The NPT is beginning to look shaky

Source: The post is based on the article “The NPT is beginning to look shaky” published in The Hindu on 3^rd September 2022.

Syllabus: GS 2 – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

Relevance: About the present state of the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Treaty.

News: Recently, the Tenth Review Conference of the Parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) concluded. After four weeks of debate and discussion, the delegates failed to agree on a final document.

What is the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) Treaty?

The NPT was negotiated during the 1960s to reconcile three competing objectives 1) Controlling the further spread of nuclear weapons beyond the P-5 countries that had already tested; 2) Committing to negotiating reductions of nuclear arsenals leading to their elimination; and 3) Sharing benefits of peaceful applications of nuclear science and technology.

What are the successes of NPT?

The first objective was strongly supported by the nuclear-haves; the other two were demands made by the nuclear have-nots.

Achievement of the non-proliferation objective: This objective has been achieved in large measure. In the last 50 years, only four more countries have gone on to test and develop nuclear arsenals. These are India, Israel, North Korea and Pakistan.

Note: South Africa developed nuclear weapons, but the apartheid regime destroyed them and joined NPT in 1991.

Non-proliferation post-1991: After the end of the Cold War, non-proliferation remained a shared priority for the major powers and the International Atomic Energy Agency, set up originally to promote international co-operation became better known as the non-proliferation watchdog.

What are the failures of NPT?

Progress on the other two objectives took a back seat.

No meaningful discussions or negotiations on nuclear disarmament have ever taken place in the NPT framework. For instance, since 1970, when the NPT entered into force, only four of the 10 review conferences have concluded with a consensus document.

Unity of P5 against universal condemnation: When the nuclear have-nots suggested a universal condemnation of all threats of nuclear use, all five nuclear haves joined together to resist such moves.

Halt in progress between US and Russia: Arms control talks between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R./Russia did bring down their collective arsenals from a high of nearly 65,000 in the early 1980s to less than 12,000 warheads. But this process has been halted.

For example, the U.S. withdrew from the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty in 2002 and from the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty in 2019.

The only surviving arms control treaty between Russia and the U.S. is the New START Treaty which imposes a ceiling on operational strategic nuclear weapons of 700 launchers and 1,550 warheads each. It expires in 2026 and there are no signs of any follow-on discussions.

Rising China and associated nuclear threats: While withdrawing from INF, the US stated that China’s missile developments created new security threats that needed to be addressed. The US even invited China to join in the arms control process. But the requests were rejected. Analysts suggest that China may be on track to expand its arsenal from current levels of approximately 350 warheads to over 1,000 by 2030.

What is the status of other treaties on nuclear non-proliferation?

Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW): It is also called Ban Treaty. Frustrated by the absence of progress on nuclear disarmament, the nuclear have-nots successfully negotiated this Treaty in 2017.

All 86 signatories are nuclear have-nots and parties to the NPT. The TPNW creates a new legal instrument. But the nuclear-haves and their allies ignored the Vienna meeting.

Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT): It was concluded in 1996 but has yet to formally enter into force because two major powers, the U.S. and China, have yet to ratify it.

1985 Reagan-Gorbachev declaration states that ‘a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought’. The statement remains valid. Nobody wants a breakdown of the NPT but sustaining it requires facing up to today’s political realities. Without addressing the new challenges, the NPT will weaken.