Retribution for the south, accolade for the north

Source: The post is based on the article “Retribution for the south, accolade for the north” published in “The Hindu” on 5th October 2023.

Syllabus: GS2- polity- Delimitation; issues and challenges pertaining to the federal structure

News: The article discusses how India’s political and financial systems, which are based on population size, put southern states at a disadvantage due to controlled population growth. At the same time, they favor northern states with larger populations in terms of political representation and financial allocations, leading to a policy dilemma.

How does population size affect political representation?

Lok Sabha Seats and Article 81: Article 81 of the Indian Constitution says that Lok Sabha seats should be allocated based on population size, aiming for equal representation across constituencies.

Decisions Based on Old Census: Historically, seats were distributed based on the 1971 Census data, which, through amendments like the 42nd in 1976 and the 84th in 2001, was intended to be utilized until at least the first census after 2026.

Population Control Consequences: Southern states in India, having effectively controlled their populations, risk losing 23 seats if 2023 population projections are applied, while northern states might gain 37.

Inequality in Representation: MPs from northern states represent more people (around 18 lakh) compared to those from southern states (around 16 lakh). However, interestingly, electing an MP requires only about 12 lakh voters in both regions.

What happens when population control is penalized?

Losing Representation: The five southern states (Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Telangana) will witness a decrease of 23 seats, while the Hindi-speaking northern states will gain 37 seats. Consequently, the proportion of political representation for the northern states will increase by 6.81%, while that of the southern states will decline by 4.24%.

Decreased Fiscal Share: These states could also get a smaller piece of the Union government’s tax revenue. The share of five southern states dropped from 21.1% to 15.8% from 2000-05 to 2021-26.

Political Incentive: Penalizing population control by reducing representation and financial allocations might discourage states from prioritizing such initiatives in the future.

Societal Impact: States which successfully implemented population control through social development efforts, like the southern states, might face unintended negative consequences, altering their societal and economic development trajectories.

Future Policy Dilemma: This situation creates a policy challenge, potentially impacting the federal structure and solidarity by possibly inciting regional disparities and discontent among states.

What should be done?

Maintain Seat Freeze: It’s essential to persist with the freeze on Lok Sabha seat distribution, as per the 1971 Census figures, until all states stabilize their populations, to ensure fair representation and avoid penalizing southern states, like Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh.

Incentive for Population Control: Encourage population management in all states by ensuring policies don’t penalize those, like Kerala or Tamil Nadu, which have effectively controlled their populations through both family planning and social development.

Fair Fiscal Distribution: Reconsider fiscal distribution formulas to ensure that states are not financially penalized for controlling their populations. For instance, protecting the declining share, such as the drop from 21.1% to 15.8% in five southern states from 2000-05 to 2021-26, in Union government’s tax revenue is pivotal.

Promote Equitable Representation: Implement systems that ensure more equal representation per elector across both northern and southern states, maintaining the democratic principle of “one person, one vote.”

Social and Economic Development: Encourage policies that promote balanced social and economic development in all states, ensuring uniform progression and stability across India.