China’s ‘inevitable’ global dominance

News: A recent book titled “How China Sees India and the World.” explained how China is moving towards their global dominance.

What is the development of India-China relations?

Deng Xiaoping declared that there could not be an Asian Century without India and China growing together and playing a resurgent role.

During the visit of the Indian Prime Minister in 2003, a few important decisions were taken. a) The two countries agreed to seek an early political solution to the India–China border dispute, b) Regular negotiations at the level of Special Representatives of their respective leaders, and c) China recognized Sikkim as the State of India. (Earlier China continued to depict it [Sikkim] as an independent country).

In 2005, Chinese Premier’s visit to India, China arrived at a consensus on the following issues to balance India’s civil nuclear cooperation agreement with the U.S. These include,  a) Accepted China was not a threat to India and India was not a threat to China, b) There is enough space for simultaneous growth of both India and China in Asia, and c) Agreed India was an economic opportunity for China and vice versa.

Thus, India-China relations have acquired a global and strategic dimension.

What is the growth trajectory of China and India?

Till 2000s: India and China were roughly at the same economic level in 1978, with similar GDP and per capita income. Though China began to grow much faster thereafter, the gap between the two countries was not very significant even a decade later.

The 1991 Economic reforms and liberalisation policies in India expanded India’s political and economic profile.

After the 2000s: In the period 2003–2007, India’s growth rate accelerated while China’s began to slow down. This was the brief period when India’s diplomatic options multiplied.

In this period, India was able to leverage the advance of its relations with one major power to promote its relations with other major powers, thereby expanding its strategic space.

After the 2008 financial crisis: The asymmetry between the U.S. and China began to shrink but the asymmetry between India and China began to expand.

China has maintained the same rate of growth as India, but on a much larger base than India. This created an asymmetry of power between India and China.

What are the potential impacts of growth asymmetry between India and China?

1) China showing less sensitivity to India’s interests, 2) Increased economic and political penetration of the Chinese economy in India’s peripheral countries, 3) lower threshold of tolerance to closer relations between India and the U.S., For instance, China mentions the Quad as a constraining factor of China in the Indo-Pacific, 4) Indirectly pointing India should accept a diminished ranking compare to China. For instance, Chinese scholars often mentioning China’s economy was five times the size of India.

Overall, China at present considers that the U.S. is a declining power with its credibility being eroded. More importantly, the U.S.’s power to implement decisions has also diminished. Therefore, asserts the allies and partners of the U.S. cannot count on U.S. power to deter China.

Source: The post is based on an article “‘China’s ‘inevitable’ global dominance” published in The Hindu on 30^th May 2022.