Needed, a more unified Asian voice for Afghanistan

Relevance: Central Asia’s role in dealing with the situation in Afghanistan and how India can play its part.

Synopsis: In order to emerge as a key player in the post-US Afghanistan, India needs to collaborate actively with Central Asian republics.

India has been left out

Events of the past few years, and the decisions of the Troika (three powerful states of US, China and Russia) have kept India out of a leading role in Afghanistan.

• Pak role is recognized: Since 2019, the Troika has met with Pakistan (Troika plus) in order to discuss Afghanistan’s future, one in which the Taliban gains an important if not controlling role in Kabul.
• New formation on regional connectivity: The U.S. has announced a new, surprise formation of a “Quad” on regional connectivity — U.S.-Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan that does not include India. The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) is conducting trial runs of truck convoys from Tashkent to Karachi and back.

Why India is not a part of the global Afghan reconciliation process?

India’s efforts to build on trade with Afghanistan, construction of various development projects, and educational and training opportunities for Afghan youth have been appreciated. But India’s efforts could not transform into something big enough to convince the world of it being a major player in Afghanistan. This happened due to various limitations:

• Hesitation to open talks with Taliban: New Delhi’s original hesitation in opening talks with the Taliban, which even Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani had suggested, has cut India out of the current reconciliation process.
• Limited access to Afghanistan:
  • End of dialogue with Pakistan: The end of any formal dialogue between India and Pakistan since 2016 and trade since 2019, have resulted in Pakistan blocking India’s over-land access to Afghanistan.
  • A costly alternative: India’s alternative route through Chabahar, though operational, cannot be viable or cost-effective also long as U.S. sanctions on Iran are in place.
  • Tensions with China: India’s boycott of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2017, and now tensions at the Line of Actual Control after the Chinese aggression in 2020, make another route to Afghanistan off-limits.

And without being a major player in Afghanistan, one cannot expect to be a part of the reconciliation process now.

India can hope to change this scenario by collaborating with the ‘Stans’ (five Central Asian republics of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan).

View of the Stans

Afghan Strategy of the Five Central Asian republics is based on following three parameters:

• Access through Afghanistan: Prosperity for these land-locked countries can only flow from access through Afghanistan to the closest ocean, i.e. the Indian Ocean.
• Guarantee of a safe passage by Taliban: All transit through Afghanistan depends on guarantees of safe passage from the Taliban, backed by the group’s mentors in Pakistan.
• Each of the “Stans” are now a part of China’s BRI, and tying their connectivity initiatives with Beijing’s will bring investment and a control over Pakistan to a degree.

Common concerns

India and Central Asian countries share some common concerns:

• Afghanistan overrun by the Taliban and under Pakistan’s thumb
• Battles at their borders
• Safe havens for jihadist terror groups inside Afghanistan
• the spill-over of radicalism into their own countries.

Suggestions/Measures

• Financial assistance: It is necessary for India to work with Central Asian republics, and other neighbors to ensure finances for the government in Kabul, particularly to ensure that the government structure does not collapse.
• Support against terror: As part of the SCO’s Regional Anti-Terrorist Structure (RATS), India must also step up its engagement with the Central Asian countries on fighting terror. India can support the Afghan National Defense and Security Forces (ANDSF) in terms of air power.

Conclusion

Discussions with Taliban will be fruitless unless a less tactical and more strategic engagement with Pakistan is also envisaged. A more tightly knit South Asia, which is critical for peace and order in Afghanistan, can only transpire if India & Pakistan sort address their issues first.

Terms to know:

• RATS