India’s pivot to Eurasia

India’s pivot to Eurasia

Article:

1. S Raghvan, Convenor of the National Security Advisory Board expressed his views on how new Eurasian dynamics transform with an inevitable impact on SCO.

Important Analysis:

2. The SCO summit was held recently in Qingdao, China.

3. India attended SCO meeting for the first time as a full member.

4. India has been an observer since 2005.

5. Opportunities before SCO:

• Admission of India and Pakistan has expanded the geographical, demographic and economic profile of the SCO, which has about half of the world’s population and a quarter of its GDP.

6. SCO’s relevance for India:

• SCO’s relevance for India lies in geographical, economic and geopolitics.
• Its members occupy a huge landmass adjacent to India’s extended neighbourhood, where India has important economic and security interest.
• With Pakistan joining the organisation and Afghanistan and Iran are also looking for membership, the logic of India’s membership becomes stronger.
• In the formative years of SCO, Russia strongly pushed India to join it, to balance China’s  economic dominance in the region.
• China since consolidated its energy and economic foothold in Central Asia, where ambitious infrastructure and connectivity projects are envisaged as part of its Belt and Road Initiative(BRI).

7. India-Central Asia

• Central Asia consists of five countries (Kazakistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan) collectively known as Central Asian Republics(CAR) and Underbelly of Eurasia.

Strategic Location of Central Asia:

• Geographic location of these countries makes them a bridge between different regions of Asia and between Europe and Asia.
• India’s ties with central Asian countries has been in challenge since the break of Soviet Union due to inaccessibility caused by Pakistan and Afghanistan troubles.
• New Multimodal transport corridors now envisaged through Iran, there are again prospects of invigorating trade and investment lines with this region.

8. Positives for India:

• With new multimodal transport corridors now envisaged through Iran, there are again prospects of invigorating trade and investment links with this region.
• As per Russia, India and Pakistan would be able to solve their disputes as did the China, Russia and other SCO members.
• India can be benefitted by Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS) of the SCO, which coordinates cooperation for security and stability, through intelligence-sharing on criminal and terrorist activities.
• Defence cooperation between members will be strengthened. India has agreed to participate in the SCO’s counter-terrorism military exercises in Russia.
• Russia and China also carefully avoid strong anti-West postures in the SCO, preferring to deal with differences quietly and bilaterally.

9. Challenges

• Cooperation between India and Pakistan will remain a challenge in various areas such as defence, anti-terrorism, Afghanistan.
• Increase in dominance of China may happen if US tries to Isolate Russia and Russian dependence will increase further on Chinese Economic prowess.
• Another situation is when US military presence may decrease in the region if N. Korea and US peace process gets fruitful may change the balance of forces in favour of china.