Fact-Checking The HDI Tally

Source: The post is based on the article “Fact-Checking The HDI Tally” published in The Times of India on 18^th October 2022.

Syllabus: GS 2 – Welfare schemes for vulnerable sections of the population by the Centre and States and the performance of these schemes.

Relevance: About the concerns associated with the Human Development Index, 2022.

News: The Human Development Index is the second most widely used indicator for measuring economic progress after national income statistics (GDP). India’s rank has not improved over the last two decades and declined by one place in 2022.

About Human Development Index-2022?

What are the challenges associated with the HDI-2022?

Calculating life expectancy at birth: The estimate used for India was cut by 3. 67 years (70. 9 years to 67. 2 years) from 2019 to 2021. The UN agency claims that this cut reflects Covid-related mortality but this has a few serious flaws. Such as,

a) It is a conceptual mistake to lower life expectancy at birth because of a virus that, according to evidence, only kills adults.

b) The UNDP did not explain its saying that Covid will be around in 20 years to impact today’s newborns with the same virulence as at its peak in 2020-21.

c) The UNDP adjusted India’s mortality rates for “excess deaths” from Covid as estimated by WHO. This is in addition to the adjustment routinely done on grounds that India’s data is underreported. But, India objected to WHO estimates in May 2022 by pointing out various flaws in their methodology – such as the use of media reports and the use of parameters like test positivity rate.

d) The UN’s reduction of 3. 67 years in India’s life expectancy is not justified even after including WHO’s flawed numbers. On the other hand, the cut in life expectancy for the US is 1. 94 years, UK 0. 98 years, Italy 0. 70 years, Brazil 2. 7 years – all substantially lower than for India.

This shows a series of “adjustments” by UNDP has ended up skewing the Indian data and rankings.

What needs to be done?

Government need to publish authentic data: Indian government departments need to publish data in time for important indices. This may be a problem as India’s financial year runs three months behind the calendar year, but an advance estimate can be published and revised later (same as for GDP).

Indian agencies should calculate relevant indicators: Indian agencies should not just provide raw data to external agencies but take the extra step of calculating the relevant indicator. This is not difficult as standard methodologies are available.

For instance, the Registrar General of India should publish an official estimate for life expectancy every year. This will reduce the scope for manipulation by external agencies and put the burden of proof on them.

Overall, Indian government departments need to proactively engage with international indices and surveys – both to provide timely data and to challenge inaccurate estimates where appropriate.