: This article highlights the continued decline in China’s population for the third consecutive year, marking a significant demographic challenge for the world’s second-most populous nation. The population was reported at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, representing a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year. The article examines the causes, implications, and broader regional and global trends related to declining birth rates and population shifts.

What is the current population of China?

• At the end of 2024, China’s population stood at 408 billion, marking a decline of 1.39 million compared to the previous year.
• This is not a new trend for China. This is the third consecutive year of population decline. China first recorded a population drop in 2023.
• The decline aligns with global trends, especially in East Asia. Countries like Japan and South Korea have also seen significant drops in birth rates.

What are the main reasons for the declining birth rate?

• Rising living costs: Young people are delaying or avoiding marriage and childbirth.
• Focus on careers and education: Higher education and career aspirations often take precedence.
• Longevity: While people are living longer, it does not offset the low birth rates.

Does China face unique challenges due to its demographics?

• Yes, several unique factors exacerbate the issue:
  • Lopsided sex ratio: There are 34 men for every 100 women, although independent estimates suggest the imbalance may be worse.
  • Minimal immigration: Unlike some countries, China allows very limited immigration, reducing the possibility of population stabilization through migration.

What are the broader implications of population decline for China?

• The decline poses severe challenges, including:
  • Ageing population: A growing number of elderly people.
  • Shrinking workforce: Fewer working-age individuals to sustain economic growth.
  • Economic strain: Pressure on consumer markets and social support systems.
  • Social instability: A significant surplus of unmarried men could lead to societal challenges.

Has India surpassed China in population size?

• Yes, in 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous nation.
• With continued low birth rates and minimal immigration, China faces a diminishing workforce and an increasing dependency ratio, threatening its economic stability and growth.

Delays in the India-EU Free Trade Agreement

Source: The post delays in the India-EU Free Trade Agreement has been created, based on the article “DIFFERING ASPIRATIONS” published in “Business Standard” on 18th January 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- International Relations-Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

Context: The article discusses delays in the India-EU Free Trade Agreement due to differing priorities on tariffs, sustainability, and intellectual property. It highlights past negotiation challenges, ongoing hurdles like EU regulations, and the need for balanced commitments to boost trade relations.

For detailed information on Rules of origin delay FTA tariff discussions with EU read this article here

What is the India-EU FTA and its current status?

1. The India-EU Free Trade Agreement aims to enhance trade between the two regions.
2. Negotiations resumed after an 18-year gap but remain delayed despite nine rounds of talks. The next round is scheduled for March 2025 in Brussels.
3. Differences persist on tariff elimination, sustainability, and intellectual property rights.
4. The EU demands tariff cuts on 95% of exports, while India agrees to only 90%.
5. In 2023-24, the EU accounted for 17.4% of India’s goods exports ($75.9 billion) and 9% of imports ($61.5 billion), making it India’s largest trading partner.

Why are negotiations delayed?

1. Differing Tariff Aspirations:

• The EU seeks tariff elimination on 95% of its exports, including agricultural products and automobiles.
• India is open to reducing tariffs on only 90% of its market and is hesitant on bulk agricultural products.

2. Sustainability and Labour Standards:

• The EU’s regulations like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and deforestation laws create barriers for Indian exports.
• India seeks a transition period, citing the UN principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibility (CBDR-RC).

3. Intellectual Property and Investor Disputes:

• The EU demands stronger intellectual property protections.
• India’s dispute settlement mechanism requires investors to exhaust local remedies before international arbitration, causing delays.

For detailed information on EFTA-India Relations read this article here

What Could Improve India-EU FTA Negotiations?

1. Balanced Commitments: Both sides need to recalibrate goals, addressing India’s concerns on tariffs and the EU’s demands for sustainability and labour standards.
2. Transition Period: India seeks time to adapt to EU regulations like the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), as per the UN’s Common but Differentiated Responsibility principle.
3. Focus on Market Access: Resolving differences on automobiles, wines, and sensitive agricultural products could ease tensions.
4. Enhanced Political Engagement: Ministerial-level discussions should prioritize bridging gaps, given the EU accounts for 17.4% of India’s exports ($75.9 billion).

