Source: This post on China’s Population Decline has been created based on article “China’s population declines for third consecutive year, straining economy” published in The Hindu on 18th January 2025.
UPSC Syllabus topic: GS Paper 2- Issues Relating to Development and Management of Social Sector/Services relating to Health, Education, Human Resources.
Context: This article highlights the continued decline in China’s population for the third consecutive year, marking a significant demographic challenge for the world’s second-most populous nation. The population was reported at 1.408 billion at the end of 2024, representing a decline of 1.39 million from the previous year. The article examines the causes, implications, and broader regional and global trends related to declining birth rates and population shifts.
What is the current population of China?
- At the end of 2024, China’s population stood at 408 billion, marking a decline of 1.39 million compared to the previous year.
- This is not a new trend for China. This is the third consecutive year of population decline. China first recorded a population drop in 2023.
- The decline aligns with global trends, especially in East Asia. Countries like Japan and South Korea have also seen significant drops in birth rates.
What are the main reasons for the declining birth rate?
- Rising living costs: Young people are delaying or avoiding marriage and childbirth.
- Focus on careers and education: Higher education and career aspirations often take precedence.
- Longevity: While people are living longer, it does not offset the low birth rates.
Does China face unique challenges due to its demographics?
- Yes, several unique factors exacerbate the issue:
- Lopsided sex ratio: There are 34 men for every 100 women, although independent estimates suggest the imbalance may be worse.
- Minimal immigration: Unlike some countries, China allows very limited immigration, reducing the possibility of population stabilization through migration.
What are the broader implications of population decline for China?
- The decline poses severe challenges, including:
- Ageing population: A growing number of elderly people.
- Shrinking workforce: Fewer working-age individuals to sustain economic growth.
- Economic strain: Pressure on consumer markets and social support systems.
- Social instability: A significant surplus of unmarried men could lead to societal challenges.
Has India surpassed China in population size?
- Yes, in 2023, India overtook China as the world’s most populous nation.
- With continued low birth rates and minimal immigration, China faces a diminishing workforce and an increasing dependency ratio, threatening its economic stability and growth.
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