Quad confusion (TH Op) 

Quad confusion (TH Op) 

Context

More than 10 days after the Quadrilateral meeting, or ‘Quad’, involving secretary-level officials of India, Japan, Australia and the U.S., the dust is yet to settle on just what was decided among them

What

The differences in statements show that the countries lack a common aim

Four separate statements

A cursory look at these statements reveals the basic differences in intent: while all four referred to keeping a “free and open Indo-Pacific”, the Ministry of External Affairs statement did not mention upholding “maritime security” as an objective, while the statements of the U.S., Australia and Japan did. Similarly, the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs made no mention of enhancing “connectivity” as an aim, which the other three did

Effect: The Quad is yet to decide what its real aim is: maritime security, connectivity, countering China’s moves in the Indo-Pacific and on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), or a combination of all three. 

Only India openly in opposition to BRI amongst the Quad members

• U.S. President lavished praise on Chinese President Xi Jinping and the two signed a slew of agreements, including one for a joint fund for the $40 billion Silk Road Fund meant to finance BRI projects
• Despite all the concerns expressed by the countries of the Quad, India remains the only one to openly oppose the BRI

On the maritime front: India is the only country in the Quad that is not part of a military alliance

India declined Australia’s request to join the Malabar exercises, and just days before the Quad, it was said there were no plans for joint patrols with the U.S., or any country that is not a “maritime neighbour” of India, which would rule out Australia and Japan too

Effect: If India’s intentions are only to patrol the Indian Ocean part of the Indo-Pacific, it remains to be seen what reciprocal value the Quad would have

Where the government stands on India’s position in the world?

How would India explain not joining a security cooperation arrangement within the Quad, even though it joined the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation this year?

Conclusion

Giving in to demands for greater engagement in the East with the Quad will need to be calibrated with concrete outcomes on India’s concerns with terror from Pakistan, and a free hand to pursue ties with Iran.