Rising climate risks

Source: The post is based on the article “Rising climate risks” published in Business Standard on 30^th August 2023.

Syllabus: GS 3 – Environment – Climate change

Relevance: About increasing climate risks.

News: The article explains the current situation of climate change and measures required to address it.

What are some of the consequences resulting from climate change?

Global temperatures hit record highs in June and July 2023. Forest fires, ocean temperatures, and extreme weather events are on the rise.

Despite 30 years of climate action, greenhouse gas emissions increased from 30 to 48 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent between 1990 and 2019.

What are the causes of increasing GHG emission?

Developing countries are the major contributors to the increase in greenhouse gas emissions.

However, this is not a violation of the UNFCCC because it recognizes the legitimate needs of developing countries to achieve sustained economic growth and eradicate poverty.

The Berlin mandate of the UNFCCC recognized that developed countries have emitted more greenhouse gases historically, and they need to take the lead in reducing emissions.

However, China’s emissions should not be included in the developing country emission estimates.

Why should China’s emissions be excluded from developing country estimates?

China’s per capita emissions have increased significantly since 1990, accounting for 54% of the global emission rise and surpassing Western Europe’s per capita emissions. Hence, China should be excluded from the category of developing countries.

However, between 1990 and 2020, emissions from developed countries have also decreased significantly.

What factors have led to the reduction in emissions in developed nations?

GHG emissions fell by 2724 million tonnes CO2e from 1990 to 2020. This drop is mainly due to industry collapse in Russia and East Europe, rather than climate-friendly policies.

Therefore, developed countries and China remain primary concerns for climate risk management because their per capita emissions are higher than India and other developing countries.

Moreover, the current efforts taken for climate justice is also not efficient.

Must Read: On climate change, wealthy nations must show the way and The economics of climate change in India

What is causing the lack of effectiveness in current climate mitigation efforts?

Climate justice hasn’t influenced global climate diplomacy. The Paris Agreement changed diplomacy by easing pressure on developed nations and including developing countries in mitigation commitments.

The net-zero announcements of high-emitting developing countries are also not fair because to limit global temperature increase to 1.5°C, total emissions should be averaging at 1.8 tonnes per capita until the net-zero target.

Globally, India is the only country that is on track to meet the 1.8 tonne target.

What can be done to mitigate climate change?

First, major changes are needed in production and consumption patterns to prevent climate change.

In developed countries, the challenge is greater because the present production and consumption patterns enhance climate risks. Whereas, in developing countries, it is easier to reorient the future development patterns.

Second, developing country activist groups and research organizations need to increase their pressure-generating efforts, especially in India.

Third, there is a need to project the significant shortfall in commitments from the US, China, and other developed countries. This projection should align with fair distribution of mitigation responsibility.