| Introduction: Provide a brief intro about the developments in the Ukraine crisis. Body: Provide implications of the Ukraine crisis for India. Conclusion: Provide a way forward |
Russia has amassed a large no. of troops on the Ukraine border. US has ordered evacuation of dependents of diplomatic personnel and Nato has been authorized to transfer military equipment to Ukraine. So, the probability of military action is, perhaps, the highest now.
Although India’s borders are very far away from the point of conflict, there will be implications for India, in case of Ukraine conflict deepens.
Implications of Ukraine conflict for India
Energy security: any military conflict will lead to sanctions against Russia. In turn, Russia is expected to cut gas supply to Europe in response. It will push the LNG prices up, adding to the problems of India, already suffering from a high oil price.
China-Russia Relations: Conflict will increase the dependency of Russia on China. It will create challenges for India in maintaining its good relations with Russia and getting adequate supplies of weapons to defend its borders.
Relations with the US: The India-US dynamic is central to India’s strategy to counter China, managing Indo-Pacific and creating supply chain alternatives. It’s quite possible that the US will want India to recalibrate its position on Russia, in return for its cooperation. Thus, India might have to make some difficult diplomatic calls.
Possible rise of China: During conflict, there is a possibility that China achieves the reunification of Taiwan, due to the occupancy of the US in Ukraine. In this scenario, China will be able to assert its influence on Indo-Pacific and Quad may lose its relevance as a countervailing grouping. This scenario will create great regional difficulty for India.
Therefore, in sum, a military conflict in Ukraine is undoubtedly strategically undesirable for India. India should prepare a course of action for the different scenarios in advance, with minute calculations, as maintaining good relations with both US and Russia is important to counter regional challenges.
