| Introduction: Contextual Introduction Body: Geopolitical and environmental implications of China’s proposed mega-dam on Brahmaputra. Conclusion: Way forward |
The ambitious plan to build a mega-hydropower dam across the Brahmaputra at the Great Bend region of the Medog county in the Tibetan Autonomous Region (TAR) in China has raised concerns for India.
Geopolitical Implications
- Strategic Power Projection: The proposed 60 GW mega-dam in the Great Bend of the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra) positions China as a dominant hydro-hegemon in the Himalayan region. Control over the river system strengthens China’s leverage over downstream nations—India, Bhutan, and Bangladesh.
- Water as a Geopolitical Tool: The dam could serve as a “water bomb” for downstream nations, with China having the ability to control water flow. This perception heightens India’s concerns about water security and intensifies strategic posturing.
- Lack of Legal Framework: The absence of a comprehensive treaty between China and India or among Brahmaputra riparian states leaves disputes unresolved. The lack of adherence to the UN Convention on Non-Navigational Uses of International Watercourses (2014) further undermines cooperative governance.
- India’s Response: India plans its largest dam project in Upper Siang, which could escalate the dam-building race in the basin. This mirrors China’s approach but risks environmental and social fallout, potentially straining regional cooperation.
- Implications for Bangladesh and Bhutan: Bangladesh, being the lowermost riparian country, relies heavily on the Brahmaputra for agriculture and livelihoods. Disruptions to water flow threaten its food and water security. Bhutan’s smaller-scale hydropower projects, while less impactful, are still tied to the basin’s shared dynamics and face downstream scrutiny.
Environmental Implications
- Impact on Ecosystems: The damming of the Yarlung Zangbo disrupts the natural flow of the Brahmaputra, affecting agro-pastoral systems, wetlands, and biodiversity across the Himalayan bioregion.
- Increased Disaster Risks: Large dams in a seismically active region like the Himalayas exacerbate the risks of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and earthquakes. The 1950 Medog Earthquake serves as a historical warning of catastrophic impacts on riparian communities.
- Hydrological Alterations: Blocking perennial flows to operate the mega-dam could result in lower surface water availability, disrupting agricultural cycles in India and Bangladesh. It may also weaken groundwater recharge systems vital for sustainable water management.
- Loss of Traditional Knowledge: Rapid, large-scale hydraulic interventions erode traditional knowledge systems that have helped communities adapt to the river’s seasonal dynamics, making them more vulnerable to unpredictable changes.
Conclusion
Balancing strategic priorities with ecological preservation and community welfare can ensure that the Brahmaputra remains a source of sustenance and cooperation, rather than a site of contention.
