Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) is a group consisting of 8 Asian countries, formed in 2001 to work on regional security, terrorism and reduction of border troops. It has helped the Central Asian countries resolve some of its boundary disputes. Iran and Belarus are on the path of becoming full members of SCO soon.
India’s full membership into SCO was premised on the prime position of Russia, a key ally of India, in SCO. India trusted Russia to be able to help advance India’s ‘Connect Central Asia Policy’. In past, India has used the platform sidelines to discuss differences with other member nations. For example:
- Indian PM Modi held a bilateral meeting with former Pakistani Prime Minister in 2015 on SCO meeting sidelines.
- Foreign Minister S. Jaishanker negotiated a 5-point agreement with his Chinese counterpart on the side-lines of the 2020 Moscow conference.
However, the geopolitics of SCO has undergone changes, due to rise of China in regional geopolitics and in SCO. This has diminished the position of Russia within SCO. Consequently, SCO is also losing its shine. For example:
- The tensions between countries in SCO are deepening. There are serious conflicts between India and China, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan.
- SCO talks about regional security, but it took a direct deal between USA and Taliban to reshape the Afghan crisis. This reflects the inability to directly influence the regional security.
However, with the rising global size and stature of China, and deepening ties of Russia with China, the advantage that SCO held for India is diminishing. Russia needs China’s backing in the Ukraine war. Moreover, the boundary problems between Russia and China have been resolved. The closeness between Beijing and Moscow has made India unsure.
Therefore, India needs to be able to protect its own interests amidst the rapidly changing regional power. India should be able to manage its foreign policy by balancing SCO with QUAD membership, to hedge the risks and diversify the foreign policy.
The opportunity of chairing SCO in 2023, gives India the power to shape the regional dynamics. If India uses this opportunity to improve ties with Pakistan, it will dent the Russia-China-Pakistan axis, thus improving its position in SCO and Central Asia again.
