Context:
- The attack by the Taliban gunmen at the Intercontinental Hotel in Kabul depicts the deteriorating security environment in Afghanistan.
- The siege at the hotel lasted more than 12 hours and claimed 22 victims, including 14 foreigners, before the gunmen were neutralised.
What is the present day scenario of Afghanistan?
- Afghanistan is under siege, with 21 international terrorist groups operating in this country and factories producing suicide bombers.
- Without U.S. support, the Afghan national army would not last more than six months and the government would collapse.
- Over the last 16 years, civilian casualties have mounted to 31,000, increasing progressively to over 4,000 a year.
- The Afghan security forces are losing nearly 7,000 men a year.
Assistance provided to Afghanistan:
- The U.S. has contributed significant blood and treasure, spending over a trillion dollar and losing more than 2,400 lives in pursuing the longest war in its history.
- Of this amount, about $120 billion has been spent on reconstruction and development.
- India is also a significant partner, having spent over $2 billion on humanitarian assistance, infrastructure building and human resource development, with an additional billion dollars committed.
- U.S. President Donald Trump is determined to bring about a change in American policy and while authorising a limited increase in U.S. troop presence by 4,000 soldiers, has also been critical of Pakistan.
Why is the biggest looming threat?
- After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, there was an international consensus on rebuilding Afghanistan.
- It was ensured that it should not become a source of regional and global instability.
- That consensus has eroded over the last 16 years.
- Further, the Afghans who had returned in large numbers determined to reclaim their country and rebuild it are frustrated at the steady decline in both security and governance.
- The newly created Afghan institutions are unable to address the challenges without significant international support, both financial and material.
- However, with a breakdown in the international consensus, it may not be long before the slow fuse reaches ignition point and 2019 may well become the critical year.
