US-North Korea:A Deal that can be done.

US-North Korea:A Deal that can be done.

Article:

1. Zorawar Daulet Singh ,Fellow at the Center for Policy Research, New Delhi analyses the issue of cancellation of  US-North Korea summit

Important Analysis:

2. Mr Trump’s foreign policy has been erratic and inconsistent.Trump has cancelled a June 12th Summit meeting with North Korea.
3. The US National Security System is dominated by traditionalists who fear change.
4. In the unipolar world order US held sway over all geopolitical and geoeconomic matters.
5. But there is ample evidence of an emerging multi polar world and waning of America’s relative
   strength.
6. The US under Trump would not easily adjust to the emerging global balance of power.
7. For North Korea, nuclear weapons are the only reliable way to ensure the security of its state and survival of the regime.
8. Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (North Korea)conducted its first nuclear test in 2006.
9. The process of nuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula saw a sustained progress over a decade. It has now acquired credible deterrence capacity along with ballistic missile testing.
10. In 2017 when North Korea tested an Intercontinental Ballistic Missile(ICBM), USA realised that North Korea posed a real threat to it.
11. Russia and China, as neighbours are concerned with the stability of the Korean peninsula.
12. The regional context to conclude a deal was formed with favourable changes in the South Korean domestic politics.
13. The Proposed summit created the hope that North Korea might stop its quest for intercontinental nuclear weapons capability in exchange for a gradual normalisation of ties with the U.S. and lifting of multilateral economic sanctions.
14. Issues in finalizing the deal:
    (i)U.S. is in favour of complete de-nuclearisation whereas North Korea wants to maintain the right to retain an undefined level of nuclear weapon capability as an insurance measure of last resort.
    (ii)The traditionalists in U.S. fear that a shifting status quo might undermine US’s military alliances in East Asia.China and Russia might make use of this opportunity to pursue their geoeconomic plans in the region.
    (iii)A successful deal implies that U.S. will no longer be able to hold influence in the region as before.
15. Impact of a nuclear deal:
    (i)North Korea would gain regime and national legitimacy, assurance of survival and an opportunity to economically transform itself.
    (ii)A deal would confine North Korea to a regional nuclear power, which would also enable it to preserve a degree of autonomy from China.
    (iii)It would stabilise the broader Northeast Asian setting and thereby increase the security of its two key allies, South Korea and Japan.
    (iv)A major potential flashpoint in China-U.S. relations would be removed.
16. Trump hinted that the cancelled summit could take place at a later date.
17. North Korea said that it would meet US at any time to talk.