Spaces, not embraces: 

Spaces, not embraces: 

(Microscopic view on the countries’ friendship)

Context:

• The impact of a closer friendship with the U.S. can be better judged by the challenges that the superpower’s retreating global role presents

Background

• In early 1987, U.S. President, Ronald Reagan had difficult choices to make on the future of Afghanistan.
• As the Soviet Union planned its pull-out, the U.S. government, more notably the Central Investigation Agency, had been arming mujahideen fighters trained by Pakistan’s Inter-Services Intelligence to hasten the process by pushing out the Soviet army.
• Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi was, given his close ties with the Soviet leadership and a growing friendship with Reagan, trying to advocate a path of conciliation that clashed with Pakistan’s plans to control Kabul: a government of national unity supporting the newly appointed President Najibullah.
• After months of considering the Indian case for a “non-aligned” Afghanistan, however, Reagan and the U.S. Congress chose the other course, transferring funds, arms and responsibility for the outcome to Pakistan.
• In 2001, after the 9/11 attacks, U.S. President George W.
• Bush had a similarly complex decision to make on the future of Afghanistan.
• The attacks had brought a rare moment of global unity, one which saw Russia, India, China, Pakistan and Iran pledge support to the U.S.’s plan to defeat the Taliban and its al-Qaeda guests.
• Within months, however, the bonhomie was banished with three words, as Mr. Bush pronounced Iran, along with Iraq and North Korea, as the “Axis of Evil”, choosing Pakistan as its ally to continue its war in Afghanistan.

Current Scenario – US’s Role

• In 2017, President Donald Trump is in the same place as his administration finalises its Af-Pak policy review to be announced in July, and New Delhi once again has its hopes up that the U.S. will take a stern view of Pakistan’s support to the Taliban and its use of terror groups that target both Afghan and Indian interests.
• The present U.S President’s first foreign visit was to Saudi Arabia, where he presided over a grand show of Arab-Islamic unity.
• His wholehearted support to Saudi Arabia, his call for a unity of the Abrahamic faiths (Christianity, Islam and Judaism) and his open call to isolate Iran, however, came unstuck within days.
• The U.S President plans for troop levels in Afghanistan seem modest at best.
• He would like the numbers of American troops to add to the current 8,400 capped at 3,900.
• Given that President Barack Obama’s 2009 surge of troops to 100,000 had little impact on the war in Afghanistan; this implies that the U.S. will simply cede more space to Russian-led efforts.
• India thus risks becoming partner to a player whose military role in Afghanistan is in decline over a more nascent alliance.

Concern’s of India

• Saudi Arabia and several other nations decided to blockade Qatar, calling for it to cut ties with Iran, ban the Muslim Brotherhood and shut down the Al Jazeera media network which they said targets the rest of the Gulf’s leadership.
• But Indian External Affairs Minister, Sushma Swaraj, dismissed fears of any impact on India from the move.
• But the government must go beyond the obvious to assess its impact.
• The US President plans for troop levels in Afghanistan seem modest at best.
• He would like the numbers of American troops to add to the current 8,400 capped at 3,900.
• Given that President Barack Obama’s 2009 surge of troops to 100,000 had little impact on the war in Afghanistan, this implies that the U.S. will simply cede more space to Russian-led efforts.
• India thus risks becoming partner to a player whose military role in Afghanistan is in decline over a more nascent alliance.

Conclusion:

• U.S President’s decision on Afghanistan must be closely watched, but without unrealistic expectations.
• For India, the impact of U.S President’s world view and international policies are better judged not by the closeness of his embraces with India’s Prime Minister, but the spaces that he is ceding across the globe.