Conclusion

Despite challenges, finalizing the India-EU FTA can boost trade relations significantly. However, differences in tariffs, sustainability, and intellectual property laws remain key hurdles.

Question for practice:

Examine the key factors delaying the finalization of the India-EU Free Trade Agreement and suggest measures to overcome them.

New Obesity Definition and Diagnosis for India

Source: The post New Obesity Definition and Diagnosis for India has been created, based on the article “New definition for obesity? What a new Lancet commission has proposed to replace BMI” published in “Indian Express” on 17th January 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper2- Governance-Issues relating to development and management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health

Context: The article discusses a new definition and method for diagnosing obesity proposed by The Lancet Commission. It moves beyond BMI and includes other measurements to assess excess body fat and related health risks. The approach also considers specific needs for Indian populations.

For detailed information on Lancet study on Global Obesity rates read this article here

What is the new definition of obesity?

1. The Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology Commission, composed of 58 experts, has proposed a new definition of obesity that goes beyond the Body Mass Index (BMI).
2. This definition includes additional measures like waist circumference and muscle mass assessments to provide a more accurate diagnosis of obesity.
3. The traditional BMI cutoffs have proven inadequate because they could misclassify the health status of individuals with different body compositions. For instance, people with high muscle mass might be categorized as obese under BMI metrics, even if they are healthy.

What Does the New Definition Include?

1. Preclinical Obesity: Identified as excess body fat without associated illnesses. It may or may not progress to clinical obesity. For example, some Indians with a BMI under 30 may have abdominal fat affecting organ function.
2. Clinical Obesity: Defined as a chronic illness that alters organ functions and leads to life-altering or life-threatening complications.
3. Measurements Used: BMI is supplemented with waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, or waist-to-height ratio. Two of these measures are recommended for accuracy.
4. Advanced Diagnostics: Methods like DEXA scans directly measure body fat for precise assessments.

How Will Obesity Be Treated Under the New Guidelines?

1. Treatment strategies for Preclinical Obesity focus on preventing disease progression through lifestyle changes and regular monitoring.
2. Clinical Obesity requires personalized, evidence-based treatments, potentially including new medications or surgeries, depending on the severity of symptoms and health conditions.

How Are Indians Specifically Addressed?

1. Lower BMI Cutoffs: Indian guidelines define overweight at BMI 23–24.9 and obesity at BMI over 25 due to higher health risks at lower BMI compared to Western populations.
2. Higher Body Fat Percentage: Indians have higher central obesity, making them prone to diabetes, hypertension, and heart diseases even at lower BMI levels.
3. Stage-Based Classification: Obesity is classified into Stage 1 (no significant symptoms) and Stage 2 (symptoms affecting daily life or comorbidities).
4. Familiarity with BMI: BMI remains the entry point for diagnosis in India for easier implementation.
5. Expert Insight: Expert highlighted Indians’ unique risks, linking obesity to chronic conditions despite lean appearances.

For detailed information on Obesity in India read this article here

Question for practice:

Examine how the new definition of obesity proposed by The Lancet Commission addresses the specific health risks and needs of Indian populations.

GS PAPER - 3

Current state of India’s economic growth

Source: This post on Current state of India’s economic growth has been created based on article “‘To fix economy, boost consumption’ ” published in The Hindu on 18th January 2025.

UPSC Syllabus topic: GS Paper 3- Indian Economy

Context: This article highlights the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) assessment of India’s economic challenges and potential strategies to address slowing growth. It underscores the need to stimulate consumption and rekindle private sector investment amid persistent inflationary pressures and an uncertain global economic environment.

What is the current state of India’s economic growth?

India’s economic growth is slowing, with private capital expenditure (capex) showing no visible signs of revival and government capex declining.

What are the RBI officials’ suggestions for reviving growth?

