Falling Fertility Rate in India – Blessing in disguise for India

Source – This post on Falling Fertility Rate in India – Blessing in disguise for India has been created based on the article “India’s fall in fertility rate may be a boon in disguise” published in “The Indian Express” on 4 April 2024.

UPSC Syllabus – GS Paper 1 – Society – Population and Associated Issues

Context – The Lancet has recently released a report where it estimated that the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) for India will go down to 1.29 by 2051. This estimate is based on a complex demographic modelling that was done for 204 countries as part of the global burden of disease study.

The TFR used for projecting the population by the government’s technical group is 1.94 for the period 2021-2025 and declining to only 1.73 during 2031-2035. Further, as per UN Population Division, India will have a population of close to 1.7 billion by 2065, before it starts declining. These predictions are higher than those given by the study in The Lancet.  All these imply that India’s population may stabilize below the 1.7 billion mark much before 2065.

What are the reasons for demographic transition in India?

There are several factors that have triggered a demographic transition in India such as-

1) There has been the rapid pace of economic development in India in past 2 decades.

2) There has been a significant reduction in infant and child mortality rates. It has reduced the need to have a large family for old age support.

3) Participation of women in workforce has increased due to improvement in education level.

4)The old-age security system and improvement in housing conditions have also contributed to demographic transition in India.

What is the significance of falling fertility rate for India?

1) Accelerated economic growth- With declining fertility rate, there will be a fall in the dependency rate and a larger share of working adults in the population. This will generate surplus income, which can enhance the pace of economic growth and lead to positive intergenerational transfers.

2) Improved labor productivity–

A) The decline in population growth would increase the amount of capital resources and infrastructure available in per capita terms.

B) The reduction in fertility rate would permit the relocation of resources for the education and skill development of children. A young skilled workforce would improve labor productivity.

C) Declining fertility rate will change the age distribution of the population. There would be an increase in the fraction of the labor force in the population.

3) Improvement in quality of education-With falling fertility rate, there would be a decline in the number of children enrolling in schools. This may improve educational outcomes as there will be more resources and infrastructure availability per capita.

4) Enhanced participation of women in workforce-Women are engaged in childcare at a productive period of their life. With declining fertility rate, there will be less time needed for childcare which may enhance the participation of women in workforce. For ex-improved share of women in MNREGA employment in the southern states.

5) Redistribution of workforce-Industrially developed states like southern states, and Gujarat and Maharashtra that have low fertility rates, can get cheaper labor from the northern states. This may result in improved working conditions, elimination of wage discrimination for migrant workers and the mitigation of security concerns in the receiving states through institutional safeguards.

What are the negative implications of declining fertility rate?

Read more- Young and the old – lancet report on fertility rate

India must accept the challenges of declining fertility rates and optimize the opportunity if it comes a bit ahead of the predicted time.

Question for practice

How can falling fertility rate prove to be blessing in disguise for India?