Endgame in Syria 

Endgame in Syria 

Context

Unless the peace dividend is visible soon, regression to anarchy cannot be ruled out

Backdrop: Flurry of political activity 

Ceasefire: between government-allied forces and rebel groups

• Following the defeat of the Islamic State (IS) at Abu Kamal, its last Syrian redoubt, military activities are being framed by the tenuous ceasefire between government-allied forces and motley rebel groups mostly confined to four de-escalation zones

Hezbollah: has the upper hand

• Backed by support from the Russian Air Force, Iranian experts and fighters from Hezbollah militia of Lebanon, the former have an upper hand

GCC

• The rebels, with the solitary exception of Kurdish forces, have been losing ground, with their foreign patrons, mainly the U.S. and the Gulf Cooperation Council states, becoming more equivocal

Astana Process

• The antagonists have been inconclusively engaged in the Astana Process, sponsored and guaranteed by Russia, Iran and Turkey, and the U.N.-sponsored Geneva Peace Talks.

Russia’s role

• Russian President has pressed the military advantage in Syria to recently launch the search for a lasting political solution

Summit at Sochi

• His summit with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad at Sochi, Russia, on November 20 produced the broad outlines of a peace process even as the Syrian leader insisted on foreign non-interference

Syrian Peace Congress

• Following telephonic consultations with his U.S., Saudi, Egyptian and Israeli counterparts, Russian President held a tripartite summit on November 22 with the Presidents of Iran and Turkey
• They jointly announced the convening of a Syrian peace congress at Sochi to create a framework for national reconciliation

Saudi Initiative

• In tandem with the Russian initiatives, a Saudi–sponsored two-day meeting in Riyadh of over 140 Syrian rebels concluded with an agreement to field a unified delegation at the Geneva talks on November 28
• They reportedly dropped their long-standing demand for the removal of President Assad which could help break the stalemate at the talks.

Obstacles still remain

• The bloodletting and intense foreign involvement have created a bitter legacy to be overcome before meaningful negotiations can commence
• Entrenched foreign interests often pursue divergent objectives.
• For instance, while Turkey demands the ouster of Mr. Assad and regards the Kurdish militia as terrorists, Russia and Iran hold opposite stands.
• Even though Russia and the U.S. have vowed to obliterate the IS, they hold opposite positions on the continuation of Mr. Assad. Similarly, though Israel and Saudi Arabia have their well-known differences, they are both apprehensive about Iranian gains in the Levant
• Even as a need for a new Syrian Constitution is widely acknowledged, the prescriptions for a future polity range from a continuation of Ba’ath Arab nationalism (aka an Alawite-dominated military-security apparatus) to a Sunni Khilafat, and from a unitary republic to a loose confederation
• Any peace package would necessarily require the injection of huge funds for reconstruction. Unless the peace dividend is visible soon, regression to anarchy cannot be ruled out.

Whiff of optimism

• The best one can realistically hope for is a congruence of major players around the incipient(beginning to happen or develop) political process, and progressive withdrawal of foreign military presence and interests
• Ironically, The Syrian conflict will reach its endgame in the centenary year of the Sykes-Picot Agreement and the infamous Balfour Declaration. As they say, the more things change, the more they stay the same

A place for India

• By keeping a low profile during the conflict, India has earned wider acceptability across the Syrian social spectrum
• In normal times, the annual bilateral trade between the two countries was over half a billion dollars, with India enjoying a large trade surplus

Reconstruction

• In a post-conflict situation, India has a potential role in institution building and reconstruction. Among the possible initiatives to further our prospects could be extending an invitation to Syrian President for a return visit to India, holding a session of the joint commission and an Indian line of credit to finance our exports as well as projects and services