El-nino: Impact on food inflation in India

Source-This post on El-nino and its impact on India has been created based on the article “A receding El Niño could help ease food inflation” published in “Mint” on 13 February.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS paper 1- Geophysical Phenomena such as earthquakes, Tsunami, Volcanic activity, cyclone etc. GS paper 3- Indian Economy and issues relating to Planning, Mobilization of Resources, Growth, Development and Employment.

News: The article discusses about the likely impact of El-Nino on Indias food inflation.

What is El Niño and La-Nina phenomenon?

1) El Nino and La Nina are complex weather patterns resulting from variations in ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific Region. They are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.

2) El Nino is a climate pattern that describes the unusual warming of surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It is the “warm phase” of a larger phenomenon called the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It typically lasts 9 to 12 months.

3) La Nina, the “cool phase” of ENSO, is a pattern that describes the unusual cooling of the tropical eastern Pacific. LA Nina events may last between 1 to 3 years.

El Niño Effect on Monsoon in India?

1) Weakening of Monsoon Winds: During El Niño years, the trade winds across the Pacific Ocean gets weakened. This reduces their ability to push moisture-laden air towards the Indian subcontinent.
As a result, the monsoon winds over the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Sea weaken, leading to a decrease in the overall strength of the monsoon.

2) Shift in Rainfall Patterns: The regions that receive abundant rainfall during the monsoon season may experience below-average rainfall, whereas regions that usually receive less rainfall may receive more rainfall.

3) Delayed Onset and Early Withdrawal: It can delay the onset of the monsoon season in India.
Further,it can also lead to an early withdrawal of the monsoon, shortening the overall duration of the rainy season.

What are other factors that impact Indian monsoon?

1) Indian Ocean Dipole -This measures the difference in sea-surface temperatures on opposite sides of this ocean. The IOD has three phases such as Neutral, Positive and Negative IOD.
A positive IOD leads to greater monsoon rainfall and more active (above normal rainfall) monsoon days in the Indian sub-continent while a negative IOD leads to less rainfall and more monsoon break days (no rainfall)

2) Climate Change-This has also added to unpredictability of Indian monsoon.

Read More UPSC Topics-

What is the significance of receding El Niño for Indian Economy?

1) Boost to agriculture-Adequate rainfall will ensure healthy farm harvests, leading to enhanced food grain production.

2) Decline in food inflation-A bumper harvest would ensure that food prices are under control.

3) Strengthening Indian Rupee-Controlled food inflation would allow India’s central bank to control rupee’s internal value so that it does not lose its purchasing power.

El Niño is expected to ease in a few months. It is a big relief for Indian economy.