Climate report predicts hotter, rainier days

News: The first ever “Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region” report has been published by the Union Ministry of Earth Sciences(MoES). 

Facts:

• The report is based on the climate forecasting model developed at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM),Pune.

Key Highlights:

• Average surface air temperatures over India could rise by up to 4.4 degrees Celsius by 2100 as compared to the period between 1976 and 2005.
• Frequencies of future warm days and warm nights are projected to increase by 55% and 70% respectively relative to the reference period of 1976-2005. 
  • Summer heat waves over India are also projected to be three to four times higher by the end of the 21st century.
• Temperatures of the warmest day and the coldest night of the year have risen by around 0.63°C and 0.4°C in the recent 30-year period (1986-2015). 
  • These temperatures are projected to rise by some 4.7°C and 5.5°C respectively by 2100.
• Increase in the frequency of droughts, floods and cyclones in the past few decades.
  • Rise in intensity of tropical cyclones in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) by the end of the 21st century.
• Sea surface temperature over the Indian Ocean has risen by 1°C in the 64 years between 1951 and 2015 compared to the global average sea surface warming of 0.7°C.
  • By the end of the century, sea level is expected to rise by 30cm as compared to its level in the last two to three decades.
• Summer monsoon precipitation (June to September) over India has also declined by around 6% from 1951 to 2015 with notable decreases over the Indo-Gangetic Plains and the Western Ghats.