Looking for balance in power

Looking for balance in power

Context

The Russia-India-China trilateral meet is New Delhi’s attempt to overcome challenges in ties with Moscow and Beijing

Scope of talks

The broader discussions, according to a joint communique of the 15th meeting, “took place in the backdrop of the political scenario in West Asia and North Africa, numerous challenges in putting the world economy back on the growth track, concerns relating to terrorism, transnational organised crime, illicit drug trafficking, food security, and climate change.” 

Growing Divergences

But what was perhaps interesting was Russia and China’s continued attempts to frame global and regional politics through a similar lens, and the growing divergences between India and them

Russia wants India to join OBOR

• Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made it clear that he believes that India can benefit by joining China’s Belt and Road Initiative
• The specific problem in this regard should not make everything else conditional to resolving political issues

Criticism of Closed bloc arrangements/Cliques/spheres of Influence

Targeting India’s participation in the ‘Quad’, he also underlined that a sustainable security architecture cannot be achieved in the Asia-Pacific region with “closed bloc arrangements.”

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi also cautioned against “spheres of influence” and “cliques” by arguing that China opposed “hegemony and power politics and disagree with the sphere of influence and cliques and promote the democratisation of international relations.” 

Needs for Cooperation

China, meanwhile, continued to take an aggressive posture on Doklam and its aftermath. China and India have far greater shared strategic interests than differences, and far greater needs for cooperation than partial friction

Tension in the air

The tensions in the trilateral framework are inevitable given the changes in the global geopolitical environment

The origins

The original conception of this framework was a response to a very different global environment

• Proposal from Russian PM in 1998

The proposal for a Moscow-Beijing-Delhi ‘strategic triangle’ had originally come from former Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov during his visit to India in 1998, when he argued that such an arrangement would represent a force for greater regional and international stability

• No Response from India or China

This did not elicit as enthusiastic a response from China and India as Russia had perhaps hoped for. Thereafter, the three countries continued to focus on improving the nature of their bilateral relationships, maintaining a safe distance from the Primakov proposal

• A start in 2002

But, this idea of a ‘strategic triangle’ took a tangible form when former Foreign Ministers of Russia, China, and India — Igor Ivanov, Tang Jiaxuan and Yashwant Sinha — met on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York in September 2002

• Regular Feature now

Despite the fact that nothing concrete emerged out of that meeting, it represented the first major attempt by the three nations to deliberate on world affairs, and since then has become a regular feature of interactions among the three states. 

Different Expectations of each nation

The three nations had very different expectations from this trilateral 

Russia’s move against the US

• Russia’s role was key as its loss of power and influence on the world scene was a major cause of concern for its leadership
• Russia tried to establish itself as the hub of two bilateral security partnerships that could be used to counteract U.S. power and influence in areas of mutual concern.

China’s ally against US

• China emerged as a rising power that saw the U.S. as the greatest obstacle, if it was to achieve a pre-eminent position in the global political hierarchy
• As a consequence, China recognised the importance of cooperating with Russia to check U.S. expansionism in the world, even if only for the short term

American Policies brought both nations closer

In fact, American policies towards Russia and China moved the two states closer to each other, leading to the formation of a new balance of power against the U.S.

India’s stance

India, on the other hand, had different considerations, as it was still far from becoming a global power of any reckoning.

Way of bringing balance in the global order

India saw in the trilateral a mechanism to bring greater balance in the global order as it believed that a unipolar U.S.-dominated world was not in the best interests of weaker states like itself, even as strategic convergence deepened between Washington and Delhi. 

Strengthening of Bilateral Partnerships only

Moreover, all three countries realised the enormous potential in the economic, political, military and cultural realms if bilateral relationships among them were adequately strengthened.

No Major Outcomes of the Trilateral

It merely resulted in declarations which were often critical of the West, and of the U.S. in particular.

Changing bilateral relationships

Yet this was also a period which saw significant shifts in Indo-U.S. ties as bilateral relations expanded while Russian and Chinese links with the U.S. have witnessed a downward shift.

The Joint Declaration

The joint declaration of the recent trilateral meeting said: “Those committing, organising, inciting or supporting terrorist acts” must be held accountable and brought to justice under international law, including the principle of “extradite or prosecute.” 

Stopped Short

It stopped short of naming Pakistan-based terror groups such as Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, something that India would have liked in line with the most recent BRICS declaration. 

Chinese resurgence affecting the arrangement

• An arrangement that had started with an attempt to manage American unipolarity is now being affected fundamentally by Chinese resurgence
• Both Russia and India are having to deal with the externalities being generated by China’s rise 

Multipolar world order

• While Russia is getting closer to China, India is trying to leverage its partnership with other like-minded states in the wider Indo-Pacific region
• As a multipolar world order takes shape, India will have to engage with multiple partners so as to limit bilateral divergences. 

Challenges

The Russia-India-China template comes with its own set of challenges

China’s Global Times, commenting on the recent trilateral, suggested that “the leaders of the three only meet with each other on international occasions,” adding, “this indicates it does not have high status in diplomacy and cannot bear more functions.”

India is capable of holding its own

• While this may be true, New Delhi’s continued engagement with the duo suggests that India is today confident of setting its own agenda in various platforms
• Just as China engages with the U.S. on the one hand and with Russia on the other, a rising India is quite capable of managing its ties with Washington, Beijing and Moscow simultaneously
• It will not always be easy, but in an age when the certitudes of the past are fast vanishing, diplomacy will have to tread a complex path.