A war that ends the Saudi-Israel ‘normalisation’ process

Source: This post has been created based on the article “A war that ends the Saudi-Israel ‘normalisation’ process” published in The Hindu on 14^th October 2023.

UPSC Syllabus Topic: GS Paper 2 International Relations – Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests.

News: This article discusses the negative fallout of the recent Hamas attack on Israel on the normalization of bilateral relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia.

The recent Hamas attack on Israel has firmly overturned Israeli efforts, supported by the United States, to promote a normalisation of relations with Arab states (especially Saudi Arabia) without considering the Palestinian issue.

The Gaza war has placed the Palestinian issue at the centre of West Asian politics.

What were the conditions demanded from USA by Saudi Arabia for normalization of relations?

The normalisation deal depended on 3 conditions that Saudi Arabia had placed before USA:

1) U.S. approval for a civilian nuclear programme that provides for uranium enrichment within the country.

2) U.S. security guarantee for the country.

3) Sales of advanced weapons.

In return, U.S. had insisted that Saudi Arabia back U.S. interests on oil prices, dilute its ties with China and deepen strategic engagement with the U.S.

What were the various concerns regarding Saudi Arabia’s demands?

1) Saudi Arabia’s credentials as an authoritarian state.

2) Possibility of Saudi Arabia developing its own nuclear programme.

3) Saudi Arabia’s poor human rights record at home and in Yemen.

4) Concerns about Saudi insistence that arms supplies be accompanied by a transfer of technology to develop its arms industry.

Palestinian interests and concerns did not figure in these normalisation discussions.

What is the Iran angle?

There are arguments that Iran has instigated the Hamas attacks to block Saudi Arabia’s normalisation initiative with Israel.

However, this argument has little credibility.

This is because Saudi-Iran ties had already been normalised under Chinese mediation: embassies have been re-opened, high-level visits conducted and economic cooperation expanded.

What is Saudi Arabia’s changed foreign policy stance in the context of the Hamas attacks?

Saudi Arabia has recognised that peace and stability in the region are not possible without Palestinian interests being addressed.

Saudi Foreign Office mentioned the dangers of the explosion of the situation as a result of the occupation, the deprivation of the Palestinian people of their legitimate rights and the repetition of systematic provocations.

Lately, Saudi Arabia has been pursuing its foreign policy engagements in terms of its own interests, without any U.S. involvement. This reflects its assertion of strategic autonomy.

It rejected the U.S. interest in building an anti-China coalition globally and an anti-Iran cabal regionally. Also, it did not heed to U.S.’s wishes on oil prices or diluting its comprehensive strategic ties with China.

Promoting the Palestinian cause will now form an important part of this foreign policy approach.