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News: The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) released its yearbook a few days back, highlighting some worrying trends of the past year in international security.
The expected rise of the global nuclear arsenal was the chief cause of concern.
The comprehensive report claims that while absolute numbers of nuclear arsenal have reduced, they are expected to grow over the next decade.
What are the key findings of the report?
During 2012-2021, military spending as a percentage of gross domestic product has largely been stable. If anything, the average worldwide trend has been slightly downward.
For more: Read here.
What have been the trends wrt global arms imports?
Military modernization is seen to be a global trend.
All nuclear weapon owning states have, over the years, stated and worked upon their intention to modernize multiple facets of their armed forces, which may result in aggravating security concerns for other countries.
The yearbook has highlighted India as being the top weapons importer during the 2017-2021 period.
What are the key developments/concerns flagged by the yearbook?
As per the report:
Some worrying indicators of an unstable system. a) low level border clashes between India and Pakistan, b) the civil war in Afghanistan, and c) the armed conflict in Myanmar.
Cause of concern trends: a) Chinese-American rivalry, b) involvement of state and non-state actors in multiple conflicts, and c) the challenge that climatic and weather hazards pose.
Key developments:
– The marginal downsizing observed in the nuclear arsenal has come mostly from the U.S. and Russia dismantling retired warheads.
– But the Russian invasion of Ukraine has raised some serious concerns because of the continuous rhetoric of a possible use of nuclear weapons.
China’s recent activities surrounding construction of 300 new nuclear missile silos.
Over in the subcontinent, India and Pakistan seem to be making gains over their nuclear arsenal (in absolute numbers).
Iran increased its enrichment of Uranium-235 to 60% in 2021.
Recently, the leaders of the P5 countries (China, France, Russia, the U.K. and the U.S.) issued a joint statement affirming the belief that “a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought”.
The joint statement also highlighted their seemingly collective belief that bilateral and multilateral arms control agreements and commitments were indeed important.
The nation states are making sure to remain well within the ambit of what the treaties and agreements ask for. The tactic here seems to be to milk the treaties and agreements to the hilt.
What lies ahead?
The recent geopolitical events transpiring around the world in practically all regions have made the global security climate more unstable.
This instability is further aided by actions of authoritarian leaders of not just non-democratic systems, but also of strongmen leaders of democratic systems.
A strong political opposition would be needed to help keep the ruling dispensation in check.
Furthermore, the two largest nuclear weapons holding states need to take on a more engaging role in the international arena.
Source: This post is based on the article “The fragile state of nuclear disarmament” published in The Hindu on 16th June 22.
