Treaty that backfired?

Treaty that backfired?

Context

The Shimla Agreement of 1972

India’s objectives behind Shimla Agreement

• Alasting solution to the Kashmir issue

Or, failing that, an agreement that would constrain Pakistan from involving third parties in discussions about the future of Kashmir

• New Beginnings

It was hoped that the Agreement would allow for a new beginning in relations with Pakistan based upon Pakistan’s acceptance of the new balance of power

• Achieving above objectives without pushing Pakistan to the wall

It left open the possibility of achieving both these objectives without pushing Pakistan to the wall and creating a revanchist anti-India regime.

Failure of the Shimla Agreement

• Military in power: India was unable to prevent the military from taking power in Islamabad in 1977 and executing Bhutto
• Nuclear Deterrence: Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear capability created a situation of deterrence negating India’s superiority in conventional power and instated de facto military parity between the two countries.

Example:

• The 1999 Kargil War validated the success of deterrence when India desisted from taking the war into Pakistani territory.
• Deterrence also provided the shield for the Pakistani military to take the “war” into Indian Kashmir through its proxies, the terrorist groups created and supported by the ISI.
• Nuclear weapons prevented India from retaliating on Pakistani territory.

Conclusion

The Shimla Agreement did not fully achieve any of India’s objectives. If anything, it may have whetted the Pakistani military’s appetite to try to turn Kashmir into India’s Bangladesh.