• Senior Reserve Bank of India (RBI) officials suggest boosting consumption as a means to revive the economy.
• They emphasize rekindling private sector investment, creating mass consumer demand, and triggering an investment boom.
• Investment and manufacturing are identified as the primary drags on economic growth.

What role does food inflation play in the current scenario?

• Food inflation remains persistently high, even though December recorded a 5.22% inflation rate due to the seasonal availability of fruits and vegetables.
• Several key food products are experiencing double-digit inflation, which impacts disposable incomes and consumer demand.

What challenges are posed by food inflation?

• High food inflation persists despite seasonal easing.
• Rising rural wages and increasing corporate salaries could lead to second-order effects, requiring careful monitoring.

What is the impact on the middle class?

The urban middle class is looking for relief from high food prices to improve their disposable incomes, which could enhance consumption and support economic growth.

How is private consumption performing?

• Private final consumption is a bright spot in the economy, driven by e-commerce and quick commerce (q-commerce).
• Encouraging competition in these sectors is seen as more beneficial than imposing restrictions.

What are the inflation concerns and monetary policy challenges?

• Disinflation may bring some relief to households, but inflation risks remain due to uncertainties, such as geopolitical issues.
• The future path of interest rates is uncertain, posing challenges to monetary policy.

India’s Real Growth Rate and Forecast

Source: This post on India’s Real Growth Rate and Forecast has been created based on article “India’s real growth rate and the forecast” published in The Hindu on 18th January 2025.

UPSC Syllabus topic: GS Paper 3- Indian Economy

Context: This article evaluates India’s economic performance in 2024-25 and provides projections for its growth trajectory over the next five years. It highlights the country’s real and nominal GDP growth, government expenditure, and long-term development prospects.

What is the real and nominal GDP growth for 2024-25?

• The First Advance Estimates (FAE) of National Accounts for 2024-25 indicate:
  • Real GDP growth: 4%
  • Nominal GDP growth: 7%
• These figures are below the Reserve Bank of India’s revised estimates of:
  • Real GDP growth: 6%
  • Nominal GDP growth: 5%, as per the 2024-25 Union Budget.

How has GDP growth performed over the fiscal year?

• Real GDP growth in 2024-25 consists of:
  • 6% growth in the first half.
  • 7% growth in the second half.
• The 2024-25 growth of 4% is significantly lower than the previous year’s 8.2%.
• Manufacturing sector growth dropped sharply from 9% in 2023-24 to 5.3% in 2024-25.
• Government investment growth slowed, remaining negative at -12.3% after eight months of the fiscal year.
• Gross Fixed Capital Formation is expected to remain stable at 4% of GDP.
• Incremental Capital Output Ratio (ICOR) is assumed to be 1, suggesting a realistic 6.5% real GDP growth.

What role will domestic demand and government investment play?

• Global economic conditions are unlikely to change significantly, with India relying primarily on domestic demand.
• The Government of India must focus on accelerated capital expenditure, ensuring at least 20% growth over revised estimates for 2024-25.

What challenges does lower nominal GDP growth pose? What caused the dip in capital expenditure?

• A nominal GDP growth of 7% (vs. budgeted 10.5%) could impact the budgeted Gross Tax Revenue (GTR) of ₹38.4 lakh crore.
• However, GTR growth for the first eight months stood at 7%, indicating a potential buoyancy of 1.1, reducing the risk of a revenue shortfall.
• As of the first eight months, capital expenditure reached only ₹5.14 lakh crore, 2% of the budget target.
• Accelerated spending in the remaining four months may still fall short of the ₹11.1 lakh crore target, dampening overall growth.

What is India’s growth potential over the next five years?

• Real GDP growth is projected at 5%, with 4% IPD-based inflation, yielding 10.5%-11% nominal GDP growth annually.
• Growth could reach 7% in favourable global conditions with significant contributions from net exports.

Can India achieve developed country status?

• Sustained real growth of 5%, nominal growth of 10.5% -11 %, and an average annual exchange rate depreciation of 2.5% enable India to achieve developed country status within 25 years.
• However, growth must initially exceed 5% to compensate for the increasing base size.

