The China plan — On Myanmar-Bangladesh deal on Rohingya

The China plan — On Myanmar-Bangladesh deal on Rohingya

Context

The devil will be in the detail of the Myanmar-Bangladesh deal on Rohingya repatriation

China’s 3 point Plan

• The agreement reached between Myanmar and Bangladesh to repatriate Rohingya refugees suggests that the Chinese proposal has found some traction as a solution to the crisis

1. Bilateral Talks: Under the plan, Myanmar and Bangladesh were to hold bilateral talks and reach a repatriation agreement – which has been achieved
2. Ceasefire: However, the first step in Beijing’s approach – which involved a declaration of ceasefire in Rakhine to halt further displacement and bringing immediate relief to the state’s devastated Rohingya – has not taken effect
3. Economic Assistance: If this were to happen, the third part of the proposal will presumably take effect, with China providing economic assistance for the development of the Rakhine region as part of a long-term solution

Why China is being proactive in this case?

• Economic Interests: Rakhine is an important link in its Belt and Road Initiative China is building a $7.3 billion deep-water port in the province and has invested $2.45 billion to build an oil and gas pipeline connecting coastal Rakhine to Yunnan.China has put pressure on Myanmar because a protracted conflict in Rakhine will be decidedly against Beijing’s economic interests
• Status: The signing of a repatriation deal suggests this pressure tactic is working.

• Good Relations: Beijing enjoys good relations with both Bangladesh and Myanmar

Details of the agreement still blurry

Number/Timeline Unclear

The number of Rohingya who will be sent back, and the timeline, have not been revealed

Will of the Refugees

It is also not clear whether the refugees themselves want to go back to a place they had fled in such perilous circumstances. Or in the event they do, where they will be resettled.

China sees this as economic problem

From the details of the plan it is clear that China sees the Rohingya crisis as an economic problem, given that its solution is centred on development

Real problem is political

While economic assistance is essential, the real problem is arguably deeply political, and there needs to be an accompanying political solution.

Conclusion

Any proposal can only make limited headway unless Myanmar is willing to roll back the institutional barriers that render Rohingya second-class people. Unless they are accepted as equal citizens, there is unlikely to be a long-term solution to the Rakhine unrest.