Climate change for practical people

News: Due to lack of availability of data there is a reasonable chance that impact of climate change is not measured accurately and to confront the climate problem we need to think more strategically.

What is current scenario of climate change?

Climate scientists warn that an increase in the global average temperature of more than 1.5 degrees will trigger catastrophic events. The baseline is from 1850-1900. The rise in temperature for the world has been about 1 degree and for India it has been 0.7 degrees. But many practical people think that a change of about 1 degree is not that bad.

Why should India worry about climate change?

First, small rise in temperature cause disastrous changes. For example, long breaks in the monsoon and unseasonal rain. For example, July 2021 rainfall in Maharashtra killed over 100 people.

The frequency of cyclones in the Arabian Sea has gone up by about 50 per cent. In Kerala, there was no significant flood from 1924 till 2004. In the recent period, floods have been increased.

Second, knowledge of climate change is limited due to limited data and there may be mistakes in analysis. Even with the most powerful computers work on rough approximation.

Third, Climate models predict that the rise in temperature will have least impact in south India and more as we go north.

The aggregate amount of rain will go up by about 7 per cent for each 1 degree increase in temperature. This rain will come down to the earth on a smaller number of days, and there will be increase in dry spells within the monsoon months.

What are the challenges present in front of India?

One, there is need to think about the present variation of population density in India across locations with respect to climate change.

When climate change takes place, people will have to migrate. For example, coastal areas will experience rising sea levels and changing patterns of cyclones. Interior areas will suffer heat waves and altered rainfall patterns. These may result in economic slowdown worse than the Indian Covid lockdown of 2020.

Two, there will be challenges for human institutions. In India state capability are poor and perform poorly during pressures. For example, the Dutch dealt with the rising seas by building dykes and protecting their way of life.

What is the way forward?

First, the need is to focus on disaster relief and disaster risk resilience.

Second, volatile agricultural incomes call for financial sector development. For example, crop insurance and commodity derivatives trading.

Third, households which are over-weighted with immobile assets in the wrong places will experience destruction of wealth. It demands relocation. However, the problem is illiquid Indian land market. There are large transaction costs and delays.

Source: This post is based on the article “Climate change for practical people” published in Business Standard on 24th Jan 2022.