How should 2024-25 growth be viewed?

• The 4% growth in 2024-25 aligns with India’s potential growth rate of 6.5%.
• The 2% growth in 2023-24 was an exception, not a trend.
• Sustained government capital expenditure and effective policy design will be critical for achieving consistent growth.

ISRO’s SpaDeX mission

Source: The post ISRO’s SpaDeX mission has been created, based on the article “How the Sun played a role in SpaDex success” published in “Indian Express” on 18th January 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 3-Science and Technology- developments and their applications and effects in everyday life.

Context: The article discusses India’s successful satellite docking under ISRO’s SpaDeX mission, making it the fourth country to achieve this. It highlights the challenges of docking during solar activity and emphasizes the need for better space weather forecasting for future missions.

For detailed information on SpaDeX Mission Explaination read this article here

What is the SpaDeX Mission?

1. SpaDeX (Space Docking Experiment) is ISRO’s first satellite docking mission.
2. It involved two satellites: SDX01 (Chaser) and SDX02 (Target), launched on December 30, 2024, into a low-Earth circular orbit.
3. The satellites were initially separated by 20 km. The Chaser satellite gradually approached the Target, reducing the distance to 5 km, 1.5 km, 500 m, 225 m, 15 m, and finally 3 m before docking.
4. India became the fourth country to achieve satellite docking, after the US, Russia, and China.
5. Docking is vital for future missions like Chandrayaan-4 and the Bharatiya Antariksha Station.

What role did solar activity play in the mission?

1. Solar activity directly impacts space missions by interfering with sensors and electronic control systems.
2. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and high-speed solar wind streams during strong solar activity cause positional errors and communication loss.
3. Docking requires precise alignment and negligible relative velocity, which is challenging during solar maximum.
4. The mission took place during solar cycle 25, which has been marked by strong solar activity.
5. Surprisingly, during the days leading up to the docking, the Sun displayed fewer sunspots and magnetic disturbances, enabling smooth operations.
6. This calm solar period contributed to India’s successful docking of satellites under SpaDeX.

Why is Space Weather Forecasting Important?

1. Just as Earth weather forecasts are crucial for safety and planning, space weather forecasts are essential for successful space missions.
2. Accurate predictions help in planning critical operations like docking, especially during periods of high solar activity.
3. The SpaDeX mission highlights the importance of investments in space weather prediction during solar maximum phases.

Question for practice:

Discuss the significance of space weather forecasting in the success of ISRO’s SpaDeX mission.

How to Boost Investment and Economic Growth

Source: The post How to Boost Investment and Economic Growth has been created, based on the article “Why the budget must prioritise incentives, not just resources” published in “Indian Express” on 18th January 2025

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper3- Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilisation, of resources, growth, development

Context: The article highlights the need for better-targeted government spending, public investment, tax reforms, and incentives to boost corporate and private investment. It emphasizes simplifying regulations, improving food supply chains, and addressing demand constraints to drive sustainable economic growth.

For detailed information on Addressing Key Challenges to Boost India’s Growth read this article here

What is the Current State of Government Spending?

1. As of November, the central government spent only 46.2% of its capital expenditure target, compared to 58.5% in the same period last year.
2. Revenue expenditure increased by about 1%, but this did not offset the slowdown in capital spending.
3. States utilized only Rs 0.88 trillion of the Rs 1.5 trillion allocated for capital expenditure.
4. The slowdown in public investment has impacted economic growth, despite revenue spending being maintained.

How Does Government Spending Affect the Economy?

1. Government spending impacts economic growth by influencing public and private investment.
2. A decrease in public investment has contributed to economic slowdowns, evidenced by a corresponding slowdown in economic growth following reductions in public spending.
3. Maintaining or increasing public investment can stimulate the economy. For instance, the focus on quality spending and targeted public investment is crucial for stimulating economic activities and supporting overall economic growth.

What are the Challenges with Corporate and Private Investment?

