Two-sided triangle – on Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ministerial summit

Source: The post is based on an article “Two-sided triangle” published in Business Standard on 29^th April 2023.

Syllabus: GS 2 – India and its Neighborhood – Relations

Relevance: Comprehensive National Power (CNP) of India, Pakistan and China

News: The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) ministerial summit is going on in Delhi. India, Pakistan and China are its members among others.

The article discusses Comprehensive National Power (CNP) of each of the three countries post-2014 decade.

What is CNP?

CNP takes into account a combination of a lot of factors such as the size and growth of the economy, the strength and cohesion of society, and the firepower and quality of the military, to trade and soft power.

CNP is also defined by how a nation affects their friends, adversaries, and neighbours.

How is the CNP of Pakistan?

Pakistan is today the weakest it’s been since the eve of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The economy is bankrupt, and the growth rate for this year is only 0.5 percent.

The income gap between Pakistan and not just India, but all of the Subcontinent, is widening. It’s ruled by a coalition government.

Further, Pakistan’s support for Taliban and its ideological victory in Afghanistan has left it without any support from other countries.

Even, the Gulf Arabs have moved on from their commitment have no patience for Pakistan and its demands.

Due to this, Pakistan is now merely a vassal state of China. It now has to compete with other powerful vassal sate of China such as Russia.

Hence, Pakistan is left with only one card to play, i.e., India. It keeps the Indian military engaged along the western borders which is valuable to China.

How is the CNP of China compared to India?

China has witnessed growth in almost all the areas including technology, trade, military power, social cohesion and rising global stature.

This has enabled China to close the gap with the US and the larger Western power, and increase the gap with the rest, especially India. Further, the war in Ukraine has made Russia more dependent on China.

Whereas, India on no parameters of CNP have narrowed the gap with China.

India has grown phenomenally in many areas, but the inherited gap is too much with China, that even if India grows faster now, the distance between the two will increase.

China’s economy is more than five times India’s and even if Chinese growth slows down to less than half of India’s, the gap will still rise.

China has also stretched India’s militarily along both frontiers and India has no option except to deploy it military along the borders.

However, India’s CNP when compared to the previous years has improved. India’s is a remarkable success story of a country becoming so enormously powerful long before it became rich.

Must Read: SCO meet highlights China’s growing role in Inner Asia, India’s challenge

What is the way ahead for India?

India faces a strategic challenge of the triangulation between China and Pakistan. Therefore, India needs to take efforts to close its growing gap with China while defending itself from China and Pakistan.