India needs a forward-looking strategy on Pakistan

Context: India’s approach is very different from the framework that emerged at the dawn of the 1990s. Since the early 1990s, the regional and international context has also altered in many ways. The balance of power between India and Pakistan has been changing. Now, it is essentially in India’s favour.

What have been the changes in India’s foreign policy with respect to Pakistan?

For nearly three decades, it was Pakistan that had the political initiative. However, in the last eight years, under the leadership of PM Modi, India has begun to reset the terms of the engagement agenda.

Early Period: After the Cold War, India was under pressure and a difficult situation. There was turmoil in Kashmir, the international focus on nuclear proliferation, and the relentless external pressure for a sustained dialogue with Pakistan.

Pakistan used a three-pronged strategy: (1) violent destabilisation of Kashmir while raising human rights concerns in global forums, (2) reopen the Kashmir question that India believed was settled after the 1971 war, and (3) leverage global nuclear concerns to force Indian concessions on Kashmir.

Therefore, Islamabad often sets preconditions for talks with India, like India should improve its human rights record in Kashmir, bring militant groups on the negotiating table, insist on Pakistan’s leadership or officers’ meetings with the Hurriyat leaders etc.

India’s military response against Pakistan’s provocative terror attacks could invite the fear of nuclear escalation and the great powers intervention.

At Present

The US-India relations have transformed, the resolution of Delhi’s dispute with the global nuclear order, etc. have improved India’s diplomatic position.

The Indian governments had laid the foundations for robust economic growth. Instead Pakistan has persistently neglected its economic challenges in context of its obsession to expand its strategic depth into Afghanistan and redefine the nature of its relations with India. This has weakened its position in relation to India.

India Three-Pronged Strategy At present

First, the present regime will not be compelled by difficult conditions and pressure. It will talk on his own terms.

Second, Delhi has been unafraid of Pakistan’s threat of nuclear escalation while responding to Pakistan’s cross-border terrorism. India’s cross-border raids on the sources of terror have enhanced India’s deterrence. India’s campaign has also resulted in greater international scrutiny of Pakistan’s support for terrorism.

Third, the present regime has reduced the scope of India’s future negotiations with Pakistan on Kashmir by changing the constitutional status of Kashmir in 2019.

Ongoing developments

In 2021, India has negotiated a ceasefire agreement with Pakistan. It agreed to reopen talks on Kashmir.

However, Pakistan is divided on its negotiating strategy. It is insisting on India to reverse all the 2019 constitutional changes in Kashmir. There will be no engagement with India if India does not “reverse” the 2019 constitutional changes in Kashmir.

Way Forward

Pakistan’s economy is in a poor state. Its diplomatic position has weakened. This might encourage Pakistan to rethink its India policies.

India should take a fresh look at its Pakistan strategy. There are issues in the effectiveness of the three-pronged policy. India should take a forward-looking strategy. India can afford to make a move.

Pakistan’s army and its political class should be more practical in engaging India. India can take bold steps like Pakistan PM Nawaz Sharif was invited to attend his inauguration in 2014.

India’s new initiatives can reinforce the positive evolution of Indian foreign policy. It can also expand the space for Indian diplomacy in the region and beyond.

Source: The post is based on an article “India needs a forward-looking strategy on Pakistan” published in the Indian Express on 31^st May 2022.