1. Low Corporate Investment: Despite tax cuts, corporate investment has not increased significantly.
2. Declining Private Fixed Capital Formation: It peaked at 27.5% of GDP in 2007-08 but averaged only 21.5% from 2015-21.
3. High Private Savings, Low Investment: Private corporate savings rose from 1% of GDP (pre-1990s) to 10.7% after 2005-06, yet investments remain subdued.
4. Increased Non-Business Income: The share of corporate non-business income has quadrupled, indicating underutilized resources.

What Should be Done to Stimulate Economic Growth?

1. Enhance Public Investment: The slowdown in economic growth correlates with reduced public investment. Prioritizing high-quality public investment can serve as an effective economic stimulus.
2. Reform Tax Policies: Although corporate tax cuts haven’t significantly boosted investment, modifying tax incentives to promote investment over mere tax reductions could be more effective. For instance, introducing a tax on non-business income balanced by an investment tax credit could stimulate corporate investment.
3. Utilize Agricultural Reforms: Encouraging states to implement agricultural marketing reforms and allowing direct farm gate sales have proven beneficial. These measures help diversify production and increase farmers’ profits, contributing to economic stability and growth.
4. Simplify Regulations: Continuous efforts to simplify regulations at all government levels are necessary. Despite the removal of numerous outdated laws, businesses still face bureaucratic challenges that hinder their operation and growth.

Question for practice:

What measures can be taken to stimulate economic growth, considering the challenges with government spending and private investment?

Prelims Oriented Articles (Factly)

Pay Commission

News: The Union Government has announced the constitution of the 8th Pay Commission. 

About Pay Commission 

• A Pay Commission decides the salary and compensation of Central government employees and allowances of pensioners. 
• It is set up by the Department of Expenditure, Union Ministry of Finance.  
• It is generally set up every 10 years by the central government. 
• The commission recommends salary structure and formulas for revising dearness allowance and dearness relief for central government employees and pensioners to offset the impact of inflation. 
  • These recommendations are not binding on the central government. 
• It consults with central and state governments, along with other stakeholders, before recommending salary structures, benefits, and allowances for government employees.
• Seven pay commissions have been set up since 1947.  
  • The last one was constituted in 2014 and implemented in 2016. 

Bharat Ranbhoomi Darshan

News: On the 77th Army Day (15th January), Defence Minister launched the “Bharat Ranbhoomi Darshan” website and app. 

About Bharat Ranbhoomi Darshan 

• The Bharat Ranbhoomi Darshan website will be a one-stop destination for information about significant battlefields and border areas in India, featuring virtual tours and historical narratives and interactive content. 
• The initiative has been launched by the Ministry of Defence in collaboration with the Ministry of Tourism. 
• The initiative aims to promote connectivity, boost tourism and socio-economic development in border regions. 
• The Indian Army, along with Ministry of Tourism, has shortlisted sites alongside the country’s border that have witnessed military action in the past for battlefield tourism. 
  • These sites include Galwan, Doklam, Kibithoo and Bum La Pass and sites along the Line of Control (LoC) and Line of Actual Control (LAC). 

Siachen Glacier

News: A private telecom service provider has deployed 4G and 5G connectivity services to Siachen Glacier. 

About Siachen Glacier 

• Siachen Glacier is a piedmont glacier located in the Karakoram Range of the Himalayas. 
  • It lies between Saltoro Ridge to the west and the main Karakoram range to the east. 
• It is the world’s second longest non-polar glacier, after Fedchenko Glacier in Tajikistan. 
• Siachen glacier is also known as the Third Pole as it contains more fresh water than is found anywhere else on Earth except for the polar ice caps. 
• It is the major source of the Nubra River, a major tributary of the Shyok River. 
• The Siachen Glacier is considered the world’s highest battleground as India and Pakistan have fought for control of the Siachen Glacier. 
  • In 1984, India took control of the glaciers under Operation Meghdoot. 
• Studies suggest an increased rate of melting of Siachen Glacier in recent times due to climate change, heavy military presence, dumping of large amount of non-biodegradable